Three Things Must Be Clear Before Investing.

The "good time" is the Timing problem that is often mentioned. Qiu Guolu thinks it is an art, and it needs "understanding" or even luck.

I think the short-term (half to one year) Timing problem is indeed elusive (because it involves speculation in the minds of investors), or even unpredictable (similar to very short time weather forecasts, too many variables).

But the "Timing" in the medium to long term (3-5 or even 5-10 years) is actually a grasp of the general trend. If there is a chance to run ahead of the market, it is almost inevitable to get excess returns.

I even think that it is the key to be able to become a super class investor if we can form our own imagination of the outside world and find the difference between this imagination and the market.

"Good quality" is divided into good industry and good company, which is the focus of the whole book.

Qiu took a lot of pen and ink in the industry's choice, and found that finding "static information" such as "intrinsic characteristics" of the industry is the key to the analysis and research, rather than tracking the dynamic information such as order box office.

To see whether we really grasp the "intrinsic traits", Qiu Guolu thinks it is clear whether an industry can be summed up as "what gets the world".

For example, the high-end liquor is the winner of the brand, the low-end wine is the winner of the channel, and the electronic industry is the winner of the technology route.

Referring to "brand", Qiu Guolu thinks that it is to get differentiated products and get products.

The means.

Whether there is a brand premium, whether there is a "repeat customer" and whether the conversion cost is high enough is the three main measurement latitude of the brand.

Individuals feel that brands can be measured from the two dimensions of "awareness" and "reputation".

It is unrealistic to want to get a lot of fans' attention overnight, but there are certain ways to get a certain amount of core fans.

For example, a name with a high level of recognition and a typical product characteristic to satisfy a particular group of people, even a small number of people.

It is difficult for start-ups to have their own brands, and even for a long time they can not form real brands.

But the founder should have a good sense of brand. It is very important to form the culture of "Zhong Zhong powder" among the seed users.

In addition to the "intrinsic quality" of the industry, competition pattern is also a key point for Qiu to spend a lot of pen and ink.

Whether an industry is "moon and starry thin" or "stars" or "like stars" (a fully competitive market) usually determines the survival of practitioners in the industry, whether it is "hard not to make money" or "making money is not hard".

Before I saw more hardware and consumer goods, here I want to discuss a framework for analyzing such projects.

Given the background of "2C hardware products", I feel that the competitive elements in this field are nothing more than two categories: "product" and "channel", and at the moment should be "get the product to win the world", or even "get the product definition".

The product includes product definition (which features and functions), brand connotation, technology, manufacturing process, cost control and other elements; channels include channel distribution on line, external publicity and promotion strategy, and the provision of follow-up value-added services.

Between the two "products" and "channels", I prefer products to be more critical.

Metaphysically speaking, the essence of the Internet is to eliminate information asymmetry and eliminate intermediate links, and eventually, all "channel dividends" will converge.

In addition, the early "Taobao dividend" and "

Dividends and "vip.com dividends" have all passed. Of course, there are new towns and counties, such as T4-6's county and township channels, and micro shop channels.

In short,

"This big plate may still be a strength of execution and meticulous management.

Looking back at the "product", the good product definition, and the founder's strong "brand feeling", I feel that these are the two most valuable qualities in the initial company.

Under normal circumstances, in the past three years, I have seen nearly a thousand projects, it can be said that more than 90% of the project is dead in the "product definition" link, or just when the direction is wrong, it is impossible to run out.

Qiu Guolu's core point here is that we should strive to find and invest in the "number moon" industry, that is, if a company has established a leader status in a certain industry, it will not be late to invest again (such as Tencent and Baidu's market capitalization is still n fold), instead of trying to "count the stars", betting on the next Ali Tencent Baidu (who is the last winner in the fast changing industry).

The so-called "victory and then war", rather than "war and then win."

According to this theory, the practitioners of VC are either a group of prophets with special functions, or a group of self possessed arrogant LP.

As a younger generation, I did not intend to challenge Qiu Zong's theory, or even agree with him.

But what is worth considering is, can VC do "count the moon"? Can we anticipate which sky will brighten up, or get the telescope to count the moon?

Only by throwing bricks in this way, I hope to have more exchanges with you and count the moon together.