The Main Task Of China'S Economy Is To Keep Warm And Survive The Cold Winter.

China's real economy is not optimistic, which is reflected in bank data.

By the end of 9, the balance of non-performing loans in the banking financial institutions increased by about 500000000000 Yuan compared with the beginning of the year, the balance was nearly 2 trillion, and the non-performing loan ratio was more than 2%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points over the beginning of the year.

Since the four quarter of 2011, the banking industry has been on the rebound for 16 consecutive quarters, and the "double liter" situation has been going on for 4 years.

The performance of bank asset quality may change some of the operation expectations of overseas funds.

The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at an extremely slow rate. China must maintain economic stability, grasp the general direction of structural adjustment, and keep itself warm in the cold winter.

Rumors of capital markets are coming in like floods.

If rumors are true, the global economy will go into recession again.

One of the rumors is that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held a meeting in Washington from December 15th to 16. The Fed officials will raise the benchmark federal funds interest rate by 25 basis points, which will be the first time the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates in the past 10 years.

The two rumor is that the Federal Reserve will raise the discount rate at the special meeting held in the early hours of November 24th in Beijing, in order to preview the interest rate increase.

The second prediction has gone bankrupt, but the first prediction is getting stronger and stronger. Fed officials are adding fuel to the fire, making hawk comments at every turn, shaking the market.

The market has already shivered, hoping that the Fed officials will not enjoy the sense of authority too much.

Short division

Most currencies and commodities outside have long been the best choice for investors.

The dollar rises to the sky and gold hits the ground.

In November 24th, the international gold price hit the market at the initial level of $1070, which was once more than a 5 year low of $1066 a day.

The international silver price 24 days Asian market initially hovered around 14.10 US dollars, the overnight silver price has fallen below the 14 US dollar pass, refresh 13.89 US dollar's 5 year low.

23 Japanese copper fell 2% to 4490 U.S. dollars / ton, the first time it has fallen below 4500 US dollars since May 2009, and copper prices have dropped by nearly 32% since November last year.

Nickel price fell 6.4% to 8175 U.S. dollars / ton, a record low since 2003.

Lead and aluminum fell to their lowest level in 5 years.

Commodity prices show that the global economic recovery is a dream, not to mention the completion of industrial structure and regional pfer.

Some economies in Southeast Asia and the United Kingdom and the United States sometimes have bright spots, but it is hard to imagine that the economic prosperity of these countries can be built on the recession of other countries.

Federal Reserve

It will bring the two bottom of the global economy, and from resource to entity manufacturing industry, it will be plunged into depression. Especially in resource countries like Brazil, the situation will be even worse.

China, as a big manufacturing country, must also prepare for the long campaign and the winter.

The US economy is mixed with data.

In November 23rd, the US housing sales figures released in October, after a sharp rise of 4.7% last month, fell again this month, below the -2.0% level expected by the market, down to -3.4%.

In November, the initial value of Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index was 52.6, the lowest in October 2013 and 54.1 in October.

The real economy of the United States is fairly good. A forward-looking data shows the trend of recovery in the US manufacturing industry: 24, the German machinery and Equipment Manufacturers Association (VDMA) released data. In the first 9 months of this year, the United States replaced China as Germany's largest export market for machinery, and Germany exported to the United States 12 billion 500 million euros worth of engineering products, while exports to China amounted to 12 billion euros in the same period.

In the past 6 years, China has been Germany's largest export market for machinery and equipment.

The United States is expected to surpass France this year and become Germany's largest export market for the first time in more than 50 years.

In the first three quarters of this year, Germany's total exports to the United States and the United Kingdom increased significantly. The total export volume of engineering products in Germany in the first 9 months of this year increased by 2.6% to 116 billion euros, which helped the enterprises to get rid of the low demand of China and Russia.

But judging from the overall data and the employment participation rate in the United States, it is probably the Bronze Age of the US economy, and the golden age after World War II has long passed.

Every time the dollar rises unusually, it is all

Entering another round of recession.

From historical data, 4 US dollar gains in the past 45 years have had a major impact on the market. They were 17 measures of raising interest rates during the early 80s of last century when Volcker was chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Gulf War in 1990, the British withdrawal from the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) in 1992, and the financial crisis that broke out in 2008.

This round of US dollar inflation is likely to be even worse, with tens of billions of dollars in quantitative easing and many arbitrage currencies flowing around the world.