Economic Growth Shift Driver Factors Change Allocation Financial Assets Follow Market Rules

"China's economic growth is a demographic phenomenon. Now the disappearance of the demographic dividend has led to insufficient impetus for China's economic growth, but economic pformation has also brought some investment opportunities, adding financial assets at the right time."

Li Xunlei, vice president and chief economist of Haitong Securities, said at the sixth annual meeting of futures institutional investors that the aging of the population will boost the flow of capital from physical assets to financial products, and asset allocation will have an inflection point.

"In the first three quarters of 2015, GDP increased by 6.9% compared with the same period last year.

The contribution of growth has reached 20%, which indicates that the real economy is in recession and the activities of financial interbank pactions have increased significantly.

Li Xunlei said that when a country's economy has undergone rapid growth and its per capita income has reached a moderate level, if the pformation of the mode of economic development can not be smoothly realized, it will lead to insufficient economic growth momentum and finally stagnation.

But this phenomenon is not unique to China; Korea, Japan and other countries have experienced economic growth from high growth to medium speed growth, and the average growth rate of urbanization has begun to decrease.

Li Xunlei said that when the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, the aging of the population will increase the cost of employment, the growth of the national revenue will decline, and the debt rate will rise rapidly, which will affect infrastructure investment and public services.

With the advent of the aging population, asset allocation has been changing for a long time, which means that the real estate and deposits of Chinese residents in the past two major asset allocation themes are gradually declining.

Li Xunlei said that over the past 10 years, the wealth of Chinese residents has steadily increased, and every year the new wealth is between 200 thousand ~30 trillion yuan. At present, the total wealth of the residents has been close to 300 trillion yuan. From a horizontal perspective, the proportion of equity assets in Chinese mainland residents is too low, and property, deposits and so on are still the most important part of residents' property.

The aging of the population will boost the flow of capital from physical assets to financial products, which will be an important turning point in asset allocation in the future.

Another important trend is that enterprises will also rely on capital markets to nurture them in the future.

Li Xunlei pointed out that the aging of the population leads to a long-term decline in the rate of return on capital. Therefore, it is necessary to shift from high cost bank financing to low-cost direct financing. There are many bank outlets, many employees, and high cost. Direct financing is characterized by information sharing, which can significantly reduce the cost of financing and is suitable for the era of low capital return.

but

At the same time, at the same time, we should understand the law of China's capital market in addition to financial assets.

In addition, the contribution of investment to economic growth is also decreasing, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment and real estate investment growth have declined to varying degrees.

From January 2015 to February, the growth rate of fixed assets investment was 13.9% year-on-year, but from January 2015 to October, the growth rate of fixed asset investment declined to 10.2% year-on-year.

"By 2015, the central bank has cut interest rates six times and five times.

It has not yet effectively reduced the financing cost of the real economy, stimulating demand has not raised the economy. "

Li Xunlei believes that even if the focus of policy is from stimulating demand to improving supply, it is difficult for the economy to return to the high growth level.

China's fertility rate is declining, labor force is declining, population dividends are less and less, economic slowdown is inevitable, population mobility is decreasing, and the pace of urbanization is slowing down.

"The reason for losing money is that the turnover rate is too high.

If the annual turnover rate is 6 times, for individual investors, the market share is about 23% of the market value, but the paction volume is 85%, which means that the average turnover rate of retail investors is about 22 times.

Even after deducting the trading share of those high-frequency traders, it is estimated that the turnover rate of retail investors will exceed 15 times this year.

In view of the changing trend of this phenomenon, Li Xunlei believes that the retail market of A shares has lasted for 25 years and will continue in the future.

The main reason behind this is that the openness of the A share market is very low, and the knowledge structure of investors is limited. "Therefore, we must recognize the long-term nature of the market."

It also stressed that investors need to understand whether the liquidity of the market has been broken or not. If it is not broken, the risk premium will be greatly reduced and the risk will be great.

In addition, the introduction of the delisting system and the real registration system will accelerate the restoration of this structure, boost market development and reduce the valuation level of the market.