Wu Xiaobo'S Influence On Stock Market Crash In June

"The problem is in the temple, but the answer is in the rivers and lakes."

On the misty peak, the master of Langya Pavilion said leisurely.

Xu Xiang, the chief helper of the death squads, appeared in a toll booth on the freeway with handcuffs. He wore a Armani suit in the spring and Summer Edition of 2015. He looked like a frustrated doctor from a township health center.

This photo spread throughout the WeChat in the early morning of November 1st.

Curiously, "who took this picture and who ordered it to be released?" which boldly "Chaoyang District people" or a mysterious temple man?

In the following month, the storm in the temple seems to be getting bigger and bigger. The vice president of Yao Gang, the chief executive of the rescue market and the chief executive who has been issuing the trial power for thirteen years, was first pferred to custody, and then appeared in a public place, followed by rumors.

Since the stock market avalanche in June, a great capital feast has suddenly been blown up by the gale, the banquet is overturned, the flower branches are broken, and the highest level of anger can be imagined.

If the capital bubble is broken, the original layout of pformation will not be mentioned. What is even more frightening is that investment is shrinking, consumption is sluggish, and industrial pformation and economic recovery are hopeless.

Did panic bring economic crisis or panic caused by economic crisis? Is this a problem of laying eggs or laying hens?

Paul Krugman was the first scholar to predict the economic crisis in East Asia in 1997. He became the master of Langya in American economics.

In the book "regression of the economics of depression", he thought, "no matter how panic happens, once it appears, there will be self correction mechanism immediately, because panic itself can prove its rationality for panic."

In the analysis, Paul put forward two questions, one is the mechanism of crisis, how did it happen? Two, why is the government not, or can not prevent, disaster?

These two questions can also be put forward to observe the stock market crash in China since June.

The mechanism and cause of the occurrence is a particularly complicated subject. At least I have seen ten analytical reports, some of which are as long as 12 thousands words, but I am afraid they are different from each other.

As for the second question, we can use the facts to make an exact answer.

After the stock market crash, some people lament, "no more illusions, then look at the 2000 point directly, and prepare for the impact of the financial crisis."

It is also predicted that China's economy will enter a long-term recession.

But today, the fact is that the stock market seems to have stabilized, and the fundamentals of China's macro-economy have not been completely broken, such as haze like market panic is being dispersed.

How did this scene happen that many people expected?

Or return to the factual level.

From the middle of June to the end of November, the temples used a series of thunderbolt measures to resolve the crisis. What we saw was the rectification of surgical operation.

First operation: judicial intervention.

Ministry of public security enters

The definition of "malicious short selling" and the restriction of abnormal pactions are typical "wartime tactics", which may not be reasonable in legal sense, but also have sequelae in business ethics, but quickly contain the acute decay.

The second operation is to stop the off-site allocation of funds.

One of the biggest causes of the stock crash was the negligent and inaccurate judgement of the size of the allocation of funds by the SFC. Yao Gang and Zhang Yu Jun took the blame. They played a hemostatic role in the decisive suspension of the off-site allocation and penalties for the relevant companies.

The third step is to clean up the inside and outside producers.

Purging the "national traitor", captured more than 10 executives of CITIC Securities, and established rules for future concerted action.

In a dramatic way, Xu Xiang was publicly arrested to deter a large number of "river robbers".

At the same time, many officials of the SFC were placed on file for investigation.

The fourth trick of surgery is to stabilize foreign currency.

In August, the yuan depreciated sharply, and the central bank used foreign exchange reserves to support a stable exchange rate. The SDR was expected to intensify, forcing the Federal Reserve to postpone raising interest rates, and win a small and important defensive battle against the stability of the army.

The fifth trick is to cut interest rates internally.

The speed of RMB issuance increased by 13% compared with the same period last year. Since June, the rate of interest reduction has been cut for three times in a row to create a relatively loose monetary environment.

Sixth operation: encourage the property market bubble.

Since the three quarter, local governments have stepped up the supply of land, and the prices of the first tier and second tier cities have been rising moderately, thereby creating a bubble expectation of internal depreciation, so as to stimulate people's financial and investment enthusiasm.

The seventh operation is to relax investment behavior.

In October, the relevant departments announced the resumption of IPO, abolished the requirement of prohibiting inter industry competition, abolished the prohibition of related pactions, and abolished the requirements for fund-raising purposes, creating a new operational space for the new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the future.

The eighth operation: release the reform signal.

Taking the new three boards as experimental plots, accelerating the pace of listing and relaxing the threshold of financing, we have released many good news such as hierarchical management and pfer board system.

At the same time, it announced the promotion of registration system and accelerated preparations for the opening of the strategic emerging board in Shanghai, and encouraged the return of overseas Chinese funded companies to the public market.

The "eight rescue measures" did not change the abnormal characteristics of China's capital market, and fundamental reforms still needed thorough medical treatment.

They are also hard to say that there are premeditated package plans. Basically, they are recruited and disassembled.

However, these tricks are also linked together and become a textbook Chinese rescue market. It proves once again that we are an atypical market economy country, and that the crisis is still one of the most important driving forces for reform.

When we walk on the road, we can always see countless scaffolding. When we walk into the cafe on the street, we can always find young people who argue and plot for entrepreneurship. We hold the "pformation lesson", or we can always call up thousands of entrepreneurs who want to change. We have a good product, and we always find consumers who are willing to try and pay.

All concerns

It is clear to everyone that in the next four or five years, China's real economy will undergo a deflationary industrial pformation. The mismatch between supply and demand must be solved. The elimination of backward production capacity is inevitable. In such a big environment, capital mobilization and asset securitization and bubbles must be maintained. The stock market crash in June seems to be a disaster today. In the future, it may be a necessary process to be forced to adjust.

"The problem is in the temple, but the answer is in the rivers and lakes."

The phrase "Lord of the Langya Pavilion" really makes sense.

The problem of the temple is the system, and the answer is confidence.

In the early July, I thought the "black swan" did not appear at the beginning of July, and the basic plate of the industrial economy and the collective confidence of the entrepreneurs were not lost, and the Chinese economy was still in a long and tortuous but sustainable growth path.

Now it seems that this judgement should be accurate.

If the fundamentals of the industrial economy really fail, the surgical operations of the temple will be fierce again. There will be more tools in the "policy treasure box". I'm afraid the market will not be able to panic. In the words of Paul's cabinet, "the bad news of a country is all bad news. When an economy lacks the resistance to self fame, panic comes."

The fundamental reason for the disappearance of panic in June is that the basic vitality of the economy still exists.