The Decline Of The Labor Dividend Will Weaken The Role Of China'S Manufacturing Center.

China's labor force is shrinking. Western clothing brands such as Levi's are considering leaving.

30 years ago, Strauss and Co began producing Levi's brand in China.

It is eager to make the most of the seemingly endless labor force willing to sew clothes for an hour and tens of cents.

Now, the source of labor is drying up.

The Wall Street journal website reported on November 23rd that labor shortages in the next few decades will force Strauss and Co and dozens of other Western brands to pform their Chinese businesses or pack up their things.

These changes mark a new chapter in globalization, that is, automation is the key to the market, and the life of workers and consumers around the world will be disrupted again.

Reported that the clues of change have been clearly visible.

A family in Zhongshan

In the factory, lasers replaced dozens of workers who used sandpaper to polish Levi's blue jeans, which made the jeans an old appearance that American consumers thought fashionable.

The automatic sewing machine reduces the number of female workers who sew the arc design patterns to the back pocket.

Digital printers make complex patterns on jeans, and in the past workers needed screens.

Luo Zhengliang, CEO of Levi's jeans, one of China's main suppliers, Jingyuan group, said: "labor is becoming more and more expensive, and technology is becoming cheaper and cheaper."

The report said that although China's economic downturn has given

Some breathing, but the blue jeans factory of Jingyuan group still pays 20% higher than the market price.

The factory also organizes cooking classes and singing competitions to keep employees happy.

Last month, China announced that it would abolish the policy of limiting the number of couples who only had one child for decades.

But economists say this is unlikely to have much impact on China's imminent population problem, because only a few Chinese people want more than one child - and the new baby will enter the job market at least 16 more years.

Worried about the outflow of manufacturers in China, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China, called for an industrial robot revolution in China last year.

China has become the largest automation market in the world.

According to the report, looking forward to 2050, the future of the global consumers seems mixed.

China's low-cost production helped the US, Europe and the country curb inflation.

It is not known whether automation can effectively reduce the cost of China's migrant workers.

But consumers should expect more choices, faster delivery, and less harm to the environment in the future.

Some technicians even believe that by 2050, 3-D printing technology and other inventions will have a huge impact.

At that time, printers could spray clothing, food, electronic products and other online ordering products from almost endless choices, and the number of workers involved in the production was much less.

Li Guoquan, chief executive officer of Hongkong allied Garment Group, said: "in 2050, you may have a 3-D printer at home, producing all the fabrics you want.

This will make us obsolete. "

1 of the 6 shirts sold in the United States - from Banana Republic to Booker Brothers - are made by the company.

The end of China's extremely cheap labor force is promoting technological progress.

This will make China no longer the center of global manufacturing.

Consumers' changing tastes are also brought about by technological change, which also weakens China's role.

It is reported that consumers need more and more customized products, whether they are compatible with individual genes or personal beer.

This makes a distance from the market more and more a disadvantage, especially ordering huge quantities of goods from China, and waiting for a month to ship by ship.

Factories are likely to become smaller and more dispersed, so that they can be more close to customers, no matter where they live.

Gary Hofbauer, a trade expert at the Pedersen Institute for international economics, said: "compared to labor costs, logistics, taxation and marketing may become more expensive.

All these will reduce the attractiveness of China. "

The Strauss and Co's choice can be China, the report said.

Provide a window for challenges and opportunities.

The 162 year old company was originally made in the United States. Until 1960s, its jeans became a symbol of the western United States and sought after by teenagers all over the world.

The Strauss and Co started its overseas production in Hongkong for the first time in 1966.

Over the next few decades, as low-cost countries scramble for foreign investment, it expands the scale of production in Mexico, Europe and Asia.

In the early 1980s, demand for jeans decreased, and the headquarters in San Francisco fired 1/3 of the total workforce worldwide and actively moved overseas to reduce costs.

In 1986, Strauss and Co began to pfer production lines to China.

Reported that China's rise to become the world's second largest economy depends on the large increase in China's working age population, from 1980 to 2015 increased by 380 million.

Hundreds of millions of Chinese agricultural population go to the manufacturing posts of cities, which is a step forward for migrant workers, even though international standards have low remuneration.

From 1980 to 2007, China's external pport volume increased by about 6700%. China also overtook the US as the world's largest exporter in 2007.

When they discovered China, manufacturers that automate the cost reduction in European and American factories stopped.

David, executive vice president of Strauss and Co, said: "machines can not compete with them."

By 2002, China's labor cost was only 60 cents per hour.

China's working age population has recently reached its peak, the report said.

Its so-called demographic dividend has begun to become a drag on population.

The United Nations estimates that by 2050, the working age population will be reduced by 212 million - almost equal to the total population of Brazil, the world's fifth largest population.

Over the past 10 years, wages and benefits have been rising at a rate of two digits, with workers demanding higher wages, the report said.

Although the growth rate of wages may ease this year due to the economic downturn, pressure will increase over the next few decades as the number of workers drops sharply.