Robots Instead Of Artificial New Production Mode Will Lead To The Collapse Of Manufacturing Industry?

A book entitled "robot age" has recently won the McKinsey "best business book" award.

Uneasy is the subtitle of the book, the British version is "the threat of large-scale unemployment", the American version is "an unemployed future".

The main point of the book is that

In the field of professional services, more and more people are worried that automation will have a negative impact on employment.

This is not a new assertion. From renowned scientist Hocking and Microsoft Corp founder Bill Gate to Elon Mask, founder of Tesla and SpaceX space exploration technology company, they have all mentioned that intelligent robots will replace or even rule human beings.

Some Hollywood films and videos such as star wars even talked about robot attacks on humans.

In reality, robots are far less intelligent.

At present, robots are still running under the procedures set by humans, and what they can do is relatively simple.

However, the industry generally believes that with the continuous development of information technology and the improvement of computing performance, robots will be able to undertake more work to help people expand their capabilities.

Because of this, robots will take the place of some people's daily work, which has aroused Martin Ford's concern.

The collapse of manufacturing industry and the dilution of demographic dividend are the main reasons for entrepreneurs to replace robots with new modes of production.

It is impressive that Terry Gou, chairman of Hon Hai, proposed the "million robot program" in 2011.

He had envisaged 1 million robots on Foxconn production line in 2014.

Although there is still a gap in the final goal, it has become a reality for robots to replace artificial labor in some parts of the manufacturing industry.

With the corresponding consumer market, service robots, especially the single function devices related to smart home, have gradually matured.

In this year's double eleven Shopping Festival, a sweeping robot has entered the top ten sales of household appliances, and even exceeded.

Electronic products such as mobile phones and SKYWORTH TV.

Maybe one day, human beings are not just working, but all living beings are full of robots.

However, in the development of half a century, there are fewer than 2 million robots in the world.

This is very small for the scale of any industry.

So people in the industry are also beginning to reflect on whether the development of the robot industry and the impact of the stir should cool down?

Enjoy the dividend policy in the world

After the emergence of industrial robots in 1961, the whole industrial system of the whole world began to change.

Various types of robots have been introduced into the manufacturing and manufacturing sectors of automobiles, electronics, metals and rubber.

People believe that robots are one of the greatest technological inventions of the twentieth Century.

Especially after the financial crisis in 2008, the robotics industry has grown against the trend.

Relevant data show that its global growth rate is averaging about 30%, which is even higher in China than in the 50%~60% range.

Arturo Baroncelli, chairman of the international robotics Federation, said after the survey of the global market that sales of industrial robots reached 230 thousand in 2014 and 15% in 2015, and this growth trend will remain until 2018.

The prediction for service robots will exceed 15 million in the next three years, exceeding 20 billion of sales.

Behind the high growth rate, in fact, is the keen interest of governments and enterprises in intelligent manufacturing.

Japan is in the leading position in robot production, research and development and use.

In order to solve the problem of insufficient labor and aging population, the development of robots has been paid much attention.

In 2015, the Japanese government adopted the "robot new strategy" and decided to focus on robot industry in the next 5 years.

To achieve this strategy, the Japanese government will provide support in the areas of finance, taxation, education and law.

The United States, as the first country to invent robots in the world, has long existed the problem of "emphasizing theory and applying light".

However, beginning in the late 1970s, the US government began to lift restrictions on the application of industrial robots, and then began its efforts in 80s.

The Obama administration launched the advanced manufacturing partnership program in 2011 and invested $2 billion 800 million to boost American manufacturing by developing industrial robots.

The EU invested heavily in robotics research and development in the "seventh framework plan" and "Horizon 2020" project, and launched the "SPARC" of the civil robot research and development program in 2014.

Moreover, European countries have launched corresponding strategies for robot development.

Germany, under the impetus of "industry 4", will invest more than 50% of its corresponding solutions in the next 5 years. The first official robotics strategy of the United Kingdom is "RAS (Robotics and automation system) 2020", which will be used for 257 million US dollars. The French "robot development plan" will achieve the goal of becoming the top five in the world's robotics field by 2020.

The Korean robot industry has also been developing rapidly in recent years.

In 2009, when the first five year plan for the development of the robot industry was released, the South Korean government announced second five year plans in 2014, hoping to achieve the expansion of the robot industry through the integration of technology and other industries.

China's robot industry is entering the policy honeymoon period.

Not only the senior government has realized that the robotics industry has strategic significance for the development of intelligent society, and the relevant specific policies are being worked out.

It is reported that the relevant "

The draft plan has been basically completed, and the relevant supporting policies of "made in China 2025" are also being speeded up. Relevant departments will also introduce and implement 33 special plans for each subdivision.

It has been revealed that there are more than 30 robot development zones and industrial parks in China. There are more than 100 listed companies with robot concepts. There are thousands of large and medium-sized enterprises related to robots, with 700 to 800 influential companies.

In fact, China has been the largest robot market in the world for two consecutive years, but at present, China's relatively high-end market is still monopolized by foreign enterprises.

Robots drive industrial upgrading

From the perspective of the main functions and characteristics of robots, they are constantly improving to more vertical areas.

FANUC is a Japanese company specializing in CNC systems, founded in 1956.

It is the world's largest manufacturer of professional CNC systems, occupying 70% of the world's market share.

Similar manufacturers include EPSON, Kawasaki and Kawasaki, which mostly enter the field earlier and focus on the industrial robot market.

FANUC and electric motors are two of the four giant robot companies in the world today.

On the other hand, the Japanese robot industry has extended to service robots.

In 2015, Japan's Softbank and Taiwan Hon Hai and Alibaba launched the humanoid robot Pepper, which has the ability to recognize facial expressions and dialogues, and can be used to guide and care for the elderly.

In fact, a number of Japanese companies have launched humanoid robots, ranging from tens of thousands of dollars to millions of dollars.

European industry has invested 140 billion euros a year, making its industrial robots and medical robots the leading position.

KUKA, headquartered in Switzerland, is also among the four largest companies in the world in robotics, ABB.

In the early days, ABB was engaged in the electrical equipment business, and KUKA began to engage in welding equipment business, and eventually grew into an integrated industrial automation enterprise, and grasped the key technologies of the robot body and some core components.

It can be seen that robots will merge with big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

The United States will lead a new revolution in the robotics industry by relying on major technological breakthroughs in the latter.

In recent years, the United States has begun to exert power in the field of robotics. Enterprises such as Baxter and Adept have already challenged capital to the four traditional robotics enterprises.

Unlike robots replacing artificial technology, the introduction of information technology, biotechnology and nanomaterial technology makes robots have the basis of developing human abilities.

At present, 90% of industrial robots are used for automobile manufacturing, while service robots have been favored for many years, but have not yet been improved.

However, the industry is still convinced that in some areas robots will burst new energy in the next few years.

With the improvement of technology and the sensitivity of robot operation, robots will have greater value in the field of biomedicine than automobiles. The reason is that robots can enhance economic benefits in the development of new drugs.

At the same time, autopilot and agricultural applications are also considered commercially valuable markets, and robots are urgently needed to upgrade and replace existing ones.

Alois C.Knoll, a professor at Technical University of Munich in Germany, said that the ability to acquire information and share computing and processing at any time and anywhere, and the development of deep learning and artificial intelligence technology have enabled some functions such as evading obstacles to be realized. The development of these three aspects has brought about qualitative changes to robots.

Lynne Parker, a professor at University of Tennessee, has similar views.

In her view, the Internet of things provides a new direction for the development of robots.

It's too early to replace man.

However, behind the government's attention and the prospect of the industry, the problems encountered by the robot industry can not be ignored.

Although the robot industry is in a period of rapid development, the number of robots in the world is less than 1/10 of the annual output of China's auto industry. The average robot density is only 0.62%, which means that 99.38% of the work is done by people.

A few days ago, Guangdong officially announced that it would promote the pformation of 1950 Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size from 2015 to 2017, and select leading enterprises to carry out "intelligent plant cultivation and construction pilot", and prepare to invest 943 billion yuan in industrial technology pformation in 3 years.

But the fact is that robots are expensive and difficult to spread in large areas.

A small business owner in Dongguan once told the media that production is still more dependent on labor than on automation, but that the cost is too high.

According to media reports, the price of a single robot in the PRD is below 200 thousand yuan, and the price of a robot system is 200-300 yuan.

At the same time, the local government has also realized that machine replacement does not involve all enterprises and all processes. There are many links that can not be done by machines, and workers are still required to operate.

In some production processes, workers only need about 10 minutes to familiarize themselves with the assembly process, while robots need professional engineers to re write programs and debug, which is more time consuming.

The function and performance of robot products can not meet the rigid demand of mass production in manufacturing industry.

Taking industrial robots as an example, there is not only a lack of perception system, but also a lack of flexible operating system in some links.

In the production process, the robot can complete the prescribed action, but it is difficult for robots to operate flexibly in the typical work.

It has been reported by some media that a mouse manufacturer in the Pearl River Delta has invested about about 2000000 yuan, and purchased 75 robots for production, but all of them broke down in less than a month.

The reason is that these robots were originally used for automobile manufacturing, while for the production of mice, the exact frequency of these robots was much higher than that of welding automobiles.

In addition, the safety of robots is also a factor affecting the development of this industry.

Some large robots are difficult to cooperate with people. They need to be isolated from people in operation and even need to be protected by cage. This also leads to the fact that some industries can not introduce robots at present.