In 2015, China'S Foreign Trade Import And Export Double Downward Trend Is A Foregone Conclusion.

In November, China's foreign trade and imports declined, imports and exports dropped by 4.5%, exports dropped by 3.7%, and imports dropped by 5.6%.

We saw a relatively stable decline in exports during the month and a sharp decrease in imports. This is the smallest monthly decline this month.

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As we can see, the import and export "big month" is the end of November and December at the end of each year, but the scale of import and export in December last year is the highest since record.

Preliminary estimates show that in 2015, the total value of China's foreign trade and imports will drop by about 7.5%, and exports will drop by about 2.5%, and imports will drop by about 14%.

It seems that the trend of China's foreign trade import and export double down in 2015 is basically a foregone conclusion, which will be the second decline in import and export since China's foreign trade import and export record. The first double drop occurred in 2009 after the outbreak of the global financial crisis.

Looking back at the trend of China's exports in 2015, there are still signs of growth in the first half of the year. However, since the second half of the year, the monthly decline has led to the overall stall in the whole year.

The lack of global economic recovery and the downturn in international and domestic demand both inhibit the export of China and the world, and pressure on commodity prices, thus making global trade languish.

WTO's latest data show that global exports fell by 11.1% over the first 9 months of 2015, of which the US dropped by 6%, the EU dropped by 13.5%, and Japan dropped by 9.2%, while China's exports fell by only 1.9% during the same period.

In the new era of foreign trade, new changes in China's import and export will make 2015 a new turning point in the development of China's foreign trade.

One of the changes: the scale of bilateral trade with major trading partners has narrowed significantly, and the number of trading partners in Europe, America, Japan and Korea has changed.

In recent years, the EU and the United States have been occupying the position of China's top two trading partners, but this year, with the trend of economic recovery in Europe and the United States, the trend of trade between China and Europe and the United States also shows a downward trend.

In the first 11 months of this year, although the EU is still China's largest trading partner, the gap between bilateral trade and the size of the US trade scale, which is second, has shrunk to 17 billion yuan. The gap between the two sides last year was as high as about 370000000000 yuan.

If the scale of bilateral trade between China and the EU and the United States is calculated in January of October this year, the United States will overtake the EU as China's largest trading partner in 2015.

In addition to Europe and the United States, there is also a group of trading partners who may have the chance to change positions, namely, the fifth largest trading partners, Japan and the sixth largest trading partner, South Korea.

Japan has been in the position of China's largest trading partner for a long time after the reform and opening up, and then gradually dropped to fifth place.

But since 2012, bilateral trade has shrunk for 3 consecutive years, while the volume of trade between China and South Korea has steadily increased over the same period.

In the first 11 months of this year, the trade gap between the two countries was only 18 billion 700 million yuan, and the difference was about 137000000000 yuan last year.

According to this estimate, Japan and South Korea are also likely to complete the replacement of seats in 2015.

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Two of the changes: the structure optimization of import and export commodities, the differentiation of labor intensive products, and the increase of imports of high-tech products and consumer goods.

Over the past few years, the Chinese government has been committed to fostering new advantages in foreign trade competition and strives to realize the shift from "big to big" to "superior and superior". The change in China's major import and export commodities this year also confirms this change.

2015 can be said to be the first year of the differentiation of China's labor-intensive products export.

In the first 11 months,

The export value of clothing, shoes and other products with low technical content, low technical requirements for supporting facilities and workers, and greater cost constraint decreased by 1.8%, 7% and 4.8% respectively, while exports of toys, bags, furniture and plastic products with high technical content and high matching requirements continued to grow. The export value increased by 11.1%, 4.6%, 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. In 2014, the export value of textiles, clothing and shoes in China was also positive.

The obvious differentiation of labor intensive products shows that the traditional competitive advantage is being weakened.

On the import side, the import and export of high-tech products and daily consumer goods that boost economic pformation and upgrading have been in an upward trend.

In the first 11 months, the import of high and new technology products in China increased by 0.4% year on year, of which the import of electronic technology products increased by 4%. In the same period, the import of fresh dried fruits and nuts in China increased by 22.7%, liquor increased by 27.4%, medical products increased by 7.3%, beauty cosmetics and skin care products increased by 39.7%, which showed that in recent years China's national income was steadily improved, the living standards of the common people were constantly improved, and the rapid development of the Internet, the establishment of the free trade area and the pilot of the cross-border business Bonded import were improved, which made the consumption habits of the Chinese people slowly changing.

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Three of the changes: the development of trade entities is changing, the export momentum of private enterprises is strong, and foreign capital and state-owned enterprises are both weak.

Private enterprises, once the "primary school" of Chinese foreign trade, have done well this year, especially in the export section.

In the first 11 months, the import and export volume of private enterprises in China decreased by 1.8%, which was better than that of state-owned enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises, accounting for 36.7% of the total value, 2.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and 2.2% of its export growth.

The outstanding achievements of private enterprises not only benefit from the decentralization and decentralization of governments at all levels, but also greatly reduce the administrative costs of enterprises, and more importantly, enterprises are constantly adjusting their business strategies under the trend of innovation, adapting to market demands and realizing the inevitable result of accelerating pformation.

At the same time, the import and export of foreign investment enterprises of big brother of China's foreign trade decreased by 6.4%, accounting for 46.7% of the total value, and the status of half of the country was no longer. Its exports decreased by 5.4%, which was the worst performance of the same period, and did not exclude the export atrophy caused by some foreign capital pfer to less expensive regions such as Southeast Asia.

State owned enterprises, as the national team of China's foreign trade, can only be said to be mediocre. The export of state-owned enterprises has dropped by 11.1%, mainly because the products can not meet the market demand, which is state-owned.

The slow pace of innovation is reflected in the slow down of commodity prices, and the sharp decline in the price of commodity markets has led to a significant decline in the value of imports of state-owned enterprises, which mainly imports commodities, to 17%.

2015 will soon be over. This year is a new starting point for the development of China's foreign trade and a new turning point in the future development of China's foreign trade.

We can expect that the layout of China's foreign trade will be more perfect in the future, the development mode will be optimized constantly, the traditional advantages will continue to be maintained, and the new advantages of foreign trade competition will be continuously nurtured.

As a matter of fact, today's China, with its rising international status and significant influence, is already the second largest economy in the world and the largest cargo trading nation.

In the future, if China's foreign trade is to be optimized and upgraded and the pformation from a large foreign trade country to a powerful trade country, it is imperative to adhere to the open concept and develop a higher level open economy.

Only in this way can China's foreign trade open up a new prospect. China's opening to the outside world can usher in new opportunities. China can take on a new look in the development of the global economy.