China's Foreign Trade Accumulates New Energy, Seeks Opportunities, And Watches Spring.

The weakness of China's imports is mainly attributable to the continued decline in commodity prices.

Imports of iron ore, crude oil, grain, refined oil and other major commodities increased, and imports of coal and steel decreased.

For commodity prices, the US dollar strong cycle may end. Commodities will rebound with currency factors and import prices will rebound. This will play an important role in alleviating PPI's long-term negative growth and pushing up CPI.

China's foreign trade data in November showed poor performance, exports were "five consecutive down", and the first "Thirteen consecutive falls" in the history of imports.

As the new year is approaching, China's foreign trade is also looking for new opportunities in the cold winter.

Experts pointed out that at present, the lack of effective global demand and the adjustment of domestic economic structure have led to a decline in foreign trade under the dual factors at home and abroad, but at the same time, foreign trade enterprises are forced to accelerate pformation and upgrading, reshape the industrial structure, promote the quality and efficiency of the whole industry, and foster a new trade competitive advantage as soon as possible.

The relevant reports issued by the Ministry of Commerce predict that in 2016, the policy environment of China's foreign trade development will be further optimized, and the new advantages and new kinetic energy of foreign trade competition will also be continuously accumulated.

In the global economic downturn and weak demand, China's foreign trade is also hard to get away with, in November.

Performance is lower than expected, and import and export growth continues to be negative.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of customs, the total value of China's imports and exports decreased by 7.8% in the first 11 months of 2015, and the target of achieving 6% of the total foreign trade growth in the whole year was hard to come by.

Specifically, exports fell 6.8% in November, down 5 consecutive months, down 5% from expected, and imports fell 8.7% compared to the same period last year, significantly better than the expected two digit decline, falling for 13 consecutive months, for the first time since the entry of foreign trade data, and a trade surplus of 54 billion 100 million US dollars.

According to Deng Haiqing, chief economist of Kyushu securities, on the whole, although both imports and exports were negative year-on-year, they were all better than in October.

From the perspective of trade type, general trade has picked up a lot better than processing trade.

According to the General Administration of customs, China's export guide index for November was 32, down 0.8 from October, indicating that China's export pressure is still higher next year.

According to the Ministry of Commerce report, considering the overall consideration, the volume of China's exports in 2015 is expected to be basically the same as that of the previous year, and the import volume will decrease considerably, and the total import and export will be reduced.

In the recent summary of the economic situation in the first three quarters of 2015 and the analysis report on China's import and export trade situation, we can see that China's foreign trade is facing unprecedented difficulties under the influence of global economic recovery and insufficient domestic and foreign demand. The negative growth situation of import and export trade is difficult to reverse all year round, and the annual decline is expected to be 7.2%.

"In the case of the general fall of oil and other commodity prices, China's imports in November improved significantly, indicating that the effectiveness of the official series of policies for stabilizing economic growth is emerging, and the driving effect of innovation on China's economic development is increasingly prominent."

Chen Yuyan, a macroeconomic analyst, pointed out that although the growth rate of China's exports declined this year, it accounted for a steady increase in global market share.

Exports are better than major economies and other developing countries. The quality and efficiency of imports have greatly improved, and the trend of foreign trade structural adjustment has been improving. The new kinetic energy of foreign trade development is accumulating.

Indeed, under the overall downward trend of imports and exports, there are still some local growth highlights.

China's exports to the US and ASEAN have maintained growth this year.

In the first 11 months, the EU is China's largest trading partner, China EU trade accounts for 14.3% of China's total foreign trade, the United States is the second largest trading partner of China, Sino US trade accounts for 14.2% of China's total foreign trade, ASEAN is the third largest trading partner of China, trade with ASEAN accounts for 11.8% of China's total foreign trade, Japan is the fifth largest trading partner of China, and Sino Japanese trade accounts for 7.1% of China's total foreign trade.

It is worth noting that private enterprises are becoming the main force of import and export.

In the first 11 months, the import and export of private enterprises accounted for 36.7% of China's total foreign trade, up 2.2 percentage points from the same period last year, and the import and export of state-owned enterprises accounted for 16.5% of China's total foreign trade.

With the gradual implementation of policies to support steady growth in foreign trade, and the reform measures such as decentralization and decentralization, the business environment of private enterprises has been further improved, and vitality has been continuously released.

However, imports are not optimistic.

Private enterprises imported $347 billion 780 million, down 24.9% from the same period last year, accounting for 25.4% of the total imports, down 3 percentage points from the same period last year.

Foreign invested enterprises imported 683 billion 360 million US dollars, down 8.8%, accounting for 49.9%, still accounting for half of China's imports.

In addition, the export of Chinese equipment with high technological content has also increased.

According to statistics, in the first 11 months, the export of Chinese mechanical and electrical products increased by 1%, accounting for 57.6% of the total export value.

Imports and exports of iron ore, crude oil, grain, refined oil and other major commodities increased, and imports of coal and steel decreased.

Market participants believe that the weakness of China's imports is mainly attributable to the continued decline in commodity prices.

Imports of iron ore, crude oil, grain, refined oil and other major commodities increased, and imports of coal and steel decreased.

Deng Haiqing believes that for commodity prices, the US dollar strong cycle may end. Commodities will rebound with currency factors and import prices will rebound. This will play an important role in alleviating PPI's long-term negative growth and pushing up CPI.

The continued downturn of foreign trade data seems to announce that China's foreign trade will continue for some time.

China's foreign trade situation report (autumn 2015) released recently by the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the decline in exports was mainly due to the joint effect of internal and external causes.

From the external environment, the recovery of the world economy is slowing down, and the weak demand in the international market has a great impact on China's exports.

From the perspective of internal factors, the overall cost of foreign trade remains high, and traditional competitive advantages continue to weaken.

Coupled with the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, the export was further suppressed.

On the basis of tracking and analyzing 70 key industries, 6000 enterprises and 80 key import commodities, the Ministry of Commerce recently went to Guangdong, Zhejiang and other key provinces and cities for inspection and supervision.

At present, China's foreign trade faces 4 major difficulties.

First, the international market demand remains depressed. The world trade has been slower than the world economic growth for 3 consecutive years. In the first 9 months of this year, the world's largest decline in 30 years (except 2009), 70 of the world's major economies imported all negative growth.

Two, the appreciation of the renminbi restricts exports. From January 2014 to October 2015, the effective exchange rate of RMB rose by 9.3%, and the yuan appreciated 15.1%, 8.8%, 3.5%, 21.3% and 91.8% respectively against the euro, yen, pound, Australian dollar and rouble.

Three, the cost of land, logistics, labor and other factors continues to rise. This year, 21 regions have raised the minimum wage standard, with an average increase of 13.3%.

It is estimated that in recent years, industries have shifted outwards to reduce China's exports by about 95 billion US dollars.

The four is the rise of trade protectionism. From January to October, I encountered 65 trade relief surveys launched by 21 countries (regions), involving 5 billion 830 million dollars.

In fact, the poor foreign trade situation is not unique to China, but rather global.

Since 2015, the International Monetary Fund has lowered the world economic growth rate for the 4 time, the latest forecast value is only 3.1%, the lowest since 2009.

The world trade organization also lowered its 2015 Global trade growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%.

The Holland Bureau of economic policy predicts that this year will be the worst year of Global trade since 2009.

In the first three quarters of this year, the global economy showed a "slow motion": the hard recovery of the world's developed economies, the pressure of the emerging market economy, and the constant adjustment of China's economy in the throes of growth.

Global trade growth has continued to slump amid the decline in commodity prices and the sluggish growth in global manufacturing.

"With the rising cost of labor, land, environment and other factors, and the two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, the export competitive advantage is relatively weakened.

From the perspective of major trading partners, the European economy has encountered new problems such as refugees, terrorist attacks and so on. The recovery is hard to say. Although the US economy has rebounded significantly, the lifting effect of China's exports is weakening. The continued depreciation of the emerging economies has weakened the stimulating effect of RMB depreciation on exports.

Therefore, China's export trade is under sustained pressure. "

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and economic cooperation, pointed out that the conclusion of the p Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) is bound to bring about a trade diversion effect. China's tariff concessions and free trade dividends may be diluted, and the external trade situation is more severe.

Considering that the world economic weakness is difficult to change in the short term, China's foreign trade materials are still difficult in early 2016.

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As of November, the new export orders index of China's official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been below the ups and downs for 14 consecutive months, and the downward trend is still continuing, indicating weak external demand.

In November, the leading index of China's foreign trade was 32, down 0.8 from October.

The General Administration of Customs said this indicates that China's export pressure is still relatively large in early 2016.

Despite the signs of a rebound in the external situation since the fourth quarter of the year, the US and European economies have issued a positive signal, but in the short term it is difficult to pmit to our exports.

Chen Yuyan further pointed out that under the background of strong US dollar, crude oil production restriction agreement and global commodity prices continued to decline, the improvement of import growth is not sustainable.

China's imports will continue to face severe challenges from the end of this year to the beginning of next year.

However, China's foreign trade is not in the same place waiting for the "cold winter" in the past, but trying to find new opportunities.

The summary of the economic situation in the first three quarters of 2015 and the analysis report of China's import and export trade situation indicated that the policy boosted the "going out" of China's equipment, the speed of regional cooperation and the continuous improvement of the pricing mechanism of the RMB exchange rate, and the vigorous development of new business models, such as cross-border e-commerce, market purchase and purchase trade, and comprehensive foreign trade service enterprises, will provide new impetus and new opportunities for the growth of foreign trade.

Since May this year, the State Council has basically promulgated policies or documents on stabilizing foreign trade every month, from regulating import and export links to cross-border e-commerce, reducing burdens on enterprises.

In particular, in the middle of this year, the State Council deployed to promote the healthy and rapid development of cross-border e-commerce, and put forward the idea of "Internet plus foreign trade" to achieve better and better progress, which is conducive to expanding consumption, promoting the development of an open economy and upgrading new economic growth points.

Chen Yuyan also believes that the pformation from "made in China" to "created in China" is becoming more and more urgent.

Cross border e-commerce is becoming an important starting point in the pformation and upgrading of foreign trade.

On the one hand, with the help of the Internet, the export cost of enterprises is indeed lower.

Taking logistics cost as an example, a number of container goods are pported abroad by shipping, including container trailers, customs declaration, warehousing, shipping and other links. These costs occupy 30% or even more of the total cost of foreign trade enterprises.

On the other hand, foreign trade enterprises are still actively using the Internet to expand their overseas business channels.

For China made in the critical period of pformation and upgrading, with the help of professional cross-border e-commerce platform and logistics system all over the world, Chinese products are reaching every corner of the globe.

Take the countries along the "one belt and one road" as an example, with the help of "

With the opportunities brought by the strategy, many enterprises have intensified the market development of the countries along the Internet with the help of Internet technology, and the export of many products in the countries along the border has increased significantly.

In the view of Chen Zhenchong, director of the science and technology division of the General Administration of customs, cross border electricity providers, as a new form of trade, have become an important force to boost China's foreign trade growth. Cross-border electricity providers are conducive to stimulating domestic consumption, fair competition, promoting development and strengthening import tax administration.

Customs are also actively exploring policies and measures to adapt to the development of cross-border e-commerce, further improving the efficiency of customs clearance, reducing the cost of customs clearance, and enhancing the international competitiveness of cross-border e-commerce.

In addition, foreign trade growth needs to find new support.

Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JP Morgan, said frankly: "at present, the low-end manufacturing industry has moved out, and China is developing new competitiveness in the middle end manufacturing, electronic products, construction machinery and other industries. How to move from the middle to the high-end is the key."

In response to this, the Ministry of industry and information recently issued the plan of action of the Ministry of industry and information on implementing the guidance of the State Council on actively promoting the "Internet plus" action. (2015-2018 years), the proposal put forward that the integration of the Internet and manufacturing industry is further deepened, and the level of manufacturing digitalization, networking and intellectualization has improved significantly. By 2018, the localization rate of high-end intelligent equipment has been significantly improved, and a number of intelligent factories in key industries have been built.

You know, behind the Internet technology, it is China.

Difficult pformation process.

Financial crisis, artificial rise, overcapacity and many other difficulties make it difficult for many foreign trade enterprises to adapt.

Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade and import and export have been slowing down. Some foreign trade enterprises also reflect that they are still facing greater uncertainty.

But foreign trade enterprises, which have long been accustomed to climbing and beating, quickly adapted to the new challenges. With the gradual popularization and application of Internet technology, brand-new ideas and technologies, and super personalized products emerge in endlessly.

Under the guidance of Internet thinking, the whole industry chain of R & D, design, production and sales is changing. The factories, suppliers and manufacturers of traditional foreign trade have found new profit models. Some have begun to collect designs online, others have tried to build platforms overseas, others have tried to integrate upstream and downstream supply chains.

"Made in China" is changing magnificently toward "China's wisdom".

It is worth noting that financial support for foreign trade is also increasing, so that export credit insurance agencies can further optimize their services.

In 2015, China Export and Credit Insurance Corp's short-term insurance coverage is expected to exceed US $350 billion. Under the premise of controllable risk, the export financing of large sets of equipment should be guaranteed.

Many positive factors will also play a role in the future development of foreign trade.

China's foreign trade situation report (autumn 2015) pointed out that in the face of the complex situation of foreign trade development, the Chinese government will continue to expand opening to the outside world, encourage the development of foreign trade, strive to solve the deep-seated contradictions restricting the development of foreign trade, focus on structural adjustment and foster new advantages in foreign trade competition, further improve the level of trade facilitation, accelerate the development of new business models of foreign trade, continue to strengthen imports, deepen pragmatic cooperation with economic and trade partners, and create more favorable conditions for foreign trade enterprises to enhance confidence and stabilize international market share.

Under the background that traditional advantages are gradually disappearing and new advantages have not yet been brought into full play, China's foreign trade must abide by the cold winter and try hard to find new opportunities to usher in the spring.