What Is The Impact Of "Supply Side Reform" On The Textile And Garment Industry?

After the birth of the "supply side reform", you don't know what it is. For the high frequency words that leaders and media focus on, do you find it difficult to understand?

You must wonder: what is the supply side? Why?

What will be the impact of the clothing industry? What should we do?

This afternoon, sponsored by the China Textile Industry Federation, the China Textile Industry Federation press center, Ou Ruikang group and Beijing Guanghua Textile Group Co., Ltd.

The Eleventh Annual Conference of China spinning round table forum, "textile supply side reform and adjustment"

Asian Hotel is scheduled to be held.

Wang Tiankai, former president of the China Federation of textile industry, Du Yuzhou, vice president and Secretary General Gao Yong, Vice Chairman Sun Shui TSE, deputy party secretary Chen Weikang, Secretary of the Discipline Inspection Committee Wang Jiuxin, assistant president Chen Dapeng, director of textile industry division of the Ministry of consumer goods industry, Cao Xuejun and other leaders attended the forum.

Member of the CPPCC National Committee, former director of the Finance Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, Jia Kang, director of the China Institute of supply economics, Pan Jiancheng, vice president of the China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center, Yang Haitao, general manager of credit and Investment Management Department of ICBC, Rihad, President of Heng Yuan Xiang Group Co., Ltd., Rihad, vice president of Orion's chemical fiber section, Shi Daosi Shi Daosi, CEO, Shi Daosi, President of China textile industry group, chairman of Beijing Textile Holding Group Co., Ltd., chairman of Beijing Guanghua Textile Group Co., Ltd., general manager, Jiangsu Shuyang County standing committee, deputy director of the Development Zone Management Committee, Wei Wei, director of Investment Promotion Bureau of the Development Zone, and other guests also attending the CEO.

The forum is chaired by Sun Huaibin, Deputy Secretary General of the China Textile Industry Federation, press spokesman and director of the news center.

Sun Huaibin said at the forum that the deployment of the "supply side" reform by the state indicated that in the 2016 and future period, while moderately expanding the total demand, we should focus on strengthening the "supply side" adjustment so as to promote the healthy development of China's national economy.

To promote this work, the central economic work conference has made policy and task deployment, among which there are five policy requirements and five major tasks.

In order to implement the spirit of the central economic work conference, the textile industry is also exploring how to promote structural reform and adjustment of the industry itself. On the one hand, we need to conscientiously understand the theory and policy measures to digest the "supply side" reform. At the same time, combined with the actual needs of the industry, we should clarify the task and direction of our "supply side" reform.

These two aspects can not be accomplished overnight, so we should put this topic in the "13th Five-Year" overall situation.

Therefore, the theme of this year's meeting will be fixed on the "supply side" reform and adjustment of "13th Five-Year" textile industry.

Perspectives:

"The demand side is always the driving force, and the real innovation is on the supply side."

Jia Kang, member of the CPPCC National Committee and former director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance and President of the new supply Economics Research Institute of China, said that at present, the structural reform of supply side has been deployed as a whole, which concerns how we can lead the new normal to achieve the strategic goal of modernization.

He said that today, the "new normal" of its "new" has become clear in the economic downturn, and its "normal" has not yet been achieved. It needs to complete the bottom line. After stabilizing, docking a medium and high speed growth platform with the quality of growth as long as possible, and to deal with the related problems related to the pformation and optimization of the power mechanism in the new stage and the full release of the potential and vitality of the micro economic entities, it is necessary to focus on the supply side of the entire economic system, and correctly grasp the train of thought and main points for improving its environment and mechanism.

Therefore, in the face of "13th Five-Year", we need to "release new demand, create new supply", and drive innovation and upgrading.

"Today's China, the economic downturn and huge contradictions continue to highlight, we used the usual demand stimulation method also no use, or even more harmful.

The key and essence of the current problems in China's economy is structure. The way to solve the problem is also the structure. The demand side is always the total quantity, and the supply side can solve structural problems in a targeted way.

Pan Jiancheng, director of the China Economic Monitoring Center, said that the core of the supply side is to increase total factor productivity, while improving total factor productivity. The core of this is to enhance innovation capability, and the enhancement of real innovation capability must be cut short of short-term actions.

Therefore, we must be truly original, we must be able to endure loneliness, adhere to the past.

"At present, ICBC's support for the textile industry is first reflected in the industry policy. ICBC has industry policies for all industries, and there are different credit policies in every industry. We have encouraged and supported the textile industry these years."

Yang Haitao, deputy general manager of credit and investment management department, head office of ICBC, pointed out that by the end of 2015, ICBC had 6 thousand loan customers in the textile industry, and the loan amount of the whole industry in ICBC has exceeded one hundred and ten billion, and that one hundred and ten billion was mainly issued after 2011.

Since 2011, the industrial and commercial bank's financing in the textile industry has increased by about 50000000000, that is, in recent years, it has increased support for the textile industry.

At present, ICBC has increased the total amount of credit to the textile industry and the proportion of loans in our bank year by year. This is our support for the financing needs of the industry.

Industry voice: textile industry will gain greater initiative under the supply side reform.

Last month 1~11, the main business income of the textile industry was 637 million 100 thousand, an increase of 5%, with a total profit exceeding 330 billion, an increase of 6.8%.

Last year, 1~11 month, industry investment exceeded 10000 billion, an increase of 15.1%.

As we all know, some industries, especially the raw material industry, are almost all losing money. It is not easy for the textile industry to have 5% increment and 6.8% profit growth.

However, despite the fact that light industry and textile industry are performing fairly well from the perspective of the performance of the entire Chinese industrial economy, we can not enjoy ourselves. In fact, we are only dropping a little bit when everyone is declining.

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The two biggest problems we face now is the decline in exports, which was about $292 billion last year, down 4.88% from 2014.

In the 12th Five-Year plan, the index was $300 billion, 2014 completed 306 billion, but in 2015 it fell back.

At the same time, our domestic consumption did not show the expected performance in the 12th Five-Year plan.

At that time, when the state formulated the "12th Five-Year plan", the principle was to reduce the proportion of fixed assets investment and increase the proportion of consumption to support national economic growth.

The total retail sales of consumer goods at that time amounted to 16 trillion.

If we sum up the 12th Five-Year planning indicators, the index of total retail sales of social consumer goods is one of the few indicators that have not been completed. Now, many experts estimate that this year will probably reach 30 trillion, but if it is doubled, it must be 32 trillion.

So in the face of our market, the first is exports, and the second is domestic consumption, which is worse than we expected.

Domestic consumption of textile and clothing is actually worse than the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society.

Before 2013, when the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 17%, our textile growth was 19%.

By 2014, when the total retail sales of social consumer goods dropped to 15%, the growth rate of our textile and clothing was only 13%. Last year we only had 10%, which was two points higher than the national average in the past. Now we have become a low two point.

Whether it is the "12th Five-Year plan" of our country or the "12th Five-Year" plan of our textile industry, it is based on consumption pulling.

Now the Central Committee has put forward the reform of supply side structure, which is also analyzing why the retail sales of social consumer goods have not reached our target.

From the point of view of textile and clothing, why are its economic indicators better than other industrial products? In fact, our textile industry is in the "11th Five-Year" and "12th Five-Year" period. First, we have grasped the reform of the industrial structure, and second, we have grasped the reform of the product structure.

In the reform of industrial structure, we are focusing on industrial textiles, so during the "12th Five-Year" period, our industry accounted for more than 1/4 of fiber processing.

And the adjustment of product structure is witnessed and participated.

In other words, the textile industry in the past 10 years, especially in the past 5 years, in the supply side reform, we are ahead, so compared with other industries, we have gained more initiative.

I think China's textile industry in 2015, in the overall national economy is still in the doldrums, the textile industry is still a steady development stage, there will be a slight increase.

The first is exports, and our exports are negative for 6 consecutive months. By the month of December, a bit of a tail has turned into growth. In December, we grew by 5%, but we accumulated 4.88% in the whole year.

The reason why December can be a little bit backward may be related to the general situation, especially the change of exchange rate.

In the whole year, we are all in negative growth trend.

Over the past 5~10 years, the renminbi has declined by more than thirty percent against the euro.

The RMB yen exchange rate has dropped by more than 40, which has great impact on us.

The second is that the economic recovery in Europe and Japan is slow, so the market recovery is not as good as that in the United States.

Generally speaking, our textile industry is similar to the state's foreign trade export situation, but the difference is that in the three major markets, the US market, the European Union market and the Japanese market, we are not only in volume and price, but also in the market share.

But I think that starting from December is a bit of an end, which indicates that in the early part of 2016, our export will increase.

First, it is related to the exchange rate. Second, part of the order will accelerate the reflux in this situation.

So I think our export will increase in the first half of this year.

Another is domestic consumption, I am afraid we have dropped to 10% growth rate, and then it is difficult to fall down.

Some policies starting last year, especially some of the benefits of fixed asset investment, will gradually benefit us from manufacturing in 2016.

So I think we should not be too pessimistic in 2016. It should be a steady growth trend. Of course, it will not increase too much. It is an uphill curve.

The textile industry is talking about supply side reform. It is an important task for our textile industry to go to production capacity, inventory, leverage, cost reduction and compensation.

In the whole national economy, manufacturing is undoubtedly a supply side. In the industrial chain of the entire industrial economy, our consumer goods in the industry is actually the back end of the industry.

But in the industrial chain of the entire textile industry, our capacity to go is still raw material, so we mainly go to chemical fiber, cotton spinning and dyeing and printing.

Moreover, under the deployment of the State Council, the Ministry of industry and commerce is formulating the three year plan of three goods, that is, increasing varieties, creating brands and improving quality, obviously in the industrial economy under the overall arrangement of supply side reform under the central government's deployment, which are important measures for the consumer goods industry.

As we all know, especially for our consumer goods, we need to meet the needs of consumers. We have increased a lot of varieties in recent years.

Quality is our pursuit in recent years. The biggest short board is our brand. With the support of three products, we believe that our varieties, quality and brand building will make great progress in 2016.