Export Pressure Remained High In The First Quarter Of 2016.

Data show that imports fell by 4% in December 2015, the smallest decline since December 2014, while exports in December increased by 2.3% compared with the first rise in February 2015. Market expectations 。

As the news came out, many foreign media used the word "surprise" to describe the two words and attributed the rebound to the depreciation of the renminbi. In response, Huang Songping, spokesman for the General Administration of customs, said that the weakness of the renminbi helped exports in December, but the impact of the weaker renminbi on exports would gradually decline, and the exchange rate would be closely watched in the future. In addition, he also stressed that the increase in exports in December was temporary and did not represent a trend, and export pressure remained relatively high in the first quarter of 2016.

It is worth noting that the import and export value of the whole year decreased by 7% compared with the same period last year, which is the first time since 2009, when China's imports and exports have fallen 6 years later.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and economic cooperation, also stressed in the interview that we should not over interpret the data for one month. He believes that the weakening of the RMB has a stimulating effect on foreign trade, but the RMB exchange rate is subject to many factors. In the long run, it can not be a major factor to support the rebound in trade data.

Although market organizations predict that the surprise of December will continue in the future, in the view of Bai Ming, the future trade data will remain under pressure, and the rebound in December will be difficult to sustain.

First, look at the annual data. In 2015, the total value of imports and exports of China's goods trade was 24 trillion and 590 billion yuan, down 7% from 2014. Among them, exports of 14 trillion and 140 billion yuan, down 1.8%; imports 10 trillion and 450 billion yuan, down 13.2%; trade surplus of 3 trillion and 690 billion yuan, 56.7% expansion.

Huang Songping explained that the emerging market countries are in a better economic position and relatively stable political situation, which has promoted China and these emerging markets. Trade Development and emerging markets have also become an important direction of China's exports.

Compared with the United States, the European Union and Japan, China's performance in US dollar denominated exports is only 2.5%.

In 2015, China will remain the world's top priority in total trade in goods. Exit Market share will also reach 13%, which has been further improved compared with the previous year.

At the press conference held in January 13, 2016, Huang Songping's opening speech said: "in 2015, the overall recovery of the global economy is weak, the prospects are tortuous, the domestic economic downward pressure is bigger, and the development of foreign trade has entered a new normal."

In addition to the double drop in data, another prominent feature of the new normal is that China's imports and exports of traditional major trading partners have dropped sharply, while trade with emerging market countries has maintained a relatively good level.

In 2015, bilateral trade between China and the European Union and Japan decreased by 7.2% and 9.9% respectively, and the two were China's first and fifth largest trading partners.

As for China's trade data recovering in December, Peng Bo reported that this means that the depreciation of the RMB has already begun to see clues in promoting China's foreign trade competitiveness.

Ding Shuang, chief economist of Greater China in Standard Chartered Bank, said that exchange rate fluctuations usually take 3 to 6 months to show in the trade figures, and 5 months have passed since August 2015.

CICC issued a report that although the depreciation rate of RMB against the basket exchange rate has not been great since August, the real effective exchange rate has dropped by 10 percentage points or so, and the strong currency's inhibition on exports has weakened.

Huang Songping also admitted that in recent years, the exchange rate changes are relatively fast, and the exchange rate changes will affect China's import and export to a certain extent. But he stressed that this year's foreign trade situation will affect the import and export of foreign trade, and the impact of the weaker renminbi on exports will gradually decrease.

Ding Shuang judged that the warmer data in December might be the beginning of China's trade data better.

Bai Ming also believes that the depreciation of the RMB will support trade in the short term. But in the long run, the RMB exchange rate needs to be balanced in many factors such as balance of payments, internationalization process and capital market. It does not depend entirely on the trade situation.

Moreover, simply relying on the depreciation of the renminbi will not really stimulate the development of trade. "A long time, one partner will ask for price adjustment, the two is that competitors from other countries can also use the exchange rate, the advantage of depreciation will disappear." Bai Ming said.