2016 Market Analysis Of Textile Industry

2015

The overall situation is weak.

Data show that most of the product prices hit a new low.

Acrylic fiber and nylon are 5 years low; viscose staple fiber and PTA industry chain products have set a new low in the past 10 years; only viscose industry chain is rising, namely cotton yarn and viscose staple fiber.

The remaining commodities were on a downward trend, with the top three ranking being acrylonitrile, acrylic staple and spandex.

Cotton spinning Market: price dropping quickly after target price

Since 2015, due to the continuous optimization of industrial policies, the opening of stock cycle, the decline of cotton quality and the impact of imported yarn, cotton prices are at the bottom of the market, and the imbalance between supply and demand is the main reason for the price decline.

From the US cotton supply and demand balance sheet released in December by the US Department of agriculture (USDA), we can see that China's final inventory in 2015 is 14 million 160 thousand tons, but consumption is only 7 million 80 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio is as high as 200.06%.

At the same time, downstream yarn in recent years, with the import yarn to seize the market and demand is not strong, prices continue to decline.

Chemical fiber Market: in the "cold winter" period

The demand for weaving and wearing continues to slump, the decline of spandex and polyamide is still further expanding, acrylonitrile production capacity is increasing too fast, and the surplus situation is aggravating. This industry chain has dropped directly from the top of last year's list to the end of 2015, especially when the price of PTA industry chain is below 5000 yuan / ton. In April, the two explosion accident lifted the market in a short time, but it was only a flash in the pan, and the price continued to refresh its historical lows.

Up to now, China's PTA has an excess capacity of about 15 million tons. In this context, the drop in capacity, the slow release of new capacity, and the low maintenance rate of the industry are prominent.

Upstream international crude oil prices accelerated decline, the US crude oil futures contract fell to a minimum of 34.53 U.S. dollars / barrel, exacerbating the plight of the PTA industry.

In the lower reaches, polyester is affected by low cost, excess supply and low demand.

Viscose staple fiber

Viscose staple fiber since the beginning of March 2015 nearly 10 years of low bottom rebound, after 7 months rose 3000 yuan / ton, more than 26%.

The main reason is the improvement of viscose staple supply pattern. After adjustment in recent years, the growth rate of viscose staple fiber began to slow down in 2013, and the growth rate in 2015 was even lower to 5.2%.

Moreover, the environmental constraints were more stringent in 2015, and the supply side decreased significantly. In March, the closure capacity involved more than 20 tons, accounting for 5% of the total capacity of 2015.

2016:

The market will still be down but better than last year.

The textile market will continue to explore in 2016, but it will be slightly better than in 2015.

At present, China's textile industry is at a low speed growth period.

In 2015 1~11, the output of yarn was 36 million 618 thousand tons, an increase of 4.8% over the same period last year. The output of cloth was 6 million 431 thousand tons, an increase of 2.7% compared with the same period last year, and the output of chemical fiber was 44 million 224 thousand tons, an increase of 12.7% over the same period last year.

Retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles were 1 trillion and 195 billion 350 million yuan, an increase of 10.1% over the same period last year.

However, exports are still hard to see a marked recovery. According to customs statistics, in November 2015, China exported about 21 billion 982 million US dollars in textile and clothing, a decrease of 9.71% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 7.07% in the ring.

Exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were US $8 billion 668 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.21%, a decrease of 5.88% in the ring ratio, and an export garment and accessories accessories of US $13 billion 314 million, a decrease of 10.03% over the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.83% in the ring.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, said in an interview with reporters that the chemical fiber industry is destined to be a year of deep adjustment in 2016.

In the future, there will be new changes in production capacity, such as the growth rate has dropped significantly. During the "13th Five-Year" period, the average annual growth target of China's chemical fiber production will be adjusted to 3.6% from 9.2% in 12th Five-Year.

Recently, the central government has stepped up structural reforms in the supply side, which refers to capacity production. Some of the chemical fiber products will enter the stage of eliminating backward production capacity.

Xia Ting said that under the background of overcapacity, it was not ruled out that some commodity prices in the textile industry hit a new low in 2016. The demand for the terminal was still not strong. The problems of factory operation, the risk of raw material price fluctuation, the high cost of labor and the shortage of funds had long puzzled the enterprises.

At the same time, the superiority of Southeast Asia is obvious and orders are shifting outwards.

Of course, it is worth mentioning that the full liberalization of the second child, the "one belt" and other nouns will give 2016 of the textile industry to inject new blood, the policy to stimulate demand upgrading is a new opportunity and a new challenge.