A Shares Rebound Rhythm Short, Fast And Numerous Twists And Turns

The five support reasons for the spring rebound window last week have been tested and tamped with the rebound foundation in an unexpected way, which will help to boost the market before the Spring Festival.

First, "the existence of stability strength, RMB."

It has been confirmed by the market that the Hong Kong dollar has begun to rebound against the US dollar. In addition, the recent central bank liquidity Forum's position on the exchange rate has confirmed our judgement in the near future.

Second, the main technical indexes of the main stock index, such as the S & P 500 and the German DAX index, stabilized on schedule on Thursday, and rebounded sharply on Friday after a new round of easing expectations by the European Central Bank.

The surge in oil prices stimulated by the severe cold of the weekend, driving the rebound of energy stocks and other commodities, will help overseas stock markets continue to rebound.

Third, "before the Spring Festival is the expected improvement of the domestic liquidity policy combination, the window period for gradual realization" has been confirmed.

Fourthly, "judging from market turnover and turnover rate", the A stock market regenerates the stock market on Friday, which shows that the stage of panic is fully released.

Fifth, industrial capital maintenance

The willingness to rise has been temporarily established.

The stock market is like a battlefield. It is analogous to the spring rebound time window in the battle of Chang Jin lake.

In January 18th, the conference call said, "the scene of fighting and annihilation in the ice and snow field is to endure the torment of the whole heart and wait for the enemy to enter into the encirclement circle and resolutely attack and solve the battle quickly. This is my artistic portrayal of the spring rebound in 2016."

As for the battle of Chang Jin Hu, Mao Zedong commented that "under very difficult conditions, we have accomplished a great strategic task". The volunteers set up an ambush around the US forces at more than 30 degrees below zero. In the end, the US army killed more than 10000 people and reduced the number of personnel to 40%. The ratio of the reduction in the number of volunteers was 1/3, a total of 48000 people were reduced, and there were more than 28000 frostbite victims.

If you take part in this rebound, do well.

It is very important to step on a good rhythm and be suitable for pactional investors. Otherwise, they will be severely injured if they rush to move up and down.

Because, we have always stressed that this spring rebound is a deep rebound, is a period of breathing, the operation is more difficult, too radical on the warehouse may eventually lead to casualties.

The potential systemic risk in the two or three quarter is still not fully released or fully falsified. When the risk premium increases further in the two quarter, the market may not be as good as this time window.

Whether or not to participate and how to participate in the spring rebound depends on the nature of investors' funds and reiterates our suggestions for different types of institutional investors.

Growth style public fund managers, "their own children's own newspaper", lighter positions, can continue to retain the core stock around the band; if the position is heavier, you can take advantage of the rebound to reduce positions, adjust positions.

A public fund manager who has flexible investment style proposes to lock in the relative benefits he has gained, and constantly seek relative benefits in "less people".

For investors who have to operate at high positions, it is recommended to use rebounding positions to adjust to more defensive and cash based undervalued blue chips.

For investors who assess absolute returns, it is still the primary task to control the positions. Large funds are not suitable for deep rebound.

If the position is lighter, and want to participate in the rebound, it is necessary to act according to their trading ability, such as being good at trading, can be relatively positive; if they are not good at trading, they would rather not do it, but they are afraid to not do it at the beginning. Finally, they can not afford to pay the bill. If we want to participate in the rebound, we should choose stocks with good liquidity and high risk and income matching, and get in and out.