The Global Financial Market Also Has A Rare Breathing.

Since the beginning of the year, the global stock market has been in a state of widespread sorrow. A big reason is the shift of the global loose monetary policy. The United States officially started the rate hike cycle. The ECB did not expand the scale of QE purchases, and the Central Bank of China continued to fail in March.

But last week, the European Central Bank took the lead in making changes. The Bank of Japan declared "seriously considering" other monetary easing measures, and the US interest rate hike was also significantly delayed. The Central Bank of China put 1 trillion and 500 billion huge funds into the market last week, which means that the central bank's attitude has changed in a short period of time, and the global financial market has also received a rare breathing.

Interest rate hikes are still expected and long-term risks are not excluded.

But in the long run, worries remain. First, the US interest rate increase is expected to be postponed rather than terminated. The unemployment rate in the United States is close to full employment level, and the Fed's interest rate should not be underestimated.

The determination to expect the fed to take another round of QE4 is not realistic.

The European economy has been improving for the past 1 years, so a relaxed delay should be a short-term rather than a normal one.

To guard against

Wait for the bright tomorrow.

In the 15 year, China's economic growth rate dropped to 6.9%, the lowest level in 90 years.

Looking forward to the future, the Chinese government's determination to reform the supply side is clear, so it is necessary to reduce the expectation of easing monetary policy to stimulate demand such as lowering interest rates and cutting interest rates.

Stable exchange rate first and monetary easing abdicated.

Last week, Hongkong's linked exchange rate was hit hard, and Hong Kong stocks also fell sharply. At the same time, Soros said, "I have already sold out stocks and Asian currencies", which is compared with 17 years ago in Asia.

Run in the same groove.

Subsequently, the Xinhua News Agency issued a tough article, saying that the central bank has taken measures to stabilize the renminbi, and those who are malicious short sellers will face huge losses and serious legal consequences.

If the stable exchange rate is the primary objective, then the interest rate policy will be constrained, and the recent policy of lowering interest rates will fail again, which means easing monetary policy or facing abdication.

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The time and space of this spring rally are very weak. Therefore, the operation strategy is based on the "snooker method" for defensive counterattack, and after the market panic, the layout is laid out.

The indicators for reference include market turnover and turnover rate, that is, when the market turnover rate is very low, and when the market loses energy, it can be brave and grasp the stage rebound.

We can focus on the four major investment areas in the annual strategy of Xingye's "fight the war of annihilation" based on the idea of "setting up new and dilapidated", especially the band operation of some underlying stocks with in-depth research and better matching of risk and earnings.

Policy oriented opportunities - looking for new theme opportunities, cyclical stocks rebound + SOE reform (mergers and acquisitions) + new investment.

In particular, before the Spring Festival, the rebound power of cyclical stocks strengthened, including the recent severe cold weather in the northern hemisphere, which stimulated the rebound in oil prices and led to a rebound in commodity futures. Recently, overseas expectations for the new policy of the European Central Bank and Japan and the Fed's no interest rate increase in January were significantly improved; domestic commodity futures continued to rebound, and the implementation of the supply side reform, excess capacity dissolving, and the reform of state-owned enterprises will increase after the "two sessions".

The "few places", the institutions are seriously low matching, the most ineffective and the relative benefits, and the pformation shell resources have the game value and other reasons.

Especially cautious game "technology stocks" deep rebound, overvalued growth stocks "bubble" road may have a long time, but the phased "kill more" kill power can fully release, can be combined with the follow-up industry has more bright prospects for development and the ability of the big east has the ability and willingness to actively maintain the stock price, so as to select stocks trading.