A Shares Have Four Characteristics In 2016.

In the medium term, we reiterate the 2016 point of caution and fight the war of annihilation.

From the dimension of half a year or three quarters, we need to guard against the rising trend of risk premium, so as to make the A share market wander at a low level, defuse bubbles, consolidate the foundation and get more reason and understanding.

On the one hand, we need to be careful.

The main task of the "annihilation war" of structural reform is to resolve the "pains" of overcapacity and the elimination of zombie enterprises, which will lead to an increase in credit risk, bankruptcy risk and unemployment pressure, which can track the spread of credit.

On the other hand, external factors may further complicate, including the continued decline of oil prices and other commodities, which will lead to the bankruptcy risk of pillar enterprises in related resource countries, thereby enhancing the probability of regional financial crisis; the linked exchange rate system of Hong Kong dollar is being tested; in 2016, influenced by interest rate cycles, the US stocks may face the "Davies double kill" that the valuation center is down and the growth performance is stagnant in the medium term.

2016 quotations need to be fully measured.

Earnings ratio is the best way to take advantage of time.

Considering the medium-term trend of rising risk premium, we will take into account the four characteristics of the A share market in 2016: the bubble market, the volatility market, the structural market and the expansion of the market. After experiencing the "big year" of investment returns for several consecutive years, the approximate probability of 2016 is a "small year". We must not be blind and optimistic.

The indicators for reference include market turnover and turnover rate, that is, when the market turnover rate is very low, and when the market loses energy, it can be brave and grasp the stage.

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We can focus on the four major investment areas in the annual strategy of Xingye's "fight the war of annihilation" based on the idea of "setting up new and dilapidated", especially the band operation of some underlying stocks with in-depth research and better matching of risk and earnings.

Policy oriented opportunities - looking for new theme opportunities, cyclical stocks rebound + SOE reform (mergers and acquisitions) + new investment.

In particular, before the Spring Festival, the rebound power of cyclical stocks strengthened, including the recent severe cold weather in the northern hemisphere, which stimulated the rebound in oil prices and led to a rebound in commodity futures. Recently, overseas expectations for the new policy of the European Central Bank and Japan and the Fed's no interest rate increase in January were significantly improved; domestic commodity futures continued to rebound, and the implementation of the supply side reform, excess capacity dissolving, and the reform of state-owned enterprises will increase after the "two sessions".

The "few places", the institutions are seriously low matching, the most ineffective and the relative benefits, and the pformation shell resources have the game value and other reasons.

Especially cautious game "technology stocks" deep rebound, overvalued growth stocks "bubble" road may have a long time, but the phased "kill more" kill power can fully release, can be combined with the follow-up industry has more bright prospects for development and the ability of the big east has the ability and willingness to actively maintain the stock price, so as to select stocks trading.