Is The Rebound Premature? The Next 1 Days Will Be Seen.

Five reasons for supporting the rebound time window are re examined.

First, is the existence of stability and stability, the convergence and stabilization of the RMB exchange rate has been falsified?

In the past week, we have seen the efforts of the financial regulatory authorities to curb the overseas shorting of the renminbi. Therefore, before we were optimistic about the time window for a deep rebound before and after the Spring Festival, one of the important logical prerequisites is that, in the face of the attack of the overseas exchange rate war, the policy will not be self distracting, it will certainly prevent the path of the panic pmission, and will not make the stock market and the exchange rate form a vicious circle, but instead turn the passive into the initiative.

Therefore, we judge that before and after the Spring Festival is the final stage of the RMB exchange rate decision making. At this stage, the RMB exchange rate is stable and is conducive to emotional rehabilitation.

However, there were new variables on Wednesday, and overseas short strength "combination" attacks on Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong stocks triggered a 98 year recurrence.

Even so, on Wednesday and Thursday morning, A share investors also had strong expectations of "the more chaos outside, the more stable the A shares would be." and even felt that Hong Kong stocks were offshore markets and "no mother's distress". Therefore, A shares were only slightly adjusted when Hong Kong stocks collapsed.

However, with the widespread dissemination of "let the market more freely fluctuate" in various media and media since Thursday, A share investors' confidence in the rebound has begun to collapse.

We should not allow sudden death to cure chronic diseases. When the exchange rate alarm has not yet been lifted, A share investors have been shocked. If there is no strength to maintain stability, if the A shares fall freely, there will be a series of unexpected vicious chain reactions.

Tomorrow's "visible hand" is one of the most important variables for the continuation of this rally.

Second, is it possible to falsify the probability of collective technical withdrawal of major stock indices such as the S & P 500 and the German DAX index?

After the big crash, European and American stock indexes returned to the box of the past two years.

If in the current position, the three major U.S. stock indexes if they choose to directly break the position, kill and drop.

It will trigger a global rapid slump. If this is the case, China's regulators will probably reduce the intervention in the stock market's initiative, and the rebound of A shares will also be aborted.

However, are stocks still quite resilient and stubborn? Are they breaking the risk of a fall or a gradual rebound? I prefer the latter, after all, when the Asia Pacific and European stock markets collapsed on Wednesday.

Although it also experienced panic at first, it finally pulled up.

Therefore, if this position, the three major U.S. stock indexes can bring the global stock market to a steady stage, it will help the A stock board to make a stage of the rebound time window.

Third, "before the Spring Festival is domestic liquidity."

"The expected improvement and the window of gradual realization" - the judgement has been confirmed.

In recent years, the central bank has not only "cut interest rates" and "reduce the accuracy", but also has fully fired the short-term liquidity. Since January, the central bank has accumulated about 800000000000 liquidity through MLF and many other tools.

Fourthly, "after the first wave of warehousing, institutional investors will enter an observation period" - the judgment needs to be amended, because the positions of institutional investors are too fast and difficult to make reference. We need to judge the market from the turnover volume and turnover rate. At noon on January 18th, we saw the turnover rate of land and historical lows, which reminded the spring rebound time window to start.

Since the era of media development, the consensus expectations of investors have rapidly formed. After institutional investors' big fluctuations in 2015, the speed of opening and reducing positions is amazing.

For example, last Friday or even this Monday, the positions of many funds and hot money have dropped sharply, but this Tuesday has rebounded rapidly.

If we continue to shoot down on Friday, the probability of a rebound will be greater. If we start to shrink, there will be a chance for us to rebound.

Fifthly, the willingness to maintain the share price of industrial capital is still rising, but it has potential risks.

Over the past week, the number of companies that have increased holdings and commitments has continued to rise.

However, if the main board 2800 points near the adoption of "no defense, no resistance" and let go quickly, then the following major shareholders pledge, ESOP and other possible black swans.