It Is Said That The Valuation Of A Shares Is Close To The Lowest Level In History.

From the comparison of A shares at the bottom of several historical PB, the current valuation level is indeed very close to the bottom of history, but it is mainly affected by the undervalued financial sector. After excluding the financial sector, the level of A shares PB is still far higher than the bottom of history.

The overall PB level of A shares is 1.7 times, while it was 1.6 times at 998 o'clock in 2005 and 2 times in 2008 1664, so the current valuation is very close to the bottom of history.

But in fact, the main reason why the overall valuation level of A shares is so low is that the PB level of the financial services sector is only 0.9 times, which is 50% lower than the valuation level at the bottom of the first two times.

If we eliminate financial services, the PB level of A shares is now 2.3 times, which is 40% higher than that at the bottom of history.

After the A shares are eliminated from the financial sector, their net assets earning power (ROE) has been significantly lower than that of 2005 and 2008, which makes the comparison of absolute value through PB absolutely meaningless.

It represents the valuation of net assets, but after the A shares were eliminated from the financial sector, its net assets profitability (i.e. net assets return rate, ROE) continued to decline in recent years. It is estimated that in 2015, after the elimination of financial stocks, only 7% of ROE will be eliminated in the financial sector. In 2005, the A share will be excluded from the financial ROE at 7.5% at 998 o'clock in 2005, while the A share will be eliminated at 8.9% in 2008. The result shows that: the A stock is 40% higher than the bottom of the history, but even if it falls further 40% to the bottom of the historical level, you can not say that the valuation has bottomed out, because the current value is far from the previous years, and the absolute value of the pure comparison has no significance. PB

Compared with the first two "stock disasters", after the crash, "people's hearts"

"It becomes more obvious, and it will be a very long process to gather the popularity of the market.

Last year, a fund manager asked me such a question: "from the experience at home and abroad, how soon will a new bubble emerge after a stock market bubble burst?" the answer is: "very, very long".

Sometimes, even though the bad factors that puncture the bubble disappear completely,

It's also hard to get back to the bubble level in the short term.

The reason is that the damage to people's minds after the bubble burst is too great. It will be a very long process to re gather popularity.

The so-called "all in one go, and then decline, three exhausting", after the new year's crash is the third time in nearly a year, "stock crash", compared with the first two "stock disaster", this time we observed that "the collapse of the heart" has become more obvious.

From the institutional point of view, on the one hand, the fourth quarter of last year issued many new products that pursue absolute gains (such as guaranteed fund, two class debt basis, annuity, universal insurance, etc.), which were the fourth quarter of last year.

The most important source of incremental funding, but the sharp fall after the beginning of the year, made them hard to accumulate "safety cushion" was punctured instantly, many products were restricted by trading rules and had to be cleared.

Next, they need to re accumulate the "safety cushion", and then gradually increase the stock positions according to the thickness of the safety cushion. This will be a very long process. On the other hand, many public funds pursuing relative returns will have a high stock position at the end of last year.

And the beginning of the new year is beginning to fall, and the paction is not active, which makes them very difficult to quickly reduce their positions, which is rather "high stifling".

Therefore, if the market really starts to stabilize next, the first thing for them to do is to adjust the excessive positions to the neutral level, and from the extreme bias to the balanced allocation in the structure.

From the perspective of households: after the two stock market crash last year, the balance of trading settlement has gone through a sharp decline, but it has never fallen below 2 trillion yuan. This shows that many retail investors have reduced their positions after the "stock market crash". However, the money after the reduction has not been pferred through the bank card pfer, but is always ready to enter the market. After the collapse, the balance of the trading settlement has fallen rapidly by 2 trillion yuan, which means that many retail investors may have "totally lost their minds". Therefore, the money will be pferred to the other assets through the silver certificate pfer, and the money will have to go back to the stock market again. It may be necessary to wait until the A shares once again show the "money making effect". From scattered