How Much Do You Think Of 2016?

Immediately after the new year, the rotation of cotton reserves has become the most concerned topic in the cotton market.

As early as the end of 2015, the market parties had made various predictions about the time and price of the cotton reserves.

In 2016, the increase of cotton reserves is expected to increase gradually. As for when to turn out, there is no official news.

But it is certain that when the bulk of cotton reserves enter the market, it will have a great impact on the 2015/2016 cotton annual cotton sales.

Since the beginning of 2015, domestic cotton prices have been "low and low", cotton farmers "sell cotton is difficult", and cotton enterprises have lost more than 90%, a large part of which is due to about 10000000 tons of state cotton stocks, which makes the market dare not move.

Therefore, in 2016, China's cotton "go stockpiles" bear the brunt of these about 10000000 tons of state cotton stocks.

Because of this, the market is more and more concerned about the national cotton reserves.

At present, there are three main points in the market for national cotton reserves: first, the time of rotation of state-owned cotton stores; the industry generally believes that it will advance ahead of 2015; the two is that the volume of rotation may be relatively large; the three is that the price will be reduced.

According to insiders, the current rules for the delivery of cotton reserves are at the stage of deliberation. There is still some time left for finalization. After the Spring Festival, the policy may fall.

Reserve cotton rotation time disputes

At present, there is a big difference in the prediction time of storage cotton in the market.

There are many people in the industry who believe that the state will turn out cotton reserves in 3 and April. Although there is a lot of doubt about this statement, it has not been able to stop the rumors from becoming more and more true.

Yang Zhijiang, a market analyst at China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd.

The best throw time should be before the end of April.

In this way, the cotton planting area in the northern hemisphere will be affected by the price of dumping and storage, and the global cotton supply and demand pattern in 2016 will be improved.

According to statistics, as at the end of last year, the sales rate of lint cotton in Xinjiang was less than 40%. The formulation of the rotation time was inclined to the new cotton that was not sold by the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps about 1 million tons, or more than 1000 tons of cotton reserves. Yang Zhijiang admitted that this test is not only the wisdom of the management, but also the courage of the management.

Due to the different positions of the industry, there are differences in the relevant suggestions for the delivery of cotton reserves.

Wang Xiaodong, President of Hebei new big east textile company, said that the time needed to store cotton should be around May 2016.

Cai Yajun, chairman of Hubei Yinfeng group, believes that after June or July, it will be more reasonable.

Cai Yajun said that the current cotton market is facing the situation of prominent structural contradictions and overcapacity.

Since the beginning of 2015, the consumption of new cotton in China is less than 2 million tons. In 2015, the total output of cotton was about 5 million 600 thousand tons, and now it still has about 3 million 500 thousand tons. If the consumption is 500 thousand tons per month, the cotton on the market can be maintained until the end of June.

As early as last year

At that time, Hou Zhenwu, deputy general manager of China cotton reserve management company, said that the rotation of cotton reserves was in accordance with the principle of promoting sustainable and healthy development of the industry, guiding the smooth operation of the market, reducing the financial burden and improving the cotton reserve control mechanism.

The premise of the round out policy is not to suppress the market, and adopt the way of "asymmetric rotation, first round and backward entry, multiple rounds and fewer rounds" to orderly digest the state reserve cotton stocks and gradually reduce the reserve scale to a reasonable level.

And when the market situation is more complicated this year, when the reserve cotton will come out, it will not only achieve the purpose of inventory, but also suppress the market.

Many people believe that the reserve cotton should be sold at the market price instead of government pricing.

Huang Hongyu, President of Tongzhou cotton industry group in Henan, said: "the purpose of state dumping is to stock, so long as we can sell it, we will win."

If you want to make sure that you can sell, the fixed price is definitely not good. We should adopt floating price as the market fluctuates, and link the inside and outside cotton, and keep the difference between the inside and outside cotton price in the reasonable category.

Cai Yajun, chairman of Hubei Yinfeng group, believes that it should be issued according to the current cotton price index, which not only protects the circulation enterprises, but also protects the textile enterprises.

Chen Tao, general manager of Louis Dreyfus Corporation, said that the price of the reserve cotton can be determined by floating with the Cotlook A index.

The index is the average price of 5 countries M 1-1/8chr (34) on the same day on the same day, and the average price of cotton delivered to Bremen in 3.5~4.5. The price is unlikely to be affected.

The cotton trade in Uzbekistan is based on the index, and the US subsidy policy also uses the index as the basis.

Yang Zhijiang said the basic principle is to make China's cotton price competitive.

He predicts that if China's cotton price is close to the domestic price of cotton production, it should be priced at 10000 yuan / ton. If China's cotton price is close to the port CIF price, the national reserve cotton reserve should be priced at 11500 yuan / ton.

Previously, the market "rumor" of "low price" round out, its theoretical effect may include reducing inventory and reducing financial burden, but for large cotton textile enterprises, "low price" round out is more like a "disaster".

Because in recent years, large and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises have a good stock, and the low price of cotton reserves will make their inventory face huge losses.

And small and medium-sized enterprises will be put into battle without stock. The price of cotton yarn is more advantageous than that of large and medium-sized enterprises. The capacity of recovery may increase the supply of the market, and enterprises will sell each other to reduce prices, so that enterprises will still not get the desired profits.

Therefore, large and medium-sized textile enterprises will be greatly affected.

Cotton enterprises intensify spot sales

Due to the increasing number of discussions in recent market concerning the delivery of cotton reserves, the cotton spot market has brought great pressure.

Cotton enterprises and cotton traders are worried that once the cotton reserves are released in 3 and April, the spot stock of cotton will not sell.

There are also professional suggestions that from the perspective of textile enterprises, once the cotton reserves are out, the low grade cotton will face challenges again in terms of price. Therefore, cotton enterprises and cotton traders with larger inventory will have better sales if they have low grade cotton in their hands.

In the face of the continued decline in cotton prices, how will cotton enterprises respond? A cotton manufacturer in the mainland said that the cotton market continued to weaken, and the domestic cotton structure was in disorder, which basically stopped the acquisition work, especially for low quality cotton, either to reject or lower the price.

Later storage cotton rotation, due to the long storage time of storage cotton, has a greater impact on color and other indicators. After upgrading, it will have a certain price advantage, which brings pressure to Cotton Traders and traders.

In addition, high inventory of national cotton reserves has made cotton sales very slow this year.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, according to the domestic cotton output estimated 5 million 216 thousand tons, as of January 22nd, the total processing of 4 million 586 thousand tons of lint, the cumulative sales of lint 2 million 278 thousand tons.

Among them, Xinjiang processed 3 million 550 thousand tons of lint and sold 1 million 494 thousand tons of lint, and the sales rate was less than 50%.

Xinjiang, a cotton enterprise, said the current 2015 year

Basically, it has been purchased and processed, which is mainly the problem of late sales.

In 2016, the rotation of cotton reserves will go into normalization, which will bring severe tests to business operators.

At present, the only way for enterprises to avoid loss expansion is to sell lint as soon as possible.

It is understood that with the Spring Festival approaching, in order to speed up the progress of sales, some cotton enterprises to increase prices and sell goods.

In mid January, the paction price of Xinjiang cotton was reduced by 100 yuan / ton ~200 yuan / ton in late December 2015, and the price of real estate cotton was reduced by 200 yuan / ton ~300 yuan / ton.

Textile enterprises believe that the cotton grade spreads should be widened.

At present, China's spot market has about 50% of new cotton stocks, and there is no need to worry about late supply.

However, according to the textile enterprises, the cotton quality of cotton enterprises and cotton traders is not high, and later supply can not meet the production demand of high count yarn.

Textile enterprises said: "cotton reserves are good or in stock, we only need cotton."

A textile manufacturer in Binzhou, Shandong, said that there were some gaps in textile cotton production, mainly due to the shortage of high-quality Xinjiang cotton and imported cotton.

As for reserve cotton, as long as we can get the 2014 grade 3129B, 2128B grade Xinjiang and SM grade cotton and cotton, we are satisfied.

"There are still some good cotton in the reserve cotton. We hope that there will be some pertinence in the storage of cotton.

The company official said that other enterprises around the same cotton also exist gaps, enterprises are more concerned about the quality of cotton reserves, if the quality is good will buy.

And some companies say they are more concerned about the price of cotton reserves, and they will do so if the price is right.

A textile manufacturer in Baoding, Hebei, said that the company mainly produces 10S~21S spun pure cotton yarn, blended yarn and 16S, 21S and 32S combed yarn. The quality requirements of cotton raw materials are not high, but the price is more concerned.

"Reserve cotton to factory price can not be higher than 10000 yuan / ton, otherwise it will not be considered."

The official said, first, because the national cotton store is Chen cotton, and mixed grade mixed, and other impurities, and secondly, because the auction reserve cotton need to pay a lot of margin, and after the auction to be settled within 7~10 working days, which makes the already strapped textile enterprises feel very pressure.

So if they are not cheap, they would rather choose real estate cotton.

The head of a textile enterprise in Jiangsu believes that the storage of cotton reserves will not cause much impact on the quality cotton market, but it may suppress the formation of low grade cotton prices.

"If bundles are sold, everyone's life may be even more sad."

A textile enterprise official said that high quality cotton is scarce resources.

At present, the reserve cotton is facing the pressure of going out of stock. In recent market, there are many discussions on whether the state will take the "bundled" sale of imported cotton and Xinjiang cotton with low quality cotton in proportion.

In addition, we are concerned about how to further improve the regulation mechanism of cotton reserves.

Wang Xiaodong, general manager of Hebei new big east textile company, thinks that the cotton should be graded and ready to shoot. It is necessary to turn out good quality and turn out medium and low grade cotton, and the price of medium and low grade cotton should be in line with international standards.

The price of cotton reserves should be increased. The first thing is to properly protect the normal production enterprises. Two, we should adjust the industrial structure and change from output to quality.

At the same time, it is suggested that a comprehensive re examination should be carried out on the important indicators of cotton reserves. The storage enterprises should be more concerned about the length, horse value, strength and short staple, and can take what they need.