2015, The First Tier Of Shopping Mall In The Three Tier Cities Shopping Center Rents Declined.

A shops in Guangzhou

Recently, the Gao Li International Research Department released the first floor rental of high-end shopping centers in the four tier cities in 2015.

Among them, the highest rent level is Shanghai, with a monthly rent of more than 1100 yuan per square meter.

Surprisingly, the rental level in Guangzhou is above 1000 yuan per square meter, ranking the top four tier cities.

For a long time, the level of real estate prices in Guangzhou has been flat in the top four tier cities. Housing prices are far behind those of the other three largest cities, or even half of Shenzhen. Grade A office rents are also lagging behind the other three cities, only half of Beijing. Only the rent of shopping center can fully reflect the status of Guangzhou's first tier cities.

The rental performance of Guangzhou shopping center is eye-catching, and its performance is also eye-catching.

In 2015, the Guangzhou shopping center rents decreased by -4.3%, much larger than that of Beijing and Shanghai's -1.6% and -1.2%.

Guangzhou 2015

Why did the rent fall in the four first tier cities? The main reason is the increase in supply.

According to the data of CB Richard Ellis, in 2015, the Guangzhou quality retail market has completed 6 new properties distributed in various districts and a total of about 500 thousand square meters.

The newly completed shopping centers are mainly located in the non core areas with lower rents, such as Wanda's new Wanda Plaza in Luogang and Nansha. The completion of these shopping centers, on the one hand, increases the vacancy rate and intensifies competition; on the other hand, it directly reduces the rent level of the whole city.

The situation in Beijing and Shanghai is similar to that in Guangzhou, where Gao Li attributed it to "the overall market rent is mainly lowered by new projects below the average rent level in emerging areas".

However, the demand for shopping centres in Beijing and Shanghai's non core regions is also strong and the rent level is relatively high, so the overall level of the whole city is not too low.

According to the introduction, in 2015, Beijing's high quality shop property market has 4 new projects with a total construction area of 300 thousand square meters, and the total stock of the market has increased to 4 million 600 thousand square meters.

Of the 4 new projects, only one new project is located in the core area. More than 90% of the new businesses are located in new regions such as Fengtai and Fangshan. The stock market share in emerging regions increased from 40% in the first quarter of 2014 to 55% at the end of 2015.

In 2015, a total of 7 shopping centers opened in Shanghai, with an additional supply of more than 500 thousand square meters, of which only two projects were located in the core area. The location of new opening projects and the lower average rent rents the average rent in the city.

Shenzhen is the exception to the rent trend because new shopping centres are mostly located in the core area.

In 2015, there were 3 shopping centres in Shenzhen, providing 320 thousand square meters of new supply, of which two projects were 240 thousand square meters in the core retail area.

In addition, the demand for Shenzhen shopping centers was strong throughout the year. The absorption rate increased by more than 20% over the same period last year, reaching nearly 320 thousand square meters, and maintained the stability of the average rent in the whole city.

B

Under the overall downward trend of shopping centres in the four first tier cities, the rents of some shopping centers and certain industries are still rising.

Tony, managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle, East China, said some shopping centers that implemented brand adjustment were the main driving force for Shanghai's rent growth.

Brand adjustment is mainly to welcome the arrival of fast fashion brands.

Fast fashion brands performed prominently in 2015, increased shops, improved or maintained the rental level of some shopping centers, and the same was true in the four big tier cities.

In Beijing, Zara expanded the store in Xidan from 800 square meters to 1700 square meters. New Look, H&M, Old Navy, Hollister and UNIQLO were all expanded last year, mainly in the emerging regions.

In Guangzhou, New Look, Old Navy and SPAO set up the first store in Southern China in 2015; H&M, Muji, UNIQLO, Urban Revivo increased the number of stores.

In Shanghai, H&M, Forever 21, Hollister and other brand expansion and store upgrade; Muji set up 3 storey shops in Huaihailu Road and enriched the commodity category, becoming the largest store of MUJI products in China, with an area of 840 square meters, becoming the best example of fast fashion brand expansion in Shanghai.

In Shenzhen, UNIQLO, GAP, H&M, UR, Old Navy, Chocolate set up a new store in Huaqiang North nine party shopping center, and Shenzhen's first COS opened in Yitian Holiday Plaza.

In addition to fast fashion brands, restaurants, children's retail brands and so on are also eye-catching in the first tier cities.

"As Guangzhou's experience in 2015 continues to grow, cross-border e-commerce outlets are active."

CB Richard Ellis official said.

As for luxury brands, they are differentiated. Some brands have been removed from stores in Guangzhou, expanded in Shanghai, and upgraded flagship stores in Beijing to enhance their brand image.

C 2016 shops rents decline probability

Compared with 2016, the new supply of shopping centres in 2015 was only "small."

In 2016, the market area of shopping centers in the four tier cities continued to increase.

At least Guangzhou has 500 thousand square meters, and the largest number of Shanghai is over 900 thousand square meters.

In addition to Guangzhou, the other three tier city shopping centers have doubled their new shopping areas than in 2014.

The huge new supply will inevitably lead to an increase in vacancy rate and hamper rent hikes.

Gao Li International predicts that in 2016, the rent of high-end shopping centers in the four largest cities will be dragged down by the huge supply, and the overall rent decline is a matter of great probability.