Second Tier City Shopping Center Vacancy Rate Worsening Situation In Crisis

China's land survey and Planning Institute, issued by the Ministry of land and land, released the main urban land price monitoring report in the fourth quarter of 2015. It predicted the land market situation in 2016. In particular, in recent years, the market tends to be saturated, homogenization competition and the impact of electricity providers. The inventory of commercial real estate in some areas can not be ignored, and the upward momentum of the price of commercial clothing is slightly insufficient.

The above report shows that in the four quarter of 2015, the growth rate of comprehensive, commercial, residential and industrial land price in the three quarter cities was 0.42%, 0.18%, 0.67% and 0.25%, respectively, and the growth rates were 1.80%, 1.52%, 2.50% and 1.21% respectively.

Yang Kewei, a researcher at an institution research center, told unbounded news analysis that the inventory risk of commercial real estate is now the consensus of the industry, especially in the three or four line cities where the urban population is insufficient and the commercial consumption power is relatively weak. Although the country will vigorously promote new urbanization in the coming period, and guide farmers to enter the city, this process will also solve some of the inventory problems of commercial real estate, but more are those commercial projects with central districts and advantageous locations, and for most of the new projects, the prospects are still worrying.

First Pacific Davies provides data for unbounded news. Second-tier cities (Tianjin, Qingdao, Dalian, Shenyang) market supply of Grade A office buildings is ushering in a peak, and the vacancy rate continues to rise.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the Tianjin office market welcomed the peak supply during the year. The total of three projects brought 190 thousand square meters of rental area. So far, the annual supply reached 260 thousand square meters, and the stock of Grade A office buildings in central urban area reached 870 thousand square meters. In the fourth quarter, the overall vacancy rate of Grade A office rental market in central Tianjin increased by 10.2 percentage points to 38.1% over the past four months. In the fourth quarter, the average rent of Grade A office rental market in central city of Tianjin is 142.1 yuan per square meter per month, which is basically the same as last year.

It is estimated that in 2016, five new projects will enter the market for Grade A office buildings in Tianjin's central urban area, which will bring about 316 thousand square meters of new supply to the market. However, due to the partial use of the Bank of Bohai and a few items that have not yet been determined, the area of the rental market is estimated to be around 300 thousand square meters, which is equivalent to 34% of the existing stock. The office vacancy rate will be increased to 41% at that time.

　　 Savills Xiao Changyan, senior manager of the North District market communications department, said that due to the intensification of competition, the uncertainty of Tianjin's non market entry projects has increased. On the one hand, it is uncertain about the time of entering the market; on the other hand, it is uncertain about the mode of renting and selling. In the future, with the promotion of many favorable policies such as integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and financial reform and innovation, Tianjin will focus on Beijing's advanced manufacturing and financial leasing, e-commerce and other modern service industries. While optimizing the industrial structure, it will also drive the effective vacancy of existing offices.

In the four quarter of 2015, a total of three new projects entered the market in Shenyang, bringing together 160 thousand square meters of new supply. So far, the stock of the city office has reached 1 million 460 thousand square meters. The vacancy level of Grade A office buildings in Shenyang is still serious, reaching 40.6% at the end of this year. At the same time, the rent fell to 132.7 yuan per square metre per month.

First Taiping Davies North China research and consulting department Zhi Chi bear Analysts said that due to some of the 2015 office projects postponed into the market, it is estimated that in the next three years (2016-2018 years), the four cities will face more large-scale new supply. At that time, the situation of oversupply will be more severe, and the vacancy rate will also go higher. When supply exceeds demand, high-quality market entry will significantly upgrade market quality.

As part of the project was postponed to the market, there were no new projects in Qingdao at the end of the fourth quarter of last year. So far, only one Huarun project has brought 60 thousand square meters of new supply throughout the whole year, and the rental stock of the whole city office is 1 million 530 thousand square meters. Small financial companies are still the main demand. Meanwhile, due to the instability of such companies, the vacancy rate of office buildings in Qingdao has increased by 2.1 percentage points to 19.9%. At the end of the fourth quarter, the rent of Grade A office buildings in Qingdao dropped by 0.3% to 102.1 yuan per square meter in the first half of last year, down 0.5% from the same period last year.

By the end of 2015, Dalian had not entered the market for two consecutive years, and the rental stock of the city's office space was 1 million 120 thousand square meters. Although no new projects entered the market, the downturn in the real economy still led to an increase of 2 percentage points to 10.2% at the end of the year. At the end of the fourth quarter, the rent of Grade A office buildings in Dalian dropped by 0.6% to 124.3 yuan per square meter in the first half of last year, down 1.9% from the same period last year.