The Stock Market Frequently Presents A Spectacle Problem

The phenomenon of "thousands of shares down limit" is frequently staged, which is more or less related to the abnormal development of its earlier stage. Therefore, for Liu Shiyu, the new chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, how to change the path of abnormal development of China's stock market is an urgent problem to be solved during his tenure.

Since June last year, China's stock market has experienced nearly 20 times of the "1000 share drop limit" phenomenon, which can also be called a world wonder. However, more people believe that the sharp rise and fall of the stock market in the past eight months is closely related to the unique high speculative atmosphere of the Chinese stock market.

It is undeniable that the low proportion of institutional investors and small and medium-sized retail investors have become the dominant force in the market, which is an important reason for the high degree of speculation in the long-term market. Throughout the mature foreign markets, the proportion of institutional investors has basically remained at a relatively high level. Among them, in our Hong Kong stock market, the proportion of institutional investors has basically remained between 60 and 65%. As for the major European and American markets with a longer history, the proportion of institutional investors has even reached more than 80%.

The slow development of institutional investors is a true reflection of the current development of China's stock market. However, for this phenomenon, the management has also accelerated the pace of entering the market of social security funds, pension funds and even some foreign funds in recent years, so as to gradually change the low proportion of institutional investors in the market.

However, at this stage, we are faced with another situation, that is, institutions investor The speculation is even stronger than that of small and medium-sized retail investors. As Gao Xiqing, the former vice chairman of the CSRC, said, we can't say that Chinese retail investors are immature, but that institutional stock speculation is like retail investors under the current management model.

Looking back at the stock market in 2014 and 2015, in fact, it is basically inseparable from one feature, that is, the market is basically in the pattern of "leverage for success and leverage for failure". However, for leveraged funds, because they have the dual function of helping rise and fall, they have also played an indirect role in helping the market fall in the past eight months.

Therefore, for Liu Shiyu, the new chairman of the CSRC, how to change China equity market The road of abnormal development is a difficult problem that needs to be solved urgently during his tenure. At the same time, it is more necessary to properly handle the secondary distribution of wealth in the stock market, so that the development of the market is more in line with the vital interests of many parties.

In fact, from the development of leverage funds in the past two years, it is basically in the pattern of explosive development. However, from the analysis of specific data, the development speed of OTC financing is not the fastest, and the fastest development is OTC financing funds.

Taking the balance of OTC financing as an example, in July 2014, the business scale was less than 450 billion yuan, and in December 2014, it reached about 1 trillion yuan. By June 2015, this development scale had reached a record high, reaching 2.27 trillion yuan. As for over-the-counter funding, the most rapid development time was from March to May 2015, and its general capital leverage ratio was more than 3-5 times, or even more than 10 times. At the same time, the stock market also experienced a unilateral irrational rise in the same period. During this period, the potential size of OTC capital allocation may have reached more than 2 trillion, and its development speed is quite amazing.

However, with a series of“ Deleveraging ”After the process of "de foaming", OTC financing has basically been comprehensively cleaned, and the scale of OTC financing has also shrunk by more than half. However, this round of vigorous "deleveraging" and "de bubbling" market has directly reduced the market value, and the wealth of many middle classes has also been cleaned.

As a result, the current situation that institutional investors' speculative behavior is better than that of small and medium-sized retail investors, in the final analysis, is more or less related to the defects of the market system. To say the least, if China can increase the proportion of institutional investors in the future, this will not fundamentally change the highly speculative characteristics of the stock market. On the contrary, as the proportion of institutional investors continues to rise, it actually means that small and medium-sized retail investors will have less and less living space in the stock market in the future.

The author believes that it may be appropriate to use "abnormal development" to describe the current development of China's stock market.