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    It Is Imminent To Launch A Spectacle Problem In The Stock Market.

    2016/2/27 14:05:00 26

    Stock MarketA ShareMarket Quotation

    The phenomenon of "1000 stock down" is frequently staged, which has more or less connection with its earlier deformity development.

    Therefore, for the new chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, Liu Shiyu, how to change the road of abnormal development of China's stock market is an urgent problem to be solved.

    Since last June, China's stock market has experienced nearly 20 "1000 stock limit down" phenomenon, and this slump frequency can also be regarded as the world wonder.

    However, over the past 8 months, the stock market has seen a sharp rise and fall, and more points of view are closely related to the highly speculative atmosphere of the Chinese stock market.

    There is no denying that the proportion of institutional investors is low, and small and medium-sized retail investors have become the dominant force in the market. This is an important reason for the long-term high speculative market.

    Looking at the mature markets abroad, the proportion of institutional investors is basically maintained at a high level.

    Among them, the proportion of institutional investors in our Hong Kong stock market is basically between 60 and 65%. As for the major European and American markets with a longer history, their institutional investors account for even more than 80%.

    The slow development of institutional investors is a true portrayal of the development of China's stock market.

    However, in recent years, management has also accelerated the pace of entering the market for social security funds, pension funds and even some foreign capital, thus gradually changing the current situation of low market share of institutional investors.

    However, at the present stage, we are faced with another situation, that is, institutions.

    Investor

    Speculation is even more intense among small and medium-sized retail investors.

    As Gao Xiqing, former vice chairman of the securities and Futures Commission, said, it can not be said that China's retail investors are not mature, but the stock market under the current management mode is like retail investors.

    Looking back at the stock market in 2014 and 2015, we can not get away from the fact that the market is basically in the pattern of "leveraging, losing and leveraging".

    However, for leveraged funds, because of its dual function of helping to rise and fall, it has indirectly played the role of helping the market in the last 8 months.

    Therefore, for the new chairman of the SFC, Liu Shiyu, how to change China?

    equity market

    The road of abnormal development is an urgent problem to be solved in its term of office.

    At the same time, we need to deal with the problem of the two distribution of stock wealth reasonably, and make the development of the market more in line with the vital interests of many parties.

    In fact, from the development of leveraged funds in recent two years, it is basically in the pattern of explosive development.

    However, from the analysis of specific data, the development speed of field financing is not the fastest, and the fastest development is the OTC capital allocation.

    Take the floor financing balance as an example, in July 20114, the scale of the business was less than 450 billion yuan, and reached 1 trillion in December 2014.

    By June 2015, the scale of the development reached a record high, reaching 2 trillion and 270 billion.

    As for OTC capital allocation, the most rapid development time was between 3 and May 2015, and its general leverage ratio was more than 3-5 times, even more than 10 times.

    At the same time, there was a unilateral irrational rise in the stock market over the same period. During the period, the potential size of the over-the-counter allocation has reached over 2 trillion, and its development speed is quite alarming.

    However, with a series of "

    Deleveraging

    After the "de bubble" process, the OTC capital allocation was basically cleaned up, and the scale of financing inside the field has shrunk by more than half.

    However, for this round of vigorous "deleveraging" and "de bubble" market, it has directly reduced the market value, and many middle-class wealth has also encountered a situation of big cleanup.

    As a result, the current situation of institutional investors' speculation is smaller than that of small and medium-sized retail investors. In the final analysis, they still have more or less connection with the defects of the market system.

    In the future, if our country can increase the proportion of institutional investors in the future, it can not change the characteristics of high speculation in the stock market in essence.

    On the contrary, as the proportion of institutional investors continues to rise, it means that the future survival of small and medium-sized retail investors in the stock market will be smaller and smaller.

    The author thinks that it may be appropriate to use the "abnormal development" to describe the current development of China's stock market.


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