Internet + Modern Agriculture Industry "Pain Point" Change "Highlights"

Many people think that 2016 should be

Over the past year, the topic of overcapacity has been talked about over the past few years.

Under the condition that China has not completely opened up the market for agricultural products, the domestic grain production should be the main guarantee to ensure domestic demand. If grain is continuously increased in the short run, there will be an excess.

In 1990s, there was a series of macro problems, such as high inventory costs, financial subsidies and bank pressure.

When we enter the new century, when we begin to stress the "three rural issues" and strengthen the input of agriculture, there will be twelve successive increases in grain. Will there be similar problems? At the same time, there is another saying that "three rural" branches are the biggest expenditure of state expenditure, and in 2014, they have exceeded 11300 billion yuan, and the growth rate in 2015 will be further increased, with an annual growth rate of 10%.

Objectively speaking, the state's input and subsidies to agriculture are very large.

However, we must see that the "floor price" (lowest price) of the domestic production cost of agricultural products is above the ceiling of the international price (the highest price), and this inverted structure is very difficult to sustain.

Therefore, due to the long-term oversupply of grain, there is no way to increase the stock. From 2016, subsidies will be reduced, including grain subsidies, fertilizer subsidies and pesticide subsidies.

This will lead to a chain reaction. The enthusiasm of food producers is hard to guarantee, and agricultural production enterprises will also be adversely affected.

Take

At present, the cotton market is still in a weak position, and it is difficult for the latter market to have a trend.

On the one hand, the supply of cotton has been declining year after year due to the reduction of cotton planting area.

On the other hand, supply is sufficient because of the continuous storage and storage of stocks, and the above height should not be overly optimistic. The cotton market needs to change its space with time.

Adequate supply of potential national reserves

In 2014/2015, the total supply of cotton in China was about 20 million 800 thousand tons, and consumption was about 7 million 200 thousand tons. The supply exceeded demand, and the stock continued to accumulate to 14 million 800 thousand tons.

In 2015, the supply declined to 20 million 100 thousand tons due to the decline in production, and the demand dropped to 7 million 130 thousand tons, and the stock dropped to 14 million 170 thousand tons, but it remained at a high level.

Among them, supply includes state-owned cotton, new cotton, imported cotton, and carry over stock in the hands of enterprises.

By the end of 2015, the stock of the country's cotton is still around 10 million 150 thousand tons, which can be said to be a half of the supply. This part is actually a free circulation in the market, and the relevant departments are needed to form an effective supply, so we define it as a potential pressure.

The impact of cotton yarn imports is still on the way.

The impact of imported cotton decreased significantly in 2015, but imported yarn still suppressed domestic cotton market.

With the widening of the internal and external spreads, international cotton prices are no longer dominant, and 1% tariff imports still have advantages, but the quota is limited.

Therefore, the number of cotton imports has been shrinking in 2015, and the amount of cotton imports in the first 10 months is only 1 million 200 thousand tons, far below the 2 million 80 thousand tons level in the same period in 2014.

In 2016, China adopted strict control measures on cotton imports. The import quota of cotton within the tariff remained the minimum level of 894 thousand tons stipulated by WTO, and cotton imports had little impact on the domestic market.

The cost of planting cotton is supported at the bottom, but because of the potential sale and weak demand of cotton, the uplink of cotton prices still seems to be incapable of falling into a dilemma, and the volume and position of the cotton prices are sluggish.

To sum up, cotton industry and large-scale agriculture are in a certain disadvantage. At present, there are still many problems in China's agricultural production, such as lack of advanced cultivation and purchase and sale experience, poor ability to resist market risks, and difficult pformation and development of agriculture.

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The government's work report has proposed that this year will actively develop "Internet + modern agriculture" and plug in the wings of "Internet +", and the difficulties in the pformation of many agricultural development modes will be solved. Intensive, efficient, green and sustainable modern agriculture is just around the corner.