China'S Exports Are Expected To Gradually Stabilize In The Two Quarter.

Statistics released by the General Administration of Customs on 13 may show that the total value of imports and exports of goods trade in China in the first quarter was 5 trillion and 200 billion yuan, down 5.9% from the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 3 trillion yuan, down 4.2%; imports 2 trillion and 200 billion yuan, down 8.2%; trade surplus of 810 billion 200 million yuan, 8.5% expansion.

In the month of March, China

Total value of 1 trillion and 910 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports of 1 trillion and 50 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7%, reverses the previous negative growth trend; imports 855 billion 500 million yuan, a decrease of 1.7%, a marked narrowing of the decline.

Huang Songping said that exports increased substantially in March, on the one hand because of the low base in March last year.

Last year's Spring Festival holiday was in mid and late 2. In the 15th day of the first month of the Chinese lunar calendar and March 5th, many enterprises began to start after that. In the middle and February of this Spring Festival, production and trading activities in March basically returned to normal.

On the other hand,

Good export is also an important reason for improving exports.

Xu Gao, chief economist of Everbright Securities, analyzed that last year's Spring Festival was late, forming a low base factor, which is the main reason for the recovery of exports in March this year.

From the data point of view, the growth rate of exports increased from 48.1% in February to -15.1% in March last year, which is the key to the sharp rise in export growth in March this year.

Guan Qingyou, executive director of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, believes that in addition to the low base effect,

Recovery is also an important reason, especially in the US and Europe, which has led to the demand for Chinese goods.

The "one belt and one way" big project order is also conducive to export.

Despite a year-on-year growth in exports in March, imports and exports continued to decline year-on-year in the first quarter.

According to customs data, from the monthly situation, the adjustment of seasonal adjustment method to eliminate the long holidays in Spring Festival decreased by 6.7%, 2.9% and 3.3% respectively in January, February and March.

However, the seasonally adjusted exports showed a steady monthly trend. In January, February and March, they fell by 4.2%, 0.8% and 0.9% respectively.

Export warming has also been confirmed from the foreign trade pilot index.

According to a survey released by the customs, China's foreign trade export index in March was 31.6, up 0.3 from the previous month.

Huang Songping said this shows that China's exports are expected to gradually stabilize in the two quarter.

In addition, according to the Internet survey, China's export managers index, new export orders index and confidence index of managers in March all rebounded.

Huang Songping, spokesman for the General Administration of customs, said that on the whole, imports and exports continued to decline in the first quarter, but the seasonally adjusted exports showed a steady trend.

In the low base and favorable policy environment, exports rebounded sharply in March.

In March, China's foreign trade export index showed that China's exports will gradually stabilize in the two quarter.

Analysts believe that from the domestic and international situation, the future foreign trade is still facing greater pressure, and the recovery of exports is still a long way to go.