How Is The Domestic Cotton Supply Situation?

In 2016, domestic cotton planting area decreased again. At present, cotton sales in 2015 are nearly completed, and reserve cotton has become the main channel for supply of cotton market.

The planting area in the mainland has been greatly reduced.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system released in June, "cotton sown area survey report" showed that in 2016, the total sown area of cotton in China was 43 million 851 thousand mu, a decrease of 7 million 337 thousand mu compared with that of March, a decrease of 14.3%, which was 1.7% lower than that of March.

Among them, the sowing area of cotton in the the Yellow River River Basin was 8 million 328 thousand mu, a decrease of 24.7% over the same period last year, 3.8% lower than that in March, and the actual sowing area of the Yangtze River Basin was 5 million 747 thousand mu, down 27.7% from the same period last year, which was 12.1% lower than that in March. The northwest inner cotton sowing area was 29 million 281 thousand mu, a decrease of 7% over the same period last year, which was 1.4% more than that in March.

The main reason for the sharp reduction in cotton planting area in the mainland is that cotton yields can not compete with other crops.

Reserve cotton out of stock auction is active.

at present

Auction has become the main channel for supply of cotton market, and enterprises are actively bidding.

Since the warehousing of cotton reserves has been sold out, almost all pactions have been completed, and the base price has increased steadily.

As of June 17th, the accumulative total of 872 thousand tons of cotton reserves was planned for 2015/2016, and 847 thousand and 700 tons of accumulated warehouses were sold, including 551 thousand and 600 tons of domestic cotton and 296 thousand and 100 tons of imported cotton. The average length of pactions was 28.3mm, and the average price was 12175 yuan / ton.

The selling price in the last week is 12325 yuan / ton, which has risen nearly 1000 yuan / ton compared with the initial auction price.

Due to the relative concentration of storage cotton outlets

The capacity of public inspection is limited, the speed of cotton outgoing is slow, and the purchase of outer cotton is mostly used as a short-term "pition" to alleviate the urgent demand for cotton.

At present, the US cotton export has completed the USDA forecast, the spot quantity is small, and the middle and late stage flower is the main product, the quality and the grade have obvious glide. In 2016, the Australian cotton sale is stable, the performance price ratio is higher, the 2012 national storage cotton imported from the round has little influence on the 2016 cotton sales in the year.

Nearly all the new cotton is sold out.

The spot market has few new cotton stocks.

And traders are currently bidding for cotton reserves.

The purchase and sale data of the national cotton market monitoring system show that as of June 17, 2016, the new cotton harvest has ended; the national sales rate is 98.2%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with the mainland selling rate of 94.4%, and the sale in Xinjiang has ended.

The national processing rate was 99.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points over the same period, of which the processing rate in Xinjiang was 99.7%, and the national sales rate was 97.9%, an increase of 21.6 percentage points over the same period, of which the sales rate in Xinjiang was 98.6%.

According to the estimated 5 million 216 thousand tons of cotton production in China (the national cotton market monitoring system forecast in November 2015), as of June 17th, the total processing of lint 5 million 65 thousand tons in the whole country decreased by 1 million 178 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, of which 3 million 645 thousand tons of lint were processed in Xinjiang, and 5 million 3 thousand tons of cotton lint were sold, an increase of 100 thousand tons compared with the same period last year, of which Xinjiang sold 3 million 607 thousand tons of lint cotton.