Textile And Clothing: Performance Is Mediocre, Stick To The Value.

Basic data points: May 2016 above quota

Retail sales increased by 5.9%, jewelry retail sales decreased by 2%, and May

And clothing exports grew +1.6%/-0.3% over the same period, and the retail sales of hundreds of large enterprises decreased by 7.2%. As of the end of June, domestic and foreign gold prices rose by +9.6%/+8.9% respectively, and the price of internal and external cotton rose by +3.7%/+3.4% respectively, and the difference between inside and outside cotton prices rose to 568 yuan / ton.

Key companies tracking: cross border pass Q2 revenue is expected to be comparable to Q1, the revenue side increased by 100%+ this year; the new business of modern Boulevard has contributed little to temporary revenue; category is still dominated by cosmetics, with a slight loss of revenue in the first half of the year; fuanna expects a slight increase in revenue in the first half of the year, and profit 10%+;

Revenue is expected to increase by more than 10% in the first half of the year, and profits are flat in the first quarter. Semir apparel expects revenue and profit growth to remain Q1 level in the first half of this year.

Hong Kong stock and overseas companies: as of February 29, 2016, BELLE's international revenues and net profit have changed by +2%/-38.4% respectively.

By the end of March 31, 2016, Bosideng's revenue and net profit had changed by -8%/+112.5% respectively, while the profit and net profit of the company had changed by -11.9%/-40.7% respectively, and the mutual revenue and net profit had changed by +0.3%/+4.72% respectively.

NIKEQ4 net profit fell 2.2% in the same period, net profit increased by 14.9% in the 2016 fiscal year, COACHQ1's performance increased, sales increased by 11%, PVH's annual net profit increased 20%, BBBYQ1 performance was lower than expected, N Brown GroupQ1 revenue fell 0.2%, H&MQ2 net profit fell 21.5%, Wei group sold part of its business, TiffanyQ1 profit fell 16.7%, Alibaba accepted hammer technology equity pledge, Jingdong bought 1 shop.

Trend review: since 2016, the industry index has risen and fallen in the rankings (the loss of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300), textile production is better than clothing home textiles; 6 months later, the industry index fell and ranked behind (running Shanghai and Shenzhen 300), and textile production performed better than clothing home textiles.

6 months after the first half of the month, A shares rose most of the brands, and the brand was created by fashion / cross border / vnna.

H-share brand 6 half or half of the month's rise and fall (Baosheng / ciltier led, Li Bang / Chinese clothing leading), manufacturing increased more (Wei Qiao / Yuyuan / mutual / Rainbow rise, nine Xing / Shen Zhou fall).

Investment strategy: since the beginning of this year, the plate has mainly followed the big market operation. In the first half of this year, the market index fell 17.14% in the beginning of this year. During the period, the industry index of the wanwanfang textile industry dropped by 19.75%. Therefore, we believe that it is difficult for the industry to get out of the independent market when the industry fundamentals are not yet turning upward. With the expectation of the Chinese newspaper gradually clearer, the quality stocks with solid fundamentals are mainly focused on defensive layout.

1, brand industry: due to the fact that the current consumption climate is not high and the weather is affected by 5 and June, it is expected that the performance of listed companies is basically the same as that of a quarterly report.

According to our preliminary calculations, it is expected that most Brand Company's revenue growth interval will be 0-10% in the first half of the year. The profit performance will be thickened and differentiated by some companies.

Therefore, in line with the expectations of the China Daily, we still suggest that we should pay attention to Semir clothing, cross border, Hai Lan's home and Antarctica (suspension).

2, textile manufacturing: under the background of the reform of supply measurement, the leading enterprises of textile manufacturing industry will further benefit from the upgrading of the industry concentration. The leading enterprises of cotton enterprises and printing and dyeing enterprises -1.html "> printing and dyeing enterprises are benefiting from this, and the US dollar index has continued to rise in recent years. With the beginning of the end of May, the quality of state-owned cotton stores that we were worried about before, and the phenomenon that the reserves were not as good as expected, and the short-term price increase is expected. Therefore, due to the common influence of the above reasons, we are expected to underestimate the resilience of the leading cotton enterprises such as Huafu, Lu Tai and Bailong in the near future.

However, because of the unknown cotton reserves' follow-up attitude towards throwing stocks, cotton prices and other suggestions were clear after the government's attitude was clear, cotton prices fluctuated after relative stabilization.

This period: Semir clothing, cross border, Huafu color spinning, Hai Lan home, Antarctica business (suspension).

Risk warning: systemic risk.