The Future Development Trend Of Viscose Short Fiber Market In The First Half Of The Year

As last year's chemical fiber

Under the background of the overall downward price, viscose staple fibers, which are rising in price, are still doing well in the first half of this year.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of viscose staple fiber has been showing an upward trend of oscillation, and sales volume has increased by 5%~8% compared with the same period last year.

For the second half of this year, viscose staple fiber market, insiders said, for the following reasons, viscose staple fiber market in the second half or will remain optimistic.

First of all, under the influence of the G20 summit in Hangzhou,

The downtime or limited production of enterprises will become a short-term catalyst for the rising price of viscose. Secondly, ~10 month will be the peak season for the sales of core spun yarn in August, which will promote the increase of viscose staple fiber in the north of Jiangsu Province, and at the same time, the RMB devaluation anticipation will also promote the export and downstream of viscose staple fiber.

Demand has increased significantly.

The first half of the market overall oscillation upward

In the first half of the year, the market of viscose staple fiber was better, and the overall price showed an upward trend of oscillation.

In January, viscose staple prices overall showed a downward trend.

At the beginning of the month, viscose manufacturers introduced Spring Festival maintenance plan, and viscose products were mostly shipped at low prices.

For example, the price of viscose staple 1.5D products will drop to 12450 yuan / ton after the price falls.

At the end of the month, the Spring Festival holidays approached, and the turnover weakened.

In February ~3, the price of viscose staple fiber picked up again, and the viscose staple fiber market was buoyant, and the price of products continued to rise.

At the beginning of February, the price of viscose staple fiber 1.5D products was 12450 yuan / ton, and rose to 13680 yuan / ton at the end of 3, with a total increase of 10.95%.

Then, because of the impact of the price of cotton futures, the enthusiasm of the downstream stocks was slightly suppressed, and the atmosphere of the new single trading market tended to be rational.

Viscose staple market was weak in April.

In the first half of the month, the viscose staple fiber manufacturer made a small change in its product price by relying on the previous super order.

4 the price of viscose staple fiber began to fall down in the first half of the month, and the resistance of the previous high turnover increased. In the long time of low production and marketing, the stock of viscose staple fiber in enterprises was slightly stronger.

After mid April, the market prices of viscose staple fibers were more loose.

At the end of April ~5, the Jiujiang rayon viscose staple device was completely shut down and the market supply of viscose staple products was reduced.

May ~6 month, coincides with the viscose staple downstream enterprises in a centralized stocking period.

At the beginning of May, the market of viscose staple fiber was much higher than that of the viscose staple fiber, and the price of viscose staple fiber products increased gradually. The downstream gauze Market performance was light, and the enthusiasm of purchasing viscose staple fiber gradually cooled.

On the whole, the viscose staple market in May is getting warmer but with limited profits, so the price of viscose staple fiber in June is at the same time stable.

In July, the price of cotton futures rose strongly at the beginning of the month, and the Jiangsu Funing Ao Yang Technology Co. Ltd was torn by the influence of tornado. It coincided with the downstream manufacturers' centralized stocking period, and the market regained its upward trend.

Recently, the quotation of viscose staple fiber industry has increased again.

In July 12th, some of the high-end products of viscose staple were raised by 200 yuan / ton to 14600 yuan per ton after the 300 yuan / ton increase in the previous period. The mainstream manufacturers of viscose staple fiber also had 100 yuan / ton ~200 yuan / ton up to 14200 yuan / ton ~14300 yuan / ton, and most of the low and medium staple viscose staple prices were also raised to 14000 yuan / ton ~14100 yuan / ton.

Capacity or shortfall in the next two years

Viscose "leading" enterprises are also optimistic about the viscose market.

According to Sanyou chemical industry, the viscose industry has been adjusted for more than 4 years. By the end of 2015, the total capacity of the viscose staple fiber industry, including invalid production capacity, was about 3 million 600 thousand tons, but in fact less than 3 million 100 thousand tons, and the net increase of viscose staple fiber in the next two years is probably negative.

In the background of steady growth of downstream demand, the production of viscose staple fiber may even have some gaps by 2018.

Therefore, viscose staple fiber market is expected to continue upward, the company maintains good prospects for viscose staple industry.

China and Thailand also said they were optimistic about the development of viscose spinning business.

China and Thailand chemical said that the price of viscose staple fiber has bottomed up in 2015, and the viscose business in 2016 will maintain a high degree of visibility.

In 2015, Sino Thai chemical added viscose spinning business. From the first quarter of this year, the average selling price of chemical viscose staple fiber in China and Thailand increased slightly compared with the same period in 2015.

At present, China and Thailand chemistry has 360 thousand tons of viscose production capacity. In the future, viscose production capacity will increase to 400 thousand tons through technical pformation.

There are also enterprises that, after rapid expansion in the past few years, China's viscose staple fiber production capacity has entered a slow growth period.

Judging from the current profitability of the industry, the momentum of large-scale expansion of enterprises is not strong.

In the next two years, the growth rate of viscose staple fiber industry will increase by 7% and 5% respectively. The new production capacity will be put in order, and the annual demand of viscose staple fiber will increase by about 7%~8%. The new capacity can be successfully digested. Therefore, it is expected that the viscose staple fiber industry will continue to boom in the next two years.

Industry supply and demand pattern improved significantly

Since 2014, the viscose staple fiber industry has basically no new capacity to go into operation, and the industry start up rate has bottomed out and gradually picked up.

According to statistics, in 2015, the production of viscose staple fiber was 3 million 180 thousand tons, with an average operating rate of about 86%.

At present, the textile industry in the downstream is off season, but the price of viscose staple fiber is still relatively high, which is significantly higher than the price in the same period in 2014 and 2015, indicating that the supply and demand pattern of viscose staple fiber industry has improved significantly.

1~6 month, capacity, Xinjiang Tarim comprehensive agricultural development Limited by Share Ltd 50 thousand tons viscose staple production line in Xinjiang alar smoothly put into operation, the viscose staple fiber production capacity increased to 3 million 770 thousand tons.

According to statistics, the average operating rate of viscose staple fiber in the first half of this year is 90%, which is larger than that of 84.47% in the same period in 2015.

Viscose staple fiber export situation is also better.

According to statistics, the total export of viscose staple fiber was 18393 tons in May, an increase of 103.84% over the same period last year, up 27.24% from last month.

1~5 month, viscose staple fiber export volume reached 81 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 48% over the same period, the average export price reached 1729 US dollars / ton, an increase of 6.5% over the same period last year.

And for the next viscose fiber market, the industry is optimistic.

According to the industry, at present, the downstream enterprises of viscose staple are in the period of replenishment just now, with more centralized signing and viscose staple stocks at a low level.

With the date of the G20 meeting in Hangzhou, the viscose staple fiber production capacity, which accounts for about 5% of the 180 thousand tons of viscose staple device of the group, will be discontinued for more than 1 months, plus the 3 quarter is the peak demand for viscose staple fiber. Therefore, the price of viscose staple fiber is expected to continue to rise.

At the same time, because of the strong substitution of cotton and viscose, the high price correlation between them and the delayed delivery of cotton reserves, cotton prices have risen sharply in recent years, and also opened up the space for the price of viscose staple fiber.