The Characteristics Of The "Policy Market" In The Cotton Market Have Become Increasingly Evident.

Out of storage blocked superposition of less than expected reserves, eventually triggered.

The sale price and the cotton price both go up and down.

However, from last week, the turnover of cotton reserves began to improve, with a turnover of more than 30 thousand tons per day for a week.

The "policy market" has become more and more obvious.

Recently, the Henan Textile Industry Association issued a "letter of help" to the national development and Reform Commission, putting forward suggestions to increase the intensity of national cotton storage, and to investigate malicious speculation of reserve cotton enterprises.

Reporters noted that since last week, the national cotton reserves have returned to 30 thousand tons per day, a slight increase compared with the first half of July, and this trend is expected to continue. The 18 day cotton reserves plan is again over 30 thousand tons.

Perhaps by the national cotton store "heavy volume", yesterday's cotton fell slightly.

As of 18 days closing, zhengmian main force CF1701 received 15765 yuan / ton, down 0.97%.

However, from the perspective of futures trading positions, there is no sign of withdrawal.

Data show that, after 15 days to increase the number of more than 4736 hands, Huaxin Wanda futures seats 18 minus 4230 hand empty.

However, after continuous ups and down, the attitude of both sides began to be cautious. The total CF1701 position fell by 54 thousand.

The reason is not related to the turnover rate of cotton that is still high. After entering July, the turnover rate of cotton reserves is 100%, and the downstream demand has not yet been satisfied.

Due to the turnover of cotton throwing and storing, the cotton price fluctuated in a short time, which made the cotton market fall into the "policy market".

National storage cotton warehouse

For the downstream textile enterprises "no cotton spinning" dilemma, the industry blamed it on the storage of cotton storage links, and less than expected amount of dumping.

"Because of the need to carry out inspection for each package this year, the workload of the reserve cotton is huge, which slows down the speed of the public inspection. At the same time, the storage of cotton is out of stock, which also makes the warehouse storage income reduced.

Li Jifeng, Secretary General of Henan Textile Industry Association, told reporters in July 15th.

A state-owned cotton textile enterprise in Sichuan also pointed out in July 18th that when the reserve cotton was put into storage, it could reach 80 thousand tons a day, but now it can not reach 30 thousand tons.

Located in Anhui, Joyoung Logistics Co., Ltd. is one of the social storage warehouses of the central storage cotton plant. Currently, it has more than 60 thousand tons of reserve cotton stock.

According to the arrangement of China store cotton, Joyoung logistics will be responsible for 5000 tons of reserve cotton production this year.

"Now the warehousing of the warehouse has been completed, but more than 2000 tons have not yet been completed."

Liu Jianwei, head of the company's business, told reporters in July 18th that it was because the owner's bill of lading had not yet arrived, so cotton remained in the Treasury for the time being.

According to Liu Jianwei, from the auction to pay deposit, and then to the order, pick up goods and other links, it takes about twenty or thirty days to complete the process, and the speed of storing cotton can be imagined.

As to whether there is a deliberate delay, Liu Jianwei said, "the reduction of warehousing fee revenue is definitely inevitable. However, since the policy of filming has come down, it will not last long, and the impact of 5000 tons on our warehouses is limited."

Reporters learned that the annual storage cost of national cotton storage is 100 yuan / ton.

In other words, the annual revenue of Joyoung logistics will be reduced by 500 thousand yuan after the outturn.

Hebei Hengshui cotton and flax general company's situation is similar, although the public inspection has not yet ended, but the overall progress is relatively stable.

"The prescribed amount of work is 400 tons per day for public inspection. Since the beginning of May 3rd, the company has been following this amount."

Relevant person in charge of the company told reporters in July 18th.

Tianjin, who is directly under the central storage cotton store, told reporters in July 18th that "recently, the company has concentrated on dispatching some manpower. Compared with the earlier stage, the speed of the public inspection has been improved, and it will also open all the libraries that can be opened."

Further traced to the auction segment, after the cotton store single day turnover is more than 20 thousand tons.

According to statistics, from June 17th to July 5th, there were only 3 auction day cotton reserves over 30 thousand tons, and the remaining time remained at 20 thousand tons or lower.

Out of storage blocked and stacked reserves are not as good as expected, which eventually led to double uplink of reserve cotton sales price and cotton price.

However, from last week, the turnover of cotton reserves began to improve, with a turnover of more than 30 thousand tons per day for a week.

Behind toothpaste storage

According to the relevant arrangements for the national cotton reserve rotation issued this year, under normal circumstances, the number of daily sales of reserve cotton is not more than 50 thousand tons, and if the sale rate of cotton reserves is over three days a week or more than 70%, the number of sales will be increased appropriately.

However, in the actual dumping process, the sales volume is far below the stipulated 50 thousand tons, which has become the core logic of the current cotton price soaring.

Then the reserve is far below market expectations. Is there anything else?

In fact, during the period from 2011 to 2014, in order to stabilize cotton production, Guo Chu had stored and sold domestic cotton for three consecutive years, and the purchase price in 2011 was 19800 yuan / ton, and the purchase price in 2012 and 2013 was 20400 yuan / ton.

Up to May this year, the number of domestic cotton reserves was still as high as 11 million tons before the dumping. According to the estimated price of 20 thousand yuan per ton, the scale of domestic cotton reserves was as high as 220 billion yuan.

"Cotton storage time is too long, grades will also decline, so when it comes out of the warehouse, it will make a discount according to certain standards."

A Futures Company product developer in Zhengzhou told reporters in July 18th that at the same time plus capital costs and warehousing costs, the real cost of national cotton reserves is much higher than 20 thousand yuan.

However, since February 2011, domestic cotton prices have fallen for 5 consecutive years, and cotton prices have dropped from 9890 yuan / ton to 34870 yuan / ton at the highest time. The financial funds used for cotton storage and storage have shrunk dramatically, and the rise in cotton prices is undoubtedly conducive to reducing the loss of financial funds.

Since 2014, the state has abandoned the temporary cotton purchase and storage policy, instead of directly subsidized farmers.

The key problem is that the subsidy policy of Xinjiang and the real estate area is inconsistent.

"The highest subsidy of 2000 yuan per ton of mainland cotton, but the new frontier cotton subsidies have not set the upper limit, so also the mainland cotton farmers will be shipped to Xinjiang to sell cotton," Li Jifeng said.

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Under the above background, the enthusiasm of cotton growers in the mainland has been severely frustrated, and the planting area has been reduced for three consecutive years.

Taking 2015 as an example, the total output of cotton in the whole year was 5 million 605 thousand tons, down 9.3% from 2014.

The situation has not improved this year, and the sowing area of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River in the main cotton producing areas of the mainland has been reduced again.

The fundamental reason is that cotton prices continue downward, resulting in a decline in cotton farmers' income.

According to this trend, cotton also has the potential to become the second soybean, which is highly dependent on foreign imports, and cotton is also an important strategic material.

The most direct and effective way to solve these problems is to increase cotton prices, so as to enhance the enthusiasm of cotton growers.

"The profit margin of the textile industry is very low, generally only a few points, mainly rely on scale to win."

A Chengdu chemical fiber industry personage told reporters in July 15th, because foreign cotton yarn prices lower than domestic, this makes domestic textile exports in recent years under pressure.

At the same time, China is in the stage of industrial upgrading, and it does not rule out "abandoning and protecting cars".

This is not without precedent. During the period when cotton prices rose in 2009, the NDRC had conveyed the idea of "protecting cotton farmers" and "protecting textile enterprises".

"Traders were banned from participating in the auction of national cotton reserves, but now the restrictions are lifted. What is the purpose of putting traders in?"

Above chemical fiber personage thinks.