The Unstable Trend Of The Cotton Market Is Good

First half year

The whole is broken first.

Before February, the news of dumping and storage continued, and before the official announcement of the dumping notice, the market was shrouded in suspicion. In the state treasury, the cotton market made it difficult for the whole market to raise interest in singing. The cotton processing enterprises were selling off due to the pressure of loan repayment, while the textile enterprises generally saw the lack of enthusiasm for the replenishment of the market, showing a loose trend in the supply and demand stage, and the market went down smoothly. At the end of February, it fell below the threshold of 10000 yuan.

So far, the futures discount has reached 1500 yuan / ton, and the funds continue to be short. Enthusiasm has not been enough to compensate for the high sentiment, and the cotton market has begun to slow down.

In the process of price downward, the efficiency of textile enterprises begins to recover, and the demand for replenishment is increasing.

The balance between market and trade is changing. The situation of tight supply and demand before storage is becoming more and more obvious. After finishing the market for 2 months, the market is able to break through the upward trend and rapidly enlarge its shape.

Even after the start of the May National Reserve sale, the market did not bring any effective pressure to the market. Low supply and high turnover still showed a tight supply and demand situation, and cotton continued to attack.

The increase in the 2 quarter alone was as high as 44%.

The general trend is to establish a good pattern.

Gradually shrinking in China

In the background of the gap, the selling power of the State Reserve is not big, but it has positive feedback function in the period of no longer green. It may impose certain restrictions on the global market through the reduction of external demand, but it does not overlook the negative impact. Because besides China, the demand of Southeast Asian countries is also growing to restore the global cotton structure.

From the data of supply and demand, if China's state reserve stocks are eliminated, the global cotton inventory consumption ratio representing supply and demand level is only 51.7%, which is the lowest level since 2012.

At this stage, attention should be paid to the changes in the age of new cotton and the change of new cotton listing.

8, in September, the new cotton market at home and abroad was out of stock before the listing period. The supply and demand were tight, and prices were easy to rise and fall to maintain a strong strength unless the domestic reserves increased significantly or delayed the dumping and storage, and the pressure was released from inside to outside.

With the coming of August, as the new listing is approaching, the demand for cotton will continue to rise when the cotton planting price of some other main producing countries has been restored, and the demand for cotton spinning enterprises will be insufficient if there is a large area of losses.

Based on the analysis, it is considered that the overall trend will be better and there will be adjustments during the period, while the adjustment will be a long-term opportunity.

In terms of value preservation, futures risk-free and risk-free positive forward arbitrage already has profit margins. Coupled with an analysis of the subsequent market, there should be a callback expectation after high inflation. Therefore, institutional investors with supply can consider selling insurance to gain profits.

And after the new cotton listed pressure response, enterprises can bargain to consider the intervention of buying insurance.

Arbitrage, taking into account the internal and external differentiation of the new work, the expected growth of other main producing countries is still large, and domestic shrinkage is still in progress. Therefore, arbitrage operations can be considered in the contract of buying and selling in the far month contract. Besides, we can consider the operation of selling far and near, considering that the impact of the subsequent listing will probably be weak in recent months, and the expectation of demand in the far months may be relatively preferred.

At the height of the national strategic reserve, any commodity needs to use taxpayer's hard-earned money.

The starting point of reserve policy is "prepare for war, prepare for famine, and serve the people".

My personal understanding is:

1) prepare for war: cope with sudden increase in demand, such as war, resulting in a sharp increase in strategic material consumption;

2) preparedness: dealing with a sudden shortage of supply, such as natural disasters, resulting in a reduction in cotton production;

3) for the people: the state reserves the policy of using public resources to pay for taxpayers. The beneficiaries should be the most popular people, not businessmen or interest groups.

But now, what is the status quo? We all know what to say.

This reserve cotton outturn is obviously not from the perspective of saving the textile industry. At present, the textile enterprises are in a very vulnerable position, and they are "pinched around the neck to feed". The most obedient children in the past are almost unable to bear it, so there are several joint enterprises affiliated to the cotton spinning and weaving industry association of several major textile provinces to bring up the "letter" incident of the relevant departments of the State Council.

The parties concerned allowed the "cotton cattle" to take part in the auction, and the national policy of "preparing for war, preparing for the famine and serving the people" became a business of "preparing for war, preparing for the famine, and for the renminbi", which had to be said to be a major flaw in policy implementation.

By the way, tell us a real joke: do we all recently talk about the management of the disease, and say that in March, the dumping was postponed to May, resulting in man-made "barrier lake".

But interestingly, did you notice that the May 3rd Gregorian calendar is exactly twenty-seven in March of the lunar calendar, so that it is not wrong to throw the store in March.

So I said that in the policy market, the analysis of fundamentals and technical experts failed.

On the rivers and lakes, the boss's "drums" are the "drums" in the game.

But if you want to guess the top management's mind, this is a world-class problem. Anyone who uses FBI to read mind or to hire a Harvard graduate is no one to guess. The odds of 50/50 can not be reached: throw the storage date on the Gregorian calendar in March, or in the lunar calendar in March, or in the lunar calendar in March, or in the March of the lunar calendar?