The Imbalance Between Supply And Demand Has Led To A Rapid Rise In The Cotton Market This Year.

And so on, put the cotton reserve on sale, but met the new rules of public inspection. According to the announcement issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance in April this year, the cotton reserve issued by the China Fiber Inspection Bureau organized a comprehensive notarization test on quality and weight. "The proportion of public inspection has increased from 30% to 100%, and the volume of public inspection has not been up." Huang Shanghai said. Public inspection is not a key reason for less cotton reserves.

Huang Shanghai said, "I think this is a very good policy, but I just said there are some problems in this year's environment." In addition, the enthusiasm of traders to participate in the national cotton auction is very high this year, and also helped to raise cotton prices. Data show that the cotton produced by traders has accounted for more than 35% of cotton.

Huang Shanghai, a researcher at the Yangtze futures agricultural product, said that in 2015/2016, cotton production in the country had been significantly reduced. "On the one hand, the planting area has been reduced. On the other hand, the weather has resulted in a decline in yield per mu and a drop of about 1 million tons." At the same time, he said that in recent one or two years, domestic cotton prices have dropped, and they have gradually been in line with foreign cotton prices. The competitiveness of domestic textile enterprises has been improved, and the demand for cotton has also been increased.

Above Textile industry People told reporters that at the beginning of this year, textile enterprises did not want to increase their inventories. "Because I heard that they had to store them, the price of storage was relatively low at the beginning." "This year, the state has restricted imports, and it is supposed to make up for the market demand by throwing and storing up. But it was postponed to May in March because of various reasons. These two months have exhausted cotton in the spot market." Huang shang hai Think.

In April this year, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice, and decided to gradually digest the state reserve cotton inventory from this year. Under normal circumstances, the number of daily reserve cotton sales is not more than 50 thousand tons. For a period of time market price There has been a noticeable rapid increase. The sale rate of reserve cotton has been over three days or more than 70% a week, and the sales volume will be increased appropriately. In addition, it is stipulated that the reserve cotton rotation will continue from May 3rd to August 31st. In principle, the number of daily sales will not exceed 30 thousand tons, and the total output will not exceed 2 million tons.

Statistics found that as of 22 days, all trading days in July, the turnover rate was 100%, the number of listed sales has been maintained at 30 thousand tons, but in July 22nd returned to 25 thousand tons. In fact, since May 3rd, the volume of cotton reserves has been increased by more than 70% every day, but the state has not increased its output accordingly. Huang Shanghai believes that "throwing reserves from 30 thousand tons to 50 thousand tons, due to the fact that the speed of public inspection can not keep up, there is a real bottleneck. The established policy is now at the end of August, but can be thrown in September and October. As long as the market is in short supply, it can be thrown away. I think this policy can be achieved, and there is no difficulty in terms of execution.

Textile enterprises collectively put forward suggestions that under the condition of less than 50 thousand tons of daily delivery, the amount of input can be increased through other schemes. For example, "cotton and untested cotton are put in at the same time, and auction separately" and "2011 batches of cotton in Xinjiang in the year of 2011 and 2012 in batches should be carried out by random sampling." In addition, some textile enterprises suggest continuing to put in reserve cotton in September and October. And for traders' hoarding behavior, enterprises also hope to have targeted measures. Huang Shanghai said in this analysis, "traders hoarding cotton may wait until September and October to sell again. If the stock is not listed, if the new cotton is not listed, the market will be out of date. At that time, the price may be higher."