ICAC August Monthly Report: Global Inventories Fell Sharply

According to international

According to the August forecast issued by the Advisory Committee (ICAC), the international cotton price jumped to more than 80 cents in the second half of 2016, and the annual average price was 70 cents in 2016.

Five major cotton production decline and cotton demand exceeds expectations, resulting in 2015/16 Global

Down to 19 million 700 thousand tons, down 12% compared to the same period last year.

Outside China, stocks were 8 million 400 thousand tons, down 9% from the same period last year, the lowest since 2010/11 (8 million 300 thousand tons).

In addition, China's cotton stocks declined to 11 million 300 thousand tons due to the strong domestic demand, down 12% from the same period last year.

China since May

The demand for reserve cotton continued to grow, and the average daily turnover was 26 thousand tons. Even if the starting price rose from the initial 12000 to 14000, the total turnover rate remained close to 100%.

By the end of July, the total number of cotton reserves has exceeded 1 million 600 thousand tons, and the stock of cotton reserves is expected to drop to 9 million 400 thousand tons.

In 2015/16, cotton production in China was 4 million 800 thousand tons, down 26% from the same period last year, and cotton consumption was 7 million 300 thousand tons, a decrease of 2% over the same period last year. The gap between supply and demand was 2 million 500 thousand tons. Cotton imports in the whole year were 2 940 thousand tons, a decrease of 48% over the same period last year, and the reserve cotton will meet the market demand.

In 2015/16, global cotton consumption is expected to be 23 million 900 thousand tons, down 1% from the same period last year, but the global output is 21 million 300 thousand tons, a decrease of 18% compared with the same period last year, resulting in a decrease in end inventory.

In the five cotton producing countries, India's output was 5 million 700 thousand tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, China's output of 4 million 800 thousand tons, a decrease of 26%, the US output of 2 million 800 thousand tons, a reduction of 21%, 1 million 500 thousand tons of Pakistan, 34% reduction, and Brazil's output of 1 million 400 thousand tons, reducing 11%.

In 2016/17, the global cotton planting area is estimated to be 30 million 700 thousand hectares, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. The output per unit area is estimated at 49.7 kg / mu, an increase of 7% over the same period last year, and the global output is expected to be 22 million 900 thousand tons, up 8% over the same period last year.

The increase in India, the United States, Pakistan and Brazil will offset the decrease in China's production.

The reason for the increase in global production is the increase in cotton prices during the planting season and the weather in cotton producing countries.

India's output is expected to grow at 6 million 200 thousand tons, up by 8% over the same period last year, and its output per unit is expected to be 34.5 kg / mu, up 7% over the same period last year.

The US output is estimated to be 3 million 600 thousand tons, up 10% over the same period last year, and the average yield per unit area is expected to be 61.9 kg / mu, up 8% over the same period last year.

China's cotton planting area is 43 million 500 thousand mu, which has been reduced by 7% compared to the same period. However, due to the high per unit output of Xinjiang, the average yield will reach 108.2 kg / mu, an increase of 5% compared with the same period last year, and the total output of cotton is expected to be 4 million 700 thousand tons, with a reduction of 3%.

Pakistan's output was 1 million 800 thousand tons, an increase of 20% over the same period, and its output per unit was estimated at 44.6 kg / mu, up 27% over the same period last year.

Although global production is expected to increase in 2016/17, consumption is still stable at 23 million 900 thousand tons, and consumption in China is expected to decrease by 3% to 7 million 100 thousand tons, due to rising cotton prices, low chemical fiber prices and limited imports.

However, consumption in India and Pakistan is expected to moderate recovery, reaching 5 million 300 thousand tons and 2 million 200 thousand tons respectively, an increase of 2% and 1%.

Turkey consumption is expected to be 1 million 400 thousand tons, down 1% from the same period last year.

In 2016/17, imports of cotton worldwide are estimated to be 7 million 500 thousand tonnes, up 4% over the same period.

In addition, China's imports will increase for the first time in five years, reaching 987 thousand tons, up 5% over the past 2016/17 years.

The import volume of Vietnam and Bangladesh is expected to reach 1 million 260 thousand tons and 1 million 210 thousand tons respectively, up 19% and 18% compared to the same period last year.