August Cotton Market Concussion Is The Main Keynote

At present, the domestic cotton market is obviously a "policy market".

Because few stocks have lost the right to speak, the new flower listing can not solve the problem of "near thirst" for a long time because of the lack of attention.

"Selling" led the cotton market trend in such a predicament.

What is the future of futures?

The end of speculation

After the sale of the information was confirmed, the futures lint changed the long and weak pattern, and it rose. The zhengmian 1609 contract has been on the rise since April 11th, the highest level to 10790 yuan / ton. After that, it rose to a higher level and the concussion rose. In July 18th, it rushed to the annual high level of 15780 yuan / ton line, and the highest price rose to 4990 yuan / ton line, which greatly encouraged market confidence.

Since May 3rd, the price has been surged from 12428 yuan / ton to 16350 yuan / ton in July 28th, which has risen 3922 yuan / ton, and has reached a new high. The same spot cotton is also rising. Despite the shortage of seed cotton resources and the limited running rate of the cotton mill, the price of lint rose from 10500-11700 yuan / ton in early April to 14300-15000 yuan / ton at present, and the total price of cotton seed rose by 3300-3800 yuan / ton. The seed cotton price also rose from 2.70-2.8 yuan / Jin in early April to the current 3.80-4.00 yuan / Jin line, rising 1.10-1.20 yuan / Jin line. The surge in cotton futures is mainly due to the sell-off of State Cotton stores.

Prolonged sale time of State Cotton stores

With the development of throwing and storing time, the paction price of national storage cotton has been rising gradually. Textile enterprises are suffering from the linkage of futures and cash, and the cost of lint has been increasing. The textile enterprises have been losing money, and the national cotton store has not been able to arrive at the auction in time. A series of problems have troubled the textile enterprises. The supply and demand contradictions have accumulated to a certain extent. 150 domestic textile enterprises have jointly written to the Chinese cotton textile industry association to reflect the problems of the cotton reserves. After that, the relevant departments of the state have also listened to the suggestion of everyone, and have decided to extend the time of selling the national cotton storage to September 30th. The implementation of this proposal will play a certain role in stabilizing the domestic cotton prices which are relatively overheated at present, and futures have correspondingly adjusted.

Falling rate of State Cotton stores

When the cotton sale time was prolonged, the futures took the lead, and in July 28th, the Zheng cotton 1609 contract fell 690 yuan / ton, 29 days plunged 750 yuan / ton, although there were signs of stopping in August 1st, it was still in a weak callback pattern. Up to now, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton has been priced at two weeks low, and the lowest price is 14360 yuan / ton.

Futures fell back to demand for their own technology, while the extension of the time of national cotton sale played a leading role.

It is reported that in August 1st, 30018.539 tons of reserve cotton were delivered, and the actual turnover was 26370.518 tons, with a turnover rate of 87.85%. The average price was 13988 yuan / ton, the average price of the last day was 13937 yuan / ton, the highest price was 15240 yuan / ton on that day, and the lowest price was 12880 yuan / ton.

As of August 2nd, the cumulative turnover of cotton reserves totaled 1673981.09 tons, the total volume of imported cotton was 296306.06 tons, and the turnover rate was 98.16%. The total turnover of domestic cotton was 1377675.03 tons, and the turnover rate was 97.65%. It can be seen that the turnover rate of national cotton in August has been lower than the average turnover rate, showing a trend of gradual decline. However, because of the short-term market rigidity demand, the price adjustment rate is still not high.

To sum up, the trend of cotton futures in the future will still be dominated by the national cotton store sale. The short term callback pattern will continue, but when the cotton auction is rational and the average price remains relatively stable, cotton futures will stabilize and enter a phase of consolidation. Meanwhile, the trend of the US cotton will also have a direct impact on Zheng cotton. Therefore, considering the basic and technological trend of cotton both at home and abroad, I believe that the possibility of the decline of Zheng cotton in August is still large. Let's wait and see.