How Long Will Physical Businesses Be "Cold"?

The latest news has aroused a lot of attention: the landmark commercial body of the Huaihai East Road in Shanghai "

Due to the expiration of the lease, the site will face a new round of business adjustment.

Although this is normal.

Behavior, but to some extent, this news reflects the difficult pformation of old entity business.

Data show that the total retail sales of consumer goods in Shanghai reached 7.6% in the first half of this year, which is basically the same as the same period last year.

From the perspective of consumption structure, the retail sales of online stores increased by 17.8%, accounting for 11.4% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

This means that the growth rate of real business has slowed down compared with the same period last year.

Shanghai's physical business is the most developed in the country, but after years of downturn, the cold winter seems far from over.

A more interesting question is how long will physical businesses be "cold"?

The fundamental reason is the lack of new hot spots in consumption.

The popularity of business circles is a barometer of the real business.

Walking in North Sichuan Road, "no popularity" is the most intuitive feeling. In those days, all Shanghai except Nanjing road and Huaihailu Road, Sichuan Road prosperous name.

Now, this business street, besides the northernmost comprehensive commercial body, "dragon dream" is still more lively than that. It is deserted and lonely. Paris's spring, which is called "relatively good business", is also hard to cover the depression. The reporter noted that the treasure Daxiang youth supplies shop, which is not far from Paris, has also reduced the facade and sold a piece of gold to other shops.

Lonely is not only North Sichuan Road.

Xujiahui, Huaihai Road and other old business circles have been accused of popularity in the past two years, and many shops are still being updated.

The rise is considered to be the main reason for the cold business of real businesses. But in the view of Chao Gang Ling, a professor at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, the real business can not rise. The fundamental reason is the lack of new hot spots in consumption.

"Since the 80s of last century, China has experienced two rapid growth in consumption.

Once it was home heating, and reached the peak of consumption in 1985. It was the climax of consumption caused by large-scale urban pformation, and reached its peak in 1994.

At the peak of these two consumption trends, the national social zero year growth rate has jumped to 30%.

Many business circles in Shanghai rose under the impetus of these two consumption Spas: like the early 90s of last century, the opening of Metro and large department stores were completed successively, and Xujiahui soon became the landmark of Shanghai business circle. Facing the embarrassing adjustment, the Pacific department store of Huaihai East Road was also opened in the middle of 90s of last century. Wujiaochang business circle also began to demolish the capital in the late 90s of last century, laying the foundation for today's prosperity.

Chao Gang then predicted that the next round of high-speed consumption growth will appear after 2005, and cars and housing will become the two major consumer hot spots.

"In 2003, the popularity rate of vehicles in coastal areas has reached 3% to 5%. When the popularity rate reaches 8%, it means the popularity of private cars in families.

After 2000, Chinese residents began to buy large quantities of commercial housing, although commercial housing investment itself does not include consumption, but it can greatly stimulate consumption.

Automobile and housing did play a certain role in stimulating consumption in China after 2005, but it brought a series of negative effects, including the rapid growth of housing prices, urban traffic congestion and pollution caused by automobile exhaust emissions.

A series of policies to regulate housing prices and control private cars have been promulgated.

There is inherent logic in the cold business of real businesses: the two major consumer hot spots of automobiles and housing are not sustainable.

From this perspective, in the absence of new hot spots in real consumption, the overall recovery of real business can not be solved overnight.

"Uniqueness" can stimulate consumption desire.

Physical commerce is not without counterattack. Even if there is a lack of hot spots such as cars and housing, there are other consumer hot spots to look for.

In recent years, many people attribute the real business depression to the rise of Internet consumption.

Objectively speaking, there are such factors, but not all.

In fact, the growth rate of Internet consumption is also decreasing in recent years.

In 2008, China's online consumption growth rate was 128%, then decreased year by year, and dropped to 33% in 2015.

Many people in the industry say that the capacity of online shopping distribution is close to the peak. If the scale of online shopping expands further, it will be restricted by distribution capability. Besides, the high cost of logistics has begun to affect commodity prices, and the security problem of online shopping has not been well solved.

Such problems will affect the consumption experience.

Chao Gang believes that by 2020, the proportion of online shopping in China will not exceed 20% of retail business.

This also means that there is still room for development in real business.

"The key is that the real business should be able to tap new consumption hot spots and mobilize the residents' consumption potential."

Where is this new consumer hot spot? "For example, in recent years, the sea is very hot and the consumption demand for overseas residents is very strong.

But overseas consumption structure has undergone tremendous changes. Now many tourists buy and buy overseas, many of them are no longer luxuries, but necessities such as kitchen appliances, mother and baby products, health products and other consumer upgrading products.

However, many domestic businesses are unable to meet the needs of consumers.

For a single commercial body, it is necessary to have its own unique things to stimulate new consumption desire.

"First, resources are unique and have strong purchasing power. They can bring out goods resources that other families can't get, like many high-end supermarkets now doing well. Second, business models are innovating, many commercial bodies offer online fitting rooms and online makeup artists. Wherever they are, consumers can experience products and network orders; third, create a rich atmosphere of shopping malls, create more experiential consumption patterns, and so on.

Shanghai Academy of social sciences researchers have pointed out that many foreign commercial bodies, the overall popularity is good.

"The more popular entity businesses abroad are either highly acceptable brand focused commercial bodies, or commercial bodies with leisure, entertainment, catering and shopping functions. The better service and environment, the more popular the business is.

Generally speaking, there is still a shortage of such commercial bodies in China, even in Shanghai, where the business model is at the forefront.

The government also needs to push ahead.

In fact, in the first half of this year, many real businesses in Shanghai have entered a period of deep adjustment and pformation. Maybe some benefits have not yet appeared, but it may be the accumulation of kinetic energy for future development.

The Huaihailu Road Pacific store mentioned in the opening paragraph also has commercial updates on its original site.

It is said that the property owner Ruian group will recover the property itself and build the original site into an intelligent and experiential shopping center. The overall hardware will be restructured and adjusted, and more retail formats and consumer experience formats will be formed. It will form a linkage with Ruian's Xintiandi, lakeside road and other commercial bodies, as well as the K11 mall that has been very popular in recent years.

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Xujiahui business circle, which has been in business for more than 20 years, has started to "toss" since last year.

In the two phase of the Pacific Digital Plaza, during the demolition and reconstruction, we plan to build a small commercial body and no longer operate digital products. The Huashan road block of Xujiahui central phase 1 of Sun Hung Kai Property Investment and operation is in urgent need of construction and is expected to be completed in March next year.

In the future, Xujiahui business circle will no longer be dominated by simple commerce, but will pform itself into the core business area of international business and commerce.

In addition, the fifth corners of Wujiaochang business were complemented by the Hesheng International Plaza, which opened in the first half of this year.

This is the largest business scale of Wujiaochang business district and the largest volume of its business. The joint shopping mall is modeled on the overseas shopping mall mode, and the shopping mall atmosphere and experience are very good.

Just after the opening of business, popularity has been the best in Wujiaochang business circle.

It is a catfish in the commercial circle of Wujiaochang, which will trigger an upgrade of the whole business circle.

Chao Gang believes that Shanghai's single commercial body will definitely go through a round of big shuffling, but it will fail, but there will surely be a batch of new business entities that adapt to the current market and consumption trends.

The real business out of the trough is the spontaneous adjustment and pformation of the market, but it also requires the relevant government departments to further strengthen the infrastructure and the surrounding infrastructure.

For example, there are many residents in the vicinity of the Cao Jia Du commercial circle. There are very large consumption demands. But the overall construction of the Cao Jia Du commercial circle is slow, and there is not enough commercial volume to satisfy the consumption of the surrounding residents. The surrounding Cao Chai Du flower and bird market and Shanghai West cinema have not been well developed and utilized, and there has not been a good interaction with the emerging commercial bodies.

Cao Jia Du is located in the border area of Shanghai, Jingan, Putuo and Changning, and is not the focus of the three districts' respective construction and development, so the development of the three years is rather slow.