The Complexity Of Macroeconomic Regulation And Control Increases The Current A Share'S "No Worries".

The domestic macro-economy is stable. The structural adjustment of the property market is mainly structural. The volume policy is hard to tighten, and the impact on the A share is limited.

Devaluation pressures remain vigilant, and the global market is becoming extremely sensitive to marginal changes in liquidity.

On the whole, we still maintain the judgement of the structural market in the range of shocks. On the one hand, we should take performance as the king, looking for the high economic sub industries that are expected to continue to improve in the second half of 16 years. On the other hand, under the regulation and control of real estate, capital construction will continue to push the bottom economy, and recommend the leading industry of building, landscape, environmental protection, rail pit and other industries that will benefit from the steady growth of infrastructure and PPP.

Although the A share market closed in September, we do not think that A shares have any internal worries at present.

First, the macro economy is not as bad as expected. High frequency data show that the economy is expected to stabilise in the near future.

Secondly, although nearly 20 cities issued the property market regulation policy during the National Day holiday, the overall tone is still "one city and one strategy" and the housing prices of the early stage are rising rapidly. Under the background of going stock, the total monetary policy is difficult to tighten, and the impact on A shares is limited.

But overseas undercurrents are noteworthy.

First of all, during the National Day holiday, overseas turmoil continued, such as the British Prime Minister's decision to clear the euro start time point triggered sterling to depreciate again.

Secondly, although the US non farm data in September is not as good as expected, the market's interest rate hike in December is expected to rise to around 70%. In the future, the rise of the US dollar index, both expected by interest rate increases or risk factors, will bring devaluation pressure to the RMB.

In addition, it was caused by hawkish speeches in early September.

The crash or last week because Peng Bo reported that the ECB's possible reduction of market volatility brought by QE reflects the current market's sensitivity to the marginal change in liquidity, and the change in global easing expectations is noteworthy.

During the National Day holiday, overseas markets were also not calm.

1) the United Kingdom: the prime minister made clear that the euro withdrawal process was initiated before the end of March 17, and indicated that the protection of the financial industry would not be a priority task. The pound fell again in the week and accumulated a drop of over 4%.

2) Germany: due to a 14 billion huge ticket from the US Department of justice, the share price of Deutsche Bank has plummeted. Despite the series of self rescue measures and market rumors, the stock market has stabilized and rebounded, but the banking industry in Europe is still problematic.

3) the United States: Despite the fact that the US non farm figures in September were not as good as expected, the implied interest rate hike in December rose to about 70%. Whether the increase in interest rate or the risk of risk factors caused the rise in the US dollar will be brought to the RMB.

Pressure.

First of all, the macro economy is not as bad as expected, the overall margin is still stable, and the risk of stall is controllable.

In the high frequency data, electricity consumption, commodity prices and commercial housing volume all indicate that the macro-economy is expected to stabilize in the short term. The industrial added value in 7 and August also maintained at 6% level in the same month, and the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in 7 and August rose significantly.

Secondly, despite the fact that nearly 20 cities issued real estate control policies during the National Day holiday, it is difficult to tighten up the total volume policy in the background of stock removal, and monetary policy is still mainly stable.

In addition, if the financial work conference was held in the 4 quarter to reform the current regulatory system, in the future, with the combination of financial regulation and real estate regulation, if capital can be effectively eliminated, it will have a positive effect on the improvement of market risk preference.

Overseas undercurrents surged.

During the National Day holiday, the overseas market is also not calm. The rise of the British debt crisis has caused the pound to depreciate again. The deutsche bank crisis has not yet exposed the worries of the European banking industry. The market's expectation of raising interest rates for the Federal Reserve in December has risen to around 70%.

Despite the fact that the Central Bank of the world is still relaxed, the market has been showing a "panic". Whether it was a sharp fall in the US position in September 9th due to a hawk's stance, or last week's report of Peng Bo's report that the European Central Bank might reduce the size of the QE market caused fluctuations in the market, indicating that the market is extremely sensitive to the marginal change in liquidity expectations.

For A shares, whether the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to rise, the dollar index is rising or the US dollar index (Jo Trump comes to power) due to risk factors, the devaluation pressure facing the RMB once again and the resulting depreciation expectations are likely to suppress market risk preferences.

Therefore, we still maintain the judgement of the structure of the concussion market. We still recommend that we should take performance as the king, looking for the prosperous sub industries such as heavy trucks, some price rising chemicals and electronic components in the second half of the next 16 years. In addition, after the adjustment and control of real estate, the infrastructure investment will continue to push the bottom economy. Therefore, we will continue to recommend the industry leading to the construction, landscape, environmental protection, rail pit and other industries benefiting from the steady growth of infrastructure and PPP.