Splint Market Reproduction A Shares Amplitude Fell To A Historical Low

"Rebound in inflation, resistance and fall" has become the main feature of this week's market.

During the long holiday period, the external market generally rebounded, especially the Hong Kong stocks rose the best, from 23000 points to 24000 points. After that, the first trading day of A shares opened up, and the volume of Zhongyang shares was high.

The index continued to expand on Tuesday, with the Shenzhen Branch, the gem and the small and medium-sized boards all making up the gap in September 12th.

Slightly weaker, only a partial gap was added, and the market showed a general inflation pattern.

Market amplitude narrowing usually originates from the observation waiting period for policy, and the two amplitude of amplitude in June 2013 and October 2013 in October 2013 is narrowed, and it is also a calm period of macro level.

The expansion of the concussion zone needs to wait for external forces to emerge.

In 2013, after a narrow fluctuation in 5 months, the monthly shortage of money increased rapidly to 20% in June.

In October 2013, ~2014 experienced a narrow fluctuation in 9 months in June. In July 2014, market expectations for reform were strengthened, and the monthly amplitude increased to 8.3%.

Is there any reason to break such a splint Market? The answer is yes, that is the performance factor.

On Wednesday, the index began to enter the horizontal market, and the index of Shanghai stock index was only 12 points, and the innovation was low. It returned to the trend of shrinkage before the festival, and the stocks began to split up. On Thursday, the market continued this trend, and the whole day had 13 points.

As the Shanghai stock index has not been able to make up for the 9. 12 gap, the same deep market is also stalled. It is obvious that the amount of energy fails and the hot spot day trips are prominent. In addition, the external market has plunged repeatedly, and the Hong Kong stock has fallen back to 23000 points on Thursday, which makes it possible for the Hong Kong stock exchange to return to the market.

Again cautiously, Friday's index opened slightly after adjustment, showing the weakness after the failure.

The characteristic of recent market is "

"That is, shrinkage and low amplitude.

In the three quarter of 2016, the average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities was 499 billion 572 million yuan, less than the 521 billion 538 million yuan in the two quarter and 541 billion 176 million yuan in the first quarter.

Among them, the August 15th created a maximum value, the two cities totaled 751 billion 100 million yuan, and in September 30th reached the three quarter of the new volume of 298 billion 700 million yuan, the amount can be reduced by 60%; the first week after the national day, although the amount can be improved, but always in the 400 billion ~5000 billion yuan area, it will not stop, the distance before 700 billion ~8000 billion yuan is still a big gap, which shows that some funds return to the market after the festival, but most of them are still on the sidelines, and now the empty warehouse ratio is more than 55%.

Another feature of the "splint Market" is the narrowing of the amplitude.

In recent years, the amplitude of A shares has also created a new low. There are less than 0.5% trading days, of which only 0.39% in September 20th, and 0.38% in October 12th and 13th and 0.4% in the low amplitude trend.

From the single day amplitude of the Shanghai stock index, 70 trading days in the first three quarters of 2016 were less than 1% in the 184 trading days, of which 45 days came from the third quarter, and the market really entered the "loom" state.

Since 2005, the monthly mean amplitude of the Shanghai composite index is 12.7%, Zhou Zhenfu's historical average is 5.2%, and the monthly amplitude average of 5.7% since April 2016 has narrowed down, and its characteristics are more obvious in recent weeks.