Left Handed Profit, Right Hand Inventory, Do You Have New Phobia?

The thing is this: just after finishing the new product from the United States, B Jun who stayed up for several days did not have time to lay down his luggage and hurriedly rushed to the warehouse to stare at the goods.

Near the end of the year, the last big promotion - Double 122000 square meters warehouse has no spare space to let him stand.

He was still nervous and nervous when he watched a piece of clothing being inspector, inspecting, loading and packing for nearly 10 years.

"Simply can not be relaxed and happy to new, must stay up late, work overtime, tension, stress to death to sell well, heart tired."

Double 12 at 2 o'clock in the morning, when sales figures grew slowly, B Jun wrote in his circle of friends, "double promotion is basically over."

Can I go home and sleep? "

As a matter of fact, solving the problem of front-end stock preparation and operation is the key link in the new link.

The same fear has already spread to the other side of the supply chain.

It's hot and humid in Guangzhou.

One of the main suppliers of the electricity supplier chain.

A Jun from Hangzhou, standing at the gate of Zhongda market, is dripping with sweat from the big sun. He looks at the advertisement of investment advertisements made of cardboard.

He has been running for 3 days in order to find a processing plant that can return to Haizhuqu District in the new period, from Haizhuqu District and Baiyun District.

B Jun is a net seller, Mr. A.

Taobao stores are also in the rapid increment phase in the past two years. As with many small and medium-sized sellers, they are relying on new sales volume and controlling risks with pre-sale.

But Shang Xin and fear are like two sides of a store's business. They bring surprises to them, but also bring irresistible and endless troubles.

Perhaps the biggest pressure on the new generation comes from the amount of stock that can not be estimated and the slight backlog of inventory.

Left handed profit, right hand inventory, do you have new phobia?

Reporters visited different volume of business, and the founder, operator, designer, processing plant owner, warehouse manager and so on, around the new fear was discussed.

According to the content of the actual interview, we tried to sum up the three new fears and the corresponding cure methods.

Symptom 1: it is hard to predict the stock.

Laws, but they are full of unknowns.

Before the new start, the amount of stock can not be predicted as one of the biggest fears of sellers, because this will lead to two possibilities: first, the backlog of inventory, which will affect profits; two, the goods are not enough to sell, affecting the customer experience.

Method 1: conservative strategy pre-sale mode.

In the face of profit, we prefer to lose part of the user experience, and avoid the worse effects of inventory.

In B Jun's view, if we want to reduce the risk of high inventory, we need to make stock according to estimated sales volume as far as possible.

But market increments are somewhat unknown.

Take the double 11 as an example, B Jun's turnover is three times more than that of the same period last year, and sales volume is much higher than the original stock.

If the stock is estimated to be sold on the same day as double 11, the later returns may turn profits into inventory.

For businessmen, this is a more fatal problem.

For large and well funded shops, they tend to take larger orders.

Prior to this, the reporter had previously reported on the first language of the Amoy brand, with the experience of initial language stocking, they will take the time required for the return order as the basis for the first single stock.

For example, the down jacket needs 40 days' production cycle, and the first one will be sold for 40 days. Next, look at the data every day and increase the amount of return.

General businesses may not be appropriate.

On the basis of a small amount of stock to ensure stock safety, for B, he would rather arrange production immediately, pfer the order pressure to the controllable supply chain, or adopt the pre-sale mode.

In order to ensure the consumer experience as much as possible, B's practice is to control the pre-sale period as long as 2-3 weeks. If it takes longer, it will do Limited sales.

However, the advantage for B Jun is that since most of the products are designed and developed independently, they will not compete directly with the garments on the market. Therefore, many styles can be sold for many years, which is the reason why he can properly stock some stocks.

Method two: strengthening the ability of preliminary data research and analysis is an important way to ensure effective pre-sale.

In addition to the net red shop like B Jun, more and more sellers are paying attention to the operation of fans and communicating with fans through various channels, thus pushing back product forecasts.

But even so, businesses are still unable to predict specific quantities, and can only be limited to predicting explosions.

For example, in 2015, the ratio of actual purchases to consumers of double 11, B Jun's consumers plus shopping cart was less than 8%, while this year's figure is 14%, nearly doubled.

"We made stock in accordance with last year's purchase data, which resulted in the stock being far from meeting the demand and increasing the pressure of factory return."

He told reporters.

In fact, many businesses regard data teams as the core departments.

Strengthening the ability to research and analyze data in advance is an important way to ensure the accuracy of stocking.

In order to implement the data in the product, in the first half of 2015, the seven grid split the independent 10 person data team into the product line and operation line.

According to the experience of the seven grid, the first amount of the image is more than 200, while the basic one is 2000-5000, and the sales volume of 60% is 60%.

Seven, as far as possible, the grid should balance the pre-sale and inventory ratio. It should not only experience a good consumption experience, but also reduce the risk of inventory.

The sack of the goblin will divide the data into three steps, which are historical data, pre - data and complete data, which prejudge the product grade and late order before going on, and allocate the resources and funds according to the degree of classification.

According to the world clothing shoes and hats net, the goblin's pocket is 40 new pieces every week, the first single volume is divided into 300 and 500 two grades, the later return single account is about 60%, and the sold out rate is about 90%.

Compared with inventory (clothing), more and more businesses choose to prepare fabrics in advance, and the risk is relatively small.

On the one hand, shortening the cycle of turning over, on the one hand, in addition to the first ready-made garments made by oneself, subsequent sales can be made according to the sales or purchase data. On the other hand, even if the fabric is overstocked, it can also be used in other styles or sizes.

Method three: planning ahead, controlling the preheating rhythm.

A has always followed the idea of planning ahead.

Each new product will have a very clear theme, from style design, product presentation, late shooting, flat decoration to marketing planning, and so on, and products are closely related.

The general process is to take the lead from the commodity planning side, identify the brand names and the whole network data, find out the red and blue sea of the style, find the structural differences, analyze the reasons, and prepare for product development.

For example, by looking at various statistical reports to determine the proportion of clothing sales in the next season, we will determine the proportion of the customers according to the market survey and data collection, and then revise the version.

To deal with the new planning at ordinary times, we can make the flow more smoothly and predict the data more accurately, but in the face of big promotion, we need to constantly run in to cope with the new situation at any time.

Take the double 11 as an example, A Jun started planning in September, and the designer took the lead in setting the theme. After that, the Design Department agreed on what color, fabric, craft, how to plan products, display patterns, and illustration group, and so on, nearly 90 styles, which cost about 45 days.

Subsequently, A made three waves of preheating.

Finally, Mr. A made three waves of preheating, and found that the prediction error was that some of the products that were predicted to be exploded were not ideal, and some of the old ones that were not optimistic were selling well.

The lack of inventory required immediate return, disrupting the shop's production rhythm.

However, A Jun always affirmed the actual effect of the plan, especially in the preheating stage, which can not only enhance early exposure, gain user data, but also serve as a basis for later return.

There are many businesses that send new products to old customers as buyers' show, which is a preheating.

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Symptom two: production with less response

The subsequent problems brought by the pre-sale mode are: the pressure of return production, the amount of return is obviously greater than the first volume.

How to produce goods in a short period of time (usually within two weeks) is the source of fear for most businesses.

The general processing sequence is: after determining the style, the factory will make the order first, and the rest of the style will be found by the colleagues in the production department. The old processing plant with capacity can pick up the money, and the price and the style are all suitable for the purchase. Finally, the new processing plant will be developed.

Method 1: build factories to solve some of the capacity and use it flexibly.

A Jun has a self built factory of more than 70 people, and its capacity now covers 25% of sales.

"Self built factories can solve the problems of flexible pfer and low quantity. During the period of developing two new brands, in order not to curb the idea of the design department, they decided to invest and build factories.

Even if you don't make a factory, you need to maintain a group of people who check the quality.

Mr. A briefed reporters about the reasons.

And this heavy mode also means that we can better control the supply chain.

A net red seller once said frankly that even if the net red lead has passed, our foundation is still strong. How can the day change the root of the tree steadily?

However, for those shops that are not familiar with the supply chain, self built factories can stabilize part of the capacity, but there are also enormous challenges.

First of all, self built factories need more capital to invest continuously. According to Mr. A, the factory has been losing money since its establishment.

"Because we did not turn this part of the cost into selling directly to consumers, it's more like factories directly butting buyers."

Secondly, it is difficult to manage.

"Our requirement for the factory is quality + delivery period. As long as we recruit suitable, experienced and responsible people in every parking space, we can reasonably coordinate two requirements."

Although it has been training management personnel, replacing many factory directors, and even upgrading from parking spaces, it is still difficult to find suitable people.

Method two: establish long-term and deep supply and demand relationship with some factories, mutual benefit and good faith.

Due to the limited capacity of self built factories, knitted, denim, leather, down garments and other garments are highly professional. Businessmen often need to distribute more than half of their orders to cooperative processing plants, and then do quality inspection, packaging and final shipment after ready-made garments.

But there are many uncertainties in the market environment, which often make businessmen feel insecure.

Take A Jun, a self built factory as an example, the existing capacity is enough to cope with the volume of spring and summer, but in the autumn and winter alone, it is a little hard.

On the one hand, after G20, the mobility of personnel began to increase.

At this time, during the busy season, factories are short of manpower, which directly affects the production rhythm. Some processing factories even start to choose simple orders.

This led to a particularly long cycle this year, and 30 days for new and return orders, the longest in autumn and winter in the past and only 20 days in the past.

On the other hand, orders for this year were more than doubled last year, and from more than 20 thousand to 50 thousand, but 10 old processing plants that had been working for a long time were not enough, and 20 new processing plants were needed.

Finding the right processing plant is not easy.

Of course, the old processing plant is the first choice. They usually have hundreds of thousands of goods overloaded, and the business accounts for about 75 days, so they will not be easily violating regulations.

Processing plants in the park are also relatively regular, such as the Hangzhou Qiao Park, which stipulates that each processing plant must pay 50 thousand yuan deposit for each parking space as a constraint.

But more processing plants are not within the jurisdiction of the park.

In contrast, these factories do not have the loan constraint. Some factory bosses do not pay wages for 3 months, some start prices at the place, and they rush directly to increase the price during the rush period, otherwise they will not give the goods, or even get the money to run.

In B Jun's long term cooperative processing plant, most of the small processing plants are 5 or 6 years old, with workers ranging from a dozen to dozens, with annual capacity ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands.

These factories mainly focus on deep processing mode, and the distribution mode is different from that of the factories. All the fabrics are provided by businesses, and the processing factories are only responsible for receiving orders.

No need to spend a lot of money on spare parts, this mode is relatively less risky, but at the same time, they are always at the bottom end of the supply chain, with weak competitiveness, passive and lowest profit margins.

Under normal circumstances, the first single amount of 500-1000 pieces, the maximum return of 2-3, according to the difficulty of clothing, processing costs ranging from 10 yuan to tens of dollars.

After placing the order, the factory distribus the workers to operate, and if they exceed the load, they will not receive orders.

In the 3-5 days of a single volume of work, they will go to the merchant to look for the next order, and the judging standard is also based on style and price.

For many years of business, they already have a set of methods to identify and select factories, but in the selling season and customer reminder, it is inevitable that they need to constantly run in.

The insecurity between merchants and factories has unintentionally increased the difficulty of long-term cooperation between the two sides.

Therefore, some businessmen specially employ the Commissioner to reasonably allocate the processing sheet of the factory.

The benefits of long-term and stable cooperation between the two sides are that almost 80% of the capacity of small factories can only be served by one business, which is enough to guarantee the return cycle and quality, and the remaining 20% flexible pfers.

After a relatively stable business order, the processing plant can also improve its capacity and production technology on this basis.

Method three: go south to Guangzhou to avoid the current situation of processing and crowding, and increase the selection space of the factory.

This autumn and winter, there are foreseen businesses have scattered the factory to the outside; the strength of the choice is to increase the price, with higher than the industry standard processing fees to buy processing plant capacity; and cash carrying to the factory to rush the delivery period of the business.

Earlier, the seven grid had already planned to put the factory in Guangzhou after meeting the problem of too long production cycle, thus reducing the pressure of shipment in autumn and winter.

Faced with the same problem, A Jun began to shift production links to more southern Guangzhou.

At the end of October, Mr. A sent 3 hardworking production staff to Guangzhou, one to find the order factory, one to control the quality, and one to do the quality control.

Now we have successfully rented an office in Baiyun District and developed 5 processing plants.

Unlike the Hangzhou market, Guangzhou's supply chain is rich in resources, but its strength varies greatly.

According to Mr. A, factory quality is often divided into regions. The quality is arranged from good to bad. Haizhuqu District, Panyu District and Baiyun District are distributed in different districts. There are different markets in different districts. There are white horses, thirteen lines, Shahe and so on. The higher the floors in a market, the better the quality of processing, and the higher the cost of labor.

The way businesses connect with factories is also quite interesting.

The three advertising walls at the entrance of Zhongshan University are full of different sizes of paper, and the information of the processing factory signs is printed.

A special personnel is responsible for receiving advertisements. The highest advertising level is only 600 yuan.

With this information channel, Mr. A quickly received many phone calls from processing plants.

However, the market environment is strange, or let him just arrived in Guangzhou was smashed two.

He found one of the factories that had made a good sample of clothes and pulled the fabric of 3000 clothes without much thought.

When the fabric is finished, the factory requests to go to Hubei for processing. In order to avoid fabric scrapping, it has to pay 50 yuan / piece of the bed fee, otherwise it will delay the delivery date. The other one is the quality of the garment is not too good, but when it comes back, it has to increase the price, and it can only be moved by cash.

Although all the contracts were signed ahead of time, the production time left to the merchants was not enough before the urgent need was made. Finally, they had to compromise.

Although it is too late to go south to Guangzhou, fortunately, it can also avoid the current situation of processing and crowding in time and increase the choice of processing.

More interesting reports, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net.