Polyester Enterprise Operating Rate Breaking Through The Off-Season Bottleneck PTA In The Industrial Chain Value Depression State

Throughout the recent PTA price rise several times, there are a lot of capital surges, positions and trading volume changes significantly, the market mentality behind capital strength deserves attention.

On the whole, although the PTA price has a callback from the high point, but with the strong support from the cost side of crude oil and PX, with the temporary good demand from the downstream, and the strengthening of the bull mentality, the PTA price will still have room to rise.

As crude oil and PX prices remain at a high level, the supply and demand pattern of PTA is more reasonable and the market is more mindset. The PTA price is expected to continue to rise.

At present, crude oil market tends to be dull, crude oil oscillates at a higher position, and there is no obvious negative factor in the market.

With the implementation of the implementation of the production reduction agreement, and next year's oil market to achieve a balanced optimistic expectations, oil prices in the short term will be difficult to achieve a downward trend.

OPEC and non OPEC countries have reached a historic yield reduction agreement, not only pushing up oil prices in the short term, but also the attitude of the oil producing countries. The core of the attitude is that oil producers expect the oil market to reach a balance. Before the low oil price is not the ideal price for oil producing countries, low oil prices will not be tolerated for a long time, and the necessary action to support oil prices is inevitable.

That's why oil prices are climbing.

Crude oil rose and stabilized at a relatively high level, pulling the long distance of $800 / ton (CFR China) in the long run before the PX sweep, directly rushed to the top of US $850 / ton and kept it stable. In addition, the depreciation of the RMB was obvious. The cost of PTA raw materials rose sharply compared with the previous period, accounting for the average processing cost of the industry, and the cost of PTA has risen to 5200 yuan / ton above.

As the crude oil rose steadily, and

Supply is still tight, and PX prices continue to climb will be a big probability event.

In addition, the expectation of RMB depreciation is still strong, and the production cost of PTA will only increase.

From another point of view, PX price will play an increasingly important role in supporting PTA.

Benefiting from the good demand of PTA downstream polyester products,

The operating rate has broken through the bottleneck of the off-season, and has remained at a higher position above 80%.

But even so, polyester plant stocks are still at a historically low level. At present, POY and FDY stocks are roughly 0-5 days; polyester staple stocks are -7-2 days, part of them are in short supply for half a month; PET chips are stored for -2-5 days.

Low polyester stocks and even negative stocks in downstream polyester factories mean that polyester production rate will remain at a high level.

On the contrary, under the frequent maintenance of the device, the PTA operation rate is mostly below 70%.

So to speak

Supply and demand are more balanced, and short term PTA price increases are less likely.

On the other hand, the hot sale of downstream polyester products not only stimulates the polyester plant to maintain high start-up, but also maintains the strong demand for PTA, and even causes PTA to be in the state of industrial chain value depression, and directly supports PTA price psychologically.

From the main position, there is no longer the situation that the market has followed the sky and the empty market after the high inflation. Even though the PTA has adjusted slightly in recent years, the main shorting margin is still significantly higher than that of the bulls, indicating that the main shorts are obviously failing.

On the contrary, bulls are active and become an important thrust for PTA's rise.

From the analysis of the hedging situation, similar to the main position, with the PTA period price rising, the short covering insurance decreased slightly, and the bullion insurance increased significantly, from the previous hedging to zero to nearly 50 thousand hands. The increase was quite obvious, indicating that the industry funds began to be optimistic about the future market.

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