The Main Contradiction Existing In A Shares: Reducing Cash Holdings

The SFC approved the first application of 10 enterprises in accordance with statutory procedures, and some expected that the index would be suspended. On the one hand, the IPO issue accelerated every week, while the gem was pointing to the lower position. A few days ago, CCTV and Xinhua News Agency attributed public opinion to the IPO acceleration. The attribution was very superficial, and it misled the uninformed masses to turn their grievances towards IPO.

First, the decline in stock index has little to do with the acceleration of IPO.

First look at the IPO data: in 2016, IPO financing was about 160 billion yuan, slightly slower than the 2015 stock market before the 120 billion yuan rhythm, the direct financial needs of IPO brought to the market is moderate; CCTV has only five thousand listed companies in the past 100 years, compared with A shares IPO too much, but it has hidden a very high rate of withdrawal from the US stock market. Over the past hundred years, the number of US stock delisting households has exceeded 3 000 (with a slight difference in statistics of different sizes).

The increase in the cash portion is ignored: compared to the IPO financing of 160 billion yuan, in 2016, A shares increased by close to 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan, and the fixed financing increased by nearly 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan in 2015. However, in the four years of -2013 in 2010, the average increase in total financing was only 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan. After the issuance of the new regulation of loosening supervision oriented mergers and acquisitions, the surge of liberalization began. In 2014, there was a jump. The A share increased by 4 times, and it was 10 times the amount of financing in the year of IPO.

Reduction and lifting of the ban data is more noteworthy: in 2015, before the disaster, major shareholders reduced cash holdings by 500 billion yuan (bull market effect reduction was at a high level, after the stock market crash). In 2016, the cash holdings were reduced by 360 billion yuan, and the two data were much higher than the IPO financing quota of the same year. If the data is split, the truth is even more brutal: in December 2016, the lifting of the A shares was about 370 billion yuan, of which the lifting of the ban from IPO was less than 100 billion, and the lifting of the ban was as high as 280 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 90%, and the corresponding reduction in total amount was also high. Only the gem was reduced by 20 billion last month, among which the liquidation of large shareholders and the sale of shell type were in an endless stream. Accordingly, CCTV Statistics said that in 2016, the average loss per investor was 24 thousand yuan.

The combination of these data strongly illustrates:

1, the A stock maintained the valuation bubble and did not give the over-the-counter enterprises too many opportunities to share IPO. IPO was not too fast but too slow.

2, the fixed increase is often linked to the reorganization and acquisition. Behind the sharp increase in the fixed amount, the big shareholders and institutions that have low price increase have made a lot of money. They have fully enjoyed the bubble feast of A shares.

3, due to the lifting of the ban and reduction in fixed growth, the high fixed amount of financing in the past two years will be a huge sell-off pressure for A shares in the next two years. From the point of view of chips, not IPO, increasing the lifting of the ban is the biggest pressure on the stock index.

This is the A stock for many years, the major shareholders and their surrounding organizations, under the approval system protection become real moth rat, big shareholders and capital players do not operate, by playing with the concept of shell restructuring, can earn a fortune for a lifetime can not earn. This distorts the values of social distribution, the values of enterprise management and the values of A share investment. It is hard to be honest and diligent to make big money. Speculation can make them rich. Capital is too hard to make real, too hard to do business, and billions of dollars in capital operation. So there are so many XX departments, XX capital and XX predators.

Two, the root of the decline is the collapse of the bubble after the expected reversal.

People with first line trading experience will be clear that in the market atmosphere with a strong atmosphere, IPO and reduction, and even more fundamental and more serious profits, can not hinder the rise of the market. They are only one or two streams of influence that affect the big wave of the market. Only when the market sentiment is fragile, can IPO and reduction become signals, which makes the market anticipate self actualization and cause fear of IPO and reduction.

Under the support of the high growth industries represented by Internet + and media entertainment, every company can talk about a high growth stock market, and billions of dollars are just the starting point, and billions of dollars are entering the threshold. Trillion giants are just around the corner. Under this optimistic atmosphere, the gem has lasted for about 3 years, and the stock index has risen 6 times. It's not related to the boss of the company, but the wind of the industry is too big.

　　 A shares Under the protection of the examination and approval system, there is a special system arbitrage space. Every company has expected the restructuring of the backdoor, which has maintained the valuation bubble of all the small cap stocks. A shares are valued 50 times and 80 times, and 10 times, 15 times the valuation of the acquisition of foreign capital production and installation. (junk assets do not matter, as long as the packaged assets are everywhere deceived), profits and market capitals take off together. This behavior itself can be understood as a civilized fraud economy under the acquiescence of the legal system.

History shows that when any industrial outlet is stopped, most of the last century's American Railways, steel magnate and IT are expensive. Today, the Internet, games, movies and Internet finance will all be chicken feathers. History has also proved that over 80% of mergers and acquisitions will end up in the face of adverse selection (buying unsold essence) and integration problems, and the fragile valuation reports based on performance expectations in the next three years are garbage.

The most clear of these is the shareholders of listed companies, so we must reduce, emphasize once again, clearing the reduction.

One person runs away and tens of thousands stampede. This is the tragic root of small stocks now, from optimistic expectations to prudent or even pessimistic expectations, from valuation premium to normal valuation and final valuation discount. For investors, do not attempt to easily copy the bottom, do not immerse in growth stocks once held in the golden age is the illusion of big profits, a piece of land that has been ploughed ten times, will not bury gold, expect growth after the reversal of stocks, in addition to very few dragon and Phoenix most of the rebound value only.

Market funds always follow the scarcity, the gem has been scarce, once young, so there is a dream, now see the light dead old Zhuhuang, do not invest in investment, on the contrary, to be a dissipated son, when young, good love and thorough, and then change the old and new.

This is the root cause of the decline of Chuang Xiao board, and IPO has little to do with it. The real IPO is like spanporting a young, beautiful sister paper train to a A town. Can't you see that every train is full of the hunting young lad, IPO is in short supply? The arrival of the new girl just makes the value of the old girl discounted and accelerates depreciation. As long as there are many lads in every A sister town in the IPO stock market, IPO can continue to accelerate.

Every young man has the right to pick his own younger sister paper. This is the basic human rights of the A share Town, rather than the control of the supply of younger sister paper, resulting in the shortage of sister paper and the lads' hunger for food. Unless the old girls who have no charm are hoping that the new sister will break the supply.

Three, we should continue to accelerate IPO to promote metabolism.

Can not let small stocks fall, continue to maintain? Valuation bubble ?

Of course, in the past ten years, our big A shares have been so bad, a lame, distorted and distorted capital market, and a few people are rich enough to manipulate and kill the prairie grassland. Suspending the IPO, suspending the market and suspending the draconian laws can be done properly. However, as a shareholder, you would like to see that you make up three melon, two seeds, and a pair of bottompants in the stock market morning and night. The capital players and movie stars pour hands on story painting and draw hundreds of billions of dollars into their pockets. Even if you are willing, I am afraid the current state will will not be willing to do so.

The smooth market, the normal withdrawal of the market and the market of severe punishment are the only way for all the cattle and fork countries in history. It is the resultant force of the will of the whole people. It will not be reversed because of a single incident. The disillusionment of bubbles in the market is an irresistible trend. The waste assets will go back to zero. The capitalists who play with the concept will sooner or later give way to the down-to-earth doers, which is the intrinsic value of society. This is the turning point.

IPO can not only slow down and pause (especially when the market value is tied up in the new situation, the suspension may mean big stock market), and even should continue to accelerate the trend, breaking the IPO fear of the market. IPO is not the enemy of the market, but the expected enemy is the enemy. At present, the new shares are similar to the raffle. Three lottery tickets are not enough for a day. Why not try to win 800 lottery tickets without any expectation after a day? (a long vacation). Everyone wins the lottery. The issue price is reduced by 15 times. If the value is willing to sell, it will be sold in batches. The index will suddenly dig holes and then thoroughly digest the IPO barrier lake. This is both a joke and not a joke. If it is delayed, it will not work.

There will be two types of market in the future: hard assets with stable profits and pan consumption blue chips will always be scarce. New giants emerging in fierce competition and rising in occasional blue seas are also scarce, and in the final analysis, they are good companies. Instead of imaginary head and brain phantom, it is impossible to realize possible stocks.

Of course, the conversion cycle will be longer. It must be accompanied by the continuous increase of IPO, the continuous emergence of delisting, the admission of high price tickets and prison supervision into a new normal. There have been many proposals for reform in the stock market. Up to now, two regulators have done pretty well: just do not say the registration system, and expand the scope of strict control. However, supervision still needs to be strengthened, and regulation is not enough for ordinary mergers and acquisitions, listed companies to send high returns, and so on. In particular, penalties for illegal behaviors are as tender and cute as young mothers are disciplining children. Why not use the means to punish big shareholders who manipulate stock prices and go bankrupt to jail?

As for whether the irregularities are promptly and vigorously delisted, this issue may be worth further discussion. Bad stocks should be taken as a warning. But large scale direct delisting is a great panic for retail investors. If the share price goes down for a long time and the market value is very low, the cost and resistance of the delisting will be reduced, and even many companies will take the initiative to withdraw from the market. The over-the-counter company will be deterred from IPO and the supply and demand of the stock will be automatically balanced. But this process can not be cheap enough to become a major shareholder and a tool to shield major shareholders from reducing wealth.

Four, we should limit the reduction and provide cushioning for market decline.

If a lot of small cap stocks can't escape. Value regression Is the regulator seeing the boat sinking into the sea? The personal view is that the regulators should see the ship sink, but save the people first. The decline in share prices is not reversed by regulators, but the rate of decline is the choice of regulators. A sharp drop and a sharp fall and no rebound all the way to the south. It has great harm to the retail investors, and there is a rebound between slow down and slow down, so that chips can be exchanged and scattered down.

From another point of view, to maintain the current valuation bubble, the beneficiaries are large shareholders and large institutions involved in the increase. Why does the administrative system consume such a strong listing control resources, and ultimately benefit a few capital players? The past suspension of IPO and the once bail-out have brought many large shareholders on the verge of bankruptcy to bring back to life, but the frequent natural turnover of retail investors still can not escape the final loss. At present, a large number of large shareholders continue to reduce their holdings and sell their shells. They take away far more than they have ever contributed to labor. The reality is unsustainable industries. On the A share, they only need to sell shares (ultimately, from the retail and state hands) to hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth. The one or two case is the market phenomenon.

Whether to limit the reduction of large shareholders is not simply a question of marketization, but a political issue involving the distribution of wealth and the spanfer of class interests.

Before and after the 2015 crash, Liu Shuwei, a professor at Central University of Finance and Economics, made numerous remarks to attack the irrational reduction of major shareholders. Her overall grasp of the problem was admirable. Unfortunately, she was aiming at a case which might not be appropriate for music. The stock market crash has been suspended for a period of six months, but six months later, the new rules have been reduced. Such restrictions have been retained on the surface, such as the disclosure of major shareholders' holdings in one month and the choice of bulk trading.

Restricting the reduction of large shareholders is the old form before the reform of non tradable shares, which is a means of regulation and non marketization. However, many written articles suggest that we should strictly control and reduce holdings and express a view that split share structure has some rationality. It tends to allow large shareholders to focus their efforts on making profits and dividends instead of being interested in speculation. Therefore, it is not inappropriate to return to split share structure temporarily. Moreover, before the registration system is implemented, administrative means can be used in a phased way, or even with great administrative means, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of marketization. Because we advocate marketization, and do not dare to use administrative means in specific key areas, it is self binding or even dereliction of duty.

Therefore, this calls for the IPO to constantly accelerate the throes of the small cap stock bubbles. The regulators should give the market good results and use as much administrative means as possible to limit the sell-off and sale of major shareholders and institutional investors. We should combine the dividends, profits and price earnings ratios to strictly control the removal of large shareholders from the wealth they created. For example, after the reduction of large shareholders, the chips are not allowed to be sold in the two tier market, the total reduction is not more than the historical dividend, and the reduction income is not more than 20 times that of PE. The excess income is temporarily spanferred to the investor protection fund, or even suspended for 3 years. In addition, a fixed increase in the purpose of mergers and acquisitions can also be suspended in due course.

We should stick to the principle that meat is rotten in the pot and allow small and medium-sized investors to run ahead, rather than the other way round, so that small and medium-sized investors can add blood to the capital gains of the players. This is another form of distribution. The dividends of the original system bring the wealth of the large shareholders to the small and medium-sized investors who once shed tears. And strict control and reduction of capital profit margins, A shares a lot of chaos, including a variety of capital brokers, a variety of star directors, all kinds of PPT, will automatically disappear.

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