The Number Of Seed Cotton In The Yellow River Basin Has Been Greatly Reduced, And The Problem Of "No Rice Under The Pot" Will Be More Prominent.

In 2016, the national dumping policy was the core factor affecting cotton price movements.

In addition, tight supply in the spot market and broad cotton trading in the cotton market are also the reasons for the rise in cotton prices.

In 2017, for cotton textile market, under the background of "going stock", cotton imports continued to be restricted by quota policy, and cotton city's emphasis was still on digestion.

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Individual ginning plants began to resume work, the purchase price was raised, and the spot price of lint rose a lot.

According to the latest forecast by the US Department of agriculture, the gap between domestic cotton supply and demand in 2016/2017 will reach 2 million 232 thousand tons, and the new year will continue to be allocated to ensure the supply of cotton.

In terms of demand, cotton yarn enterprises have increased their capital pressure due to raw material prices, and the number of printing and dyeing enterprises has been shut down due to increased number of factories.

The industry expects that the cotton market consolidation will be bottomed up before and after the Spring Festival, along with the price of the reserve cotton wheel will rise. At the same time, with the promotion of substitute chemicals and other raw materials, the overall focus of 2017 will continue to move upward.

The head of a 400 type cotton ginning mill in Cangzhou said, "cotton farmers have not seen cotton sales yet, but our price has risen by about 0.1 yuan per year."

After their factory year, the purchase of seed cotton will be based on linen and color as the main pricing targets, with the linen percentage of 38% and above, and the price of white cotton at the color level of 3.85 yuan / kg, which will be raised by 0.08-0.10 yuan / Jin before the Spring Festival holiday.

Speaking of raising the price of seed cotton, the official said: "in Cangzhou, for example, the cotton area in 2016 was about 300 thousand mu, down 57.1% from 700 thousand mu in 2015.

By the end of the Spring Festival holiday, cotton sales were over 85%, and cotton farmers have limited seed cotton.

The price of cottonseed jumped rapidly.

As of February 3rd, Hebei, Cangzhou, Xingtai and other places

Loading price 1.6 yuan / jin (cottonseed oil 12%, moisture 12%), Shandong Dezhou, Heze and other places loading price 1.63-1.65 yuan / Jin, compared to the Spring Festival holiday before rising 0.05 yuan / kg.

"The key is to basically find no cottonseed. The oil mill can only buy Xinjiang cottonseed to maintain normal production."

Li, the head of an oil refineries, said that due to the rising market of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal before and after the Spring Festival, some oil refineries resumed work earlier this year after the Spring Festival, but many suffer from the shortage of cottonseed and can only buy at a high price.

The cotton market is heating up rapidly.

Zheng cotton futures rose sharply. In the last trading day before the Spring Festival holiday, Zheng cotton futures closed 15490 yuan / ton in the past 1703 months, up 45 yuan / ton, and the main 1705 contract closed at 15665 yuan / ton.

In February 3rd, the first trading day after the festival, Zheng cotton opened at 15900 yuan / ton and continued to rise 235 yuan / ton.

Zheng cotton rose sharply, bringing greater confidence to the market.

Spot prices are heating up.

As of 3 days, the Hebei Cangzhou real estate cotton 3128 class factory quoted price 15700-16000 yuan / ton (gross weight, pick up goods), compared to the Spring Festival holiday before raising 200-300 yuan / ton.

According to the 400 type manufacturers, the spot price increase is affected by the increase in warehousing and interest costs. On the other hand, the textile industry has strong confidence in resuming labor after the festival, and the demand for cotton production is relatively strong.

Recently, some cotton traders have raised the price of cotton in Xinjiang. According to a Shandong cotton trader, the current "double 29" hand picked price of Xinjiang cotton reached 16800 yuan / ton, up nearly 400-600 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival.

To sum up, after the Spring Festival, the whole cotton market is full of spring, and the confidence of the industry has increased significantly. Some of the delisting enterprises are planning to return to work recently, which indicates that the cotton market in 2017 is getting warmer.

In 2017 cotton prices will be weak before strong shocks.

In the early stage, the new cotton will not be stored in the previous year, it will be digested by the market, and the supply will be relatively loose. The cotton price will be slightly weaker. In the later stage, as the stock goes on, the inventory consumption ratio will return to the rational interval to support the cotton price rising trend.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.