US President Trump Promotes Trade Protection Against China

According to the world clothing and shoe net reporter, the new US President Trump's public statement about "buy American goods and hire Americans" on his twitter meant that the war on manufacturing in China and the United States was officially opened, and people from all walks of life in the United States also paid high attention to it.

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According to the insiders, Trump's confrontation with China's manufacturing industry is nothing more than four weapons: trade protection, major tax cuts, infrastructure investment and interest rate rises.

Trump made a public statement last month: "the new government will actively promote the return of manufacturing industry, and will improve the business environment."

It also makes Chinese textile and garment industry full of concern and speculation about the trend of international trade in 2017.

Haitong Securities analyst Yu Xuhui said that China is the largest textile in the world.

At the same time, export of textiles and garments is also an important part of China's trade export.

Along with China's economic development and industrial upgrading, the proportion of textile and clothing exports in China's total foreign trade has gradually decreased, and maintained at around 13% in recent years.

On the export market, the United States is the largest exporter of textiles and clothing in China. In 2016 1-10, the US exports accounted for 17% of the total export volume of textiles and clothing.

From the point of view of export structure, clothing exports and textile exports were supplemented. In 2015, the two share was 61% and 39% respectively.

Yu Xuhui said that although China and the United States are interacting with each other,

The largest trading partner in the field, and the textile and clothing exported to the United States occupy the absolute advantage of the US market. However, the US trade partners are relatively diversified. If there is trade friction, they can still buy from Vietnam, Mexico, India and other places. The development of the textile and garment industry is relatively mature and the barriers to entry are relatively low. It is very easy to take orders pfer. Therefore, if Sino US trade friction occurs, the textile and garment industry in China will be negative.

According to the Labor Statistics Bureau of the US labor department, along with the adjustment of industrial structure in the United States, the total output value of the US manufacturing and textile and garment industry continued to decline in GDP. In 1947, the two data were 25.4% and 3.5%, respectively, and declined to 12% and 0.2% in 2015.

Textile and garment industry occupies a very low proportion in the whole US economy.

Data show that in 2015, the total output value of the textile and garment industry in the United States was US $76 billion, including man-made fibers and filament, textiles and garments.

From the point of view, textile mills, textile factories, garments, man-made fibres and filaments are 307, 232, 139 and 8 billion 200 million dollars respectively.

In 2015, the number of textile and garment industries in the United States was 579 thousand and 300, accounting for only 0.38% of the total 152 million of the total employed population in the United States.

Yu Xuhui believes that the textile and garment industry is a typical labor-intensive industry, and if Trump plans to make reflux, it is also mainly for solving the employment considerations. Therefore, even if there is a manufacturing reflux, there will not be a large-scale machine replacement. Then, the high labor wages will significantly improve the production cost of the American textile and clothing products.

Even in China, where labor costs are relatively low, labor wages are also an important part of production costs. Taking the production cost composition of the joint stock textile and clothing products as an example, raw materials are the main source of cost, accounting for nearly 60%, and wages are the second largest cost components.

Compared with the labor costs of China and the United States, the average weekly wage of the US manufacturing industry reached 962 US dollars (50 thousand US dollars / year), while the average annual salary of the Chinese manufacturing employment personnel was only 55000 yuan, and the gap was obvious.

In combination, Yu Xuhui believes that in the short term, the textile and garment industry in the United States does not have the basis of reflux.

However, the media also noted in the interview that according to Gai Xinzhe, a researcher at the Bank of China International Finance Research Institute, considering Trump's public opinion foundation, speech tendency, nomination team characteristics and personal style, it is expected that the trade friction between the United States and China will increase. However, it will not quit WTO and launch an extreme trade war. Giving up TPP will create trouble for RCEP and Sino US BIT negotiations.

Faced with the signs of globalization against the tide of Trump's trade policy, China should not be passive in taking the initiative. We should actively and actively seek the opportunity to promote the liberalization of Global trade in services, accelerate the construction of the "free trade area" of partners and partners, and take account of the exchange rate's short-term and long-term perspective in China, and take the road of reform and opening up.

Gai Xinzhe believes that intensifying trade protection and manufacturing trade friction will become the focus of Trump's work after taking office.

Although there is a certain deviation between the promise made in the US presidential election and the real policies implemented in the later stage, such as Nixon's foreign policy and Reagan's fiscal policy have been substantially adjusted, the president of the United States often starts work in the field of easy breakthroughs and achievements.

Taking into account Trump's political foundation and stability

A more mature and more mature trade policy team will have stronger protection in the direction of US trade policy, and will choose some influential industries to manufacture trade frictions, such as steel and other industries.

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