Why Did The Real Economy Regain The Favor Of Bank Credit?

What is the difference this time? The market needs to accurately understand the current interest rate increase. Recently, the central bank raised the interest rate of reverse market, such as reverse repo, SLF and MLF, which is different from the traditional raising interest rates. This is a directional structural interest rate increase rather than a comprehensive interest rate increase. The policy objective of this rate hike is to prevent risks from deleveraging rather than curb economic overheating and inflation. The object of regulation is to "get rid of the real to the virtual" in the financial market, "to stir money with money" and unreasonable leverage rather than the real economy. The policy tool is to raise the interest rate of the money market rather than the interest rate of loans and loans. The most direct impact is the bond market rather than the stock market and the real economy.

Since August 2016, monetary policy has continued to tighten, bond markets have been greatly affected, housing market regulation has been continuously strengthened, but A shares are moving steadily.

Moreover, since January 2017, the central bank has been raising interest rates by raising the interest rate of the open market. A shares have not only been unaffected, but have come out of the opening. Why? We believe that this cycle of interest rate rises is good for the stock market, and suggest that investors actively grasp the time window for the two sessions.

This is not the key to the problem. The key to the problem is that the recent policy has leveraged the bond market by raising the interest rate of the money market. By restricting the purchase of loans and regulating the real estate, not only mortgage loans but also development loans have been strictly controlled. How can the banks operate under the strict control of the housing market? The banks can only increase the lending strength to the real economy, which is the fundamental reason for the credit exceeding expectations in December 2016 and January 2017, and the part of the credit exceeding expectations is mainly the medium and long-term loans of enterprises.

This also means that in recent policies, funds will be pushed back through the regulation of the housing market.

The fund shows signs of "going to reality", which is good for the real economy and enterprise performance, and the negative impact of molecular improvement will be on the hedge denominator.

Why did the capital of "go from real to virtual" come back again?

1) by the supply clearing, demand recovery and currency super impetus, commodity prices rose sharply in 2016, and PPI rebounded sharply, rising from 10.8 in January to 10.8 in 2016.

2) driven by a sharp rise in PPI, the level of real lending rates has dropped sharply.

3) driven by the rise in the price and the cost of financing, the profits of enterprises have greatly improved. In 2016, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 8.5% over the same period last year, 10.8 percentage points faster than that of the previous year.

4) export recovery has been affected by the resumption of external demand and the depreciation of the renminbi.

In the past 2015-2016 years, the RMB depreciated against the US dollar by about 14%.

Since the second half of 2016, the PMI index of us, Europe and Japan has continued to rise, driven by the replenishment stock, the Trump effect and the rise in commodity prices. Among them, the PMI index of manufacturing industry in the US, euro area and Japan in January 2017 was 56, 55.1 and 52.7, up 1.5, 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively from last month.

5) infrastructure and PPP projects are strongly supported by policies.

Since 2016, PPP has exceeded expectations, exceeded expectations and exceeded expectations. In December 28, 2016, the national development and Reform Commission and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued the notice on promoting asset securitization in the field of government and social capital cooperation (PPP) in the field of traditional infrastructure.

In January 2017, the Xinjiang government's work report put forward that in 2017, the total investment in fixed assets of the whole society was 1 trillion and 500 billion, an increase of more than 50%.

The biggest interest rate hike is the housing market.

The 2015-2016 year and second tier housing prices skyrocketing is more of a monetary and financial phenomenon. The policy is to relax restrictions on purchase and loan and to cut interest rates and reduce incentives. The big background is that urbanization has entered the second stage of population gathering to the metropolitan area.

In the global real estate bubble: spawning, craziness, collapse and revelation, we find that the collapse of all real estate bubbles is related to tightening money and raising interest rates.

As China's real estate market is becoming more and more divorced from the fundamentals of population and household income, and monetary finance is becoming more and more popular, prices will become more and more sensitive to monetary tightness.

Since October 2016, a new round of real estate regulation such as purchase and loan restrictions has been introduced. This time, raising interest rates is no doubt a plus.

At present, the rising interest rate in the money market has already passed to the bond yield and has begun to pmit to the loan interest rate.

According to media reports, Beijing will implement the new personal housing loan business requirements, mortgage interest rate is not less than the benchmark interest rate 10 percent off, since February 8th (inclusive) net signed effective two suite loan period is the longest not more than 25 years.

In 2015, we proposed "double first line housing prices". In September 2016, we proposed that the price rise is coming to an end. In October, the new round of real estate regulation and control intensified.

We maintain that the housing market will be adjusted to the judgement of -2018 at the end of 2017.

This round

The cycle has been absorbed to a large extent by the bad debt market.

Since August 2016, the central bank has begun to regulate the leverage behavior of the bond market.

At the end of August 2016, the 14 day reverse repurchase was restarted, and the 28 day reverse repurchase was restarted. The operation of MLF was strengthened.

。

In January, the central bank formally raised the MLF interest rate for half a year and one year.

In February 3rd, the central bank again raised interest rates on reverse repurchase and SLF.

Affected by this, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds rose from 2.64% low in mid August 2016 to 3.4% now.

Taking into account the impact of economic L exploration and real estate regulation, the fundamentals do not support the long term increase in yields on long end bonds, and the purpose of central bank regulation is to leverage leverage instead of increasing the financing cost of the real economy.

Therefore, we have judged that this cycle of raising interest rates has been absorbed to a large extent by the debt market, and the most difficult period of adjustment of debt market is in the past.

The two sessions may be the time window for the stock market to expand, focusing on the two main lines of performance and reform.

Catalyst: benefit from credit exceeding expectations, price increases and export recovery, business performance may exceed expectations; the "two sessions" before and after the supply side reform policy is beyond expectations, mixed changes, to increase production capacity to expand the scope, PPP, all the way, and so on. In February 6th, at the deep restructuring meeting, Xi Jinping's general book stressed that the reform should be placed in a more prominent position. From the turnover rate and trading volume, the market is building up. The latest data of China settlement reveal that 2017.1.23 to 2017.2.3, the number of investors at the end of the stock market has dropped below 50 million for the first time in nearly 20 months, unchanged from 2013-2014 years.

Since January, we have increased the recommendation for stocks and gold. We have made clear recommendations for the two categories of assets at the bottom: we recommend gold and stock markets in the weekly weekly "interest rate hike". In the January 2nd issue of the weekly newspaper, "the dawn of dawn" shows that "the recent negative factors are beginning to ebb, and the market is ushering in the window of repair, and the theme of inflation and reform is recommended." "in February 5th,"

And the gold investment opportunities brought by the US dollar callback in the one or two quarter.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.