French Foreign Trade Bank: Emerging Market Bond Market Net Capital Entered A 19 Week High

Lysu Paez Cortez, a research analyst at Natixis, pointed out that emerging markets proved to be highly resilient and performed well in the first month of 2017. Emerging market countries and stocks exchange rate Both are rising, and the net inflow of emerging bond markets has also reached a 19 week high.

Cortez said that the emerging market elasticity can be interpreted as an improvement in global economic growth in view of the fact that the economic growth prospects of the emerging economies are not really taking off, and that the political uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic is increasing and the interest rates of the developed countries are expected to rise in the year. The latest data show that the growth of emerging market economies and industrial activities are better than expected. Despite the brightest macroeconomic indicators of developed countries, the economic fundamentals of emerging countries also improved slightly at the beginning of the year.

Last November when Trump was elected president of the United States to the stock market of emerging markets, the MSCI emerging market index has risen sharply since December 26th. The index has risen 9.5% since the beginning of this year and has returned to 940 points, reaching the level of 2015. Crude oil prices are relatively stable, and the rebound in other commodity prices also benefits emerging economies.

At the same time, emerging market The currency continued to appreciate against the US dollar and was recovering strongly from the end of 2016. Russia's ruble, Brazil Real and South African rand have taken the lead in the recovery, rising by 7%, 6.3% and 6.2% respectively, but the exception of lira in Turkey has dropped 4% since the beginning of this year.

Investors in emerging markets are still optimistic and have a strong preference for local currency bonds. According to data from capital flow monitoring agency EPFR, in the week ending February 15th, a significant net inflow of US $2 billion 560 million in emerging markets was the sixth consecutive week of inflow and the largest single week inflow since October 2016.

Data show that these inflows into the emerging market mainly flow into the stock market. Capital inflow The largest is the Columbia stock market, followed by Russia and Egypt. The capital inflow of the Hongkong stock market has also hit a new high since last September. In addition, all global stock funds attracted more than 17 billion US dollars in net inflow, bond funds attracted 6 billion 700 million dollars, and money market funds suffered 11 billion 200 million dollar redemption.

The economic growth of emerging countries is rising, though the growth trend is quite uneven, and the industry and trade in emerging countries are continuously improving, especially in the export industry. But at the same time, the economic growth prospects of the emerging economies are still limited, because global policy has a restraining effect, especially the US President Trump's trade policy is also conducive to protectionism.

Cortez concluded that since Trump was elected president of the United States in November last year, the market's selling of emerging market assets, the current investor's desire for new assets and the suspicion of the US government's new deal support asset prices at the technical level. And even if the Fed raises interest rates this year, the situation facing emerging market countries may not get worse.

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The China entry exit inspection and Quarantine Association (hereinafter referred to as the "association") held the third session of the fourth member congress in Beijing. Li Yuanping, deputy director general of the General Administration of quality supervision, inspection and quarantine, Ge Zhirong, former president of the State Council counselor and inspection and Quarantine Association, attended the meeting. The 2016 annual work report and financial report of the association were made to the delegates. The principle of "13th Five-Year plan" and related regulations for the development of the association were adopted in principle, and the proposals of the directors, executive directors and vice presidents of the association were considered collectively, and the president and Secretary General of the new association were elected.

Li Yuanping fully affirmed the achievements of the association. He said that the association has strongly promoted the transmission of policies, served the development of enterprises, strengthened the discipline of industries, and promoted the non-governmental exchanges with other countries. In his speech, Ge Zhirong thanked the AQSIQ and all parties for their support over the years, and put forward the hope and suggestions for the next step of the association's work. More than 400 representatives from all walks of life attended the meeting.

Li Yuanping stressed that at present, China's economic and social development has entered a new normal. No matter from the requirements of the party and the state, or from the needs of the development of the association itself, all trade associations are required to accurately grasp the new situation and new requirements of the development of the industry, persist in reform and innovation, and make greater use of it. He asked that the association should focus on improving the quality of the industry in 2017, focus on improving the level of service capabilities, focus on building an industry governance system, and focus on strengthening the association's own construction. We should carry out various tasks and welcome the party's nineteen convening with outstanding achievements.

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