Where Is The Next Wave Of Investment? Money Is Becoming More And More Worthless.

No matter how rational the money is, if debt is like a mountain peak, the decline in purchasing power of money is the general trend for the sake of survival.

There are only two ways to deal with it. One is to earn money and then to spend quickly. The two is to earn money and give it to honest and professional investment institutions.

Considering that China's economic pformation is successful, it is the process of potential enterprises' success. For individuals, asset allocation is the main law of survival for combining capital with future enterprises.

Debt is rising, money purchasing power is falling, money is not worth it, you just don't want to invest and invest.

Some time ago, a piece of news was crazy, and China's fixed assets investment exceeded 45 trillion.

In February 18th, according to statistics released by various provinces, 23 provinces in China have announced the target of fixed assets investment in 2017, with a total investment of more than 40 trillion yuan. For example, the provinces that have not yet been published will invest less than 45 trillion this year.

45 trillion, nothing. Investment in fixed assets is likely to exceed 45 trillion this year.

You know,

The fixed investment base is very high. In 2015, the fixed assets investment in the whole society was 56 trillion, and in 2016 it was 59 trillion. As long as the growth of fixed assets investment this year exceeds 8% in the lower 2016, the fixed asset investment in 2017 will easily exceed 60 trillion yuan.

Moreover, before 2013, the growth rate of fixed assets investment exceeded 20% every year.

The data released by the CICC research team are even more frightening.

They believe that as the growth rate of real estate investment will slide slightly, the manufacturing industry may increase slightly, and the overall fixed asset investment growth rate will probably come from infrastructure construction.

Last year, the nominal growth rate of infrastructure was 15.7%. The growth rate of capital construction is expected to be higher than that of last year. It may rise to 16%-20%.

Investment in fixed assets can stabilize economic growth, but the terrible thing is loss.

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Investment does not necessarily bring inflation, but inefficient investment leads to inflation.

Taking airport construction as an example, in February 16th, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of pport jointly issued the thirteenth five year plan for the development of China's civil aviation. During 13th Five-Year, China will build and build 74 airports and build more than 50 airports. By 2020, the number of civil pport airports in China will grow from 260 in 2015 to 260.

On the surface, this is a good thing, but not necessarily.

Data show that the loss ratio of the more than 190 airports in the country is as high as 70%~80%, with a huge loss. Only about 50 airports are profitable. The more the branch airports are built, the bigger the losses.

Do not move compared with the United States, people from east to west economically developed areas far enough, our country's economy is concentrated in Mohe County, east of Tengchong, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta city group, high-speed rail pit is enough, it is hard to imagine Suzhou, Wuxi, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Jiaxing, these cities are covered with railways.

Whether it is the company's order or not?

In fact, the debts of large enterprises and local governments must rise.

According to UBS's research report, the total debt of non-financial sector reached 205 trillion yuan at the end of 2016, 2.77 times the gross domestic product, which was higher than the level of the same period in 2015 - 175 trillion yuan, which was 2.54 times that of GDP in 2015.

Since the financial crisis, the total debt of the non-financial sector has soared by 130 percentage points.

Government debt is about 68% of GDP, household debt is about 45% of GDP, corporate debt is about 164% of GDP, and corporate debt is the highest in the world, far higher than 0.86 times in 2008.

In particular, the increase in investment means credit growth, and the size of China's debt will rise further, which is expected to exceed 300% of GDP in 2 years.

The rise of debt is manifested in two aspects, which is the rise of loan numbers or underground passages.

In January, new loans increased by 2 trillion and 30 billion, a year high.

Loans for non-financial enterprises and institutional groups increased by 1 trillion and 560 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 433 billion 100 million yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 1 trillion and 520 billion yuan, bills financing decreased by 452 billion 100 million yuan, and loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 279 billion 900 million yuan.

Shanghai central headquarters issued the Shanghai January loan data also the same.

Mortgage loans have declined, and medium and long-term loans have increased. Banks follow the policy.

More and more self financing of infrastructure projects may not be the improvement of debt situation. It is probably the result of capital bypass.

The Research Report of the CICC fixed collection team showed that the absolute value and proportion of non-standard financing increased rapidly in the near future. In the past year, the net increase of entrusted loans and trust loans increased by 3 trillion and 360 billion. Moreover, the micro survey showed that the recent non-standard projects were still more. Therefore, the central bank tightened the money slightly and the interest rate of short-term interbank offered interest increased.

All shows that debt is rising, but debt will not collapse because of the decline in purchasing power of money.

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