China's Economy Will Be Able To Usher In A Stable Situation Despite The Rejection Of Financial System Chaos.

China's financial system is in turmoil. First of all, the financial reform has made the surplus funds of the common people reach the chain of the enterprises longer and longer. Some people say that the enterprises can directly finance through the stock market and the bond market. How many enterprises in China can reach the credit level of direct issuing bonds, and the Yan se Lake in the stock market IPO is not big enough? In other words, how much money can the Chinese people have to bear more and more financial risks? Do they have the following three constraints to China?

The one-year Shibor has broken 4% at the end of the year, and the central bank's benchmark lending rate is only 4.3%. What does this mean? That is to say, the cost of financing of commercial banks is close to the benchmark lending interest rate. Does this still allow banks to live? Of course, commercial banks will transmit the cost of capital to the back-end, that is, raise the interest rate of loans, but do they still allow enterprises to live? Enterprises say that I have to transmit the financial cost to the consumer end of the commodity, that is to say, the price increases, which also makes the people live?

Now, the international commodity prices will push up the cost of raw materials and eventually transmit to the CPI. The central bank says that I want to curb CPI, so increasing interest rates and tightening the money will push up the financial cost of enterprises, which will eventually lead to CPI. In this vicious circle, what will China's economy be like? The demand for corporate borrowing is bigger and bigger, the leverage is higher and higher, the downward pressure on the economy is bigger and bigger, the bank bad debts are increasing, the quality of the enterprises is getting worse and worse, and the loan interest rate of the banks is higher.

A large group of economists will jump out and say: it is not the wrong monetary policy, but because the quality of the business is getting worse and worse, and commercial banks need to increase the interest rate because they need to cover risks. Our question is: who is covering the risk of money market interest rate so soaring? Finance is always right and wrong is the real economy. This is one of the most important conclusions of the theory of financial capitalism, and this theory is popular in China. Whose fault is it?

Some people now say "breaking the rigid payment" and do not think that this is "financial marketization". In my view, this is destroying China. Finance And China's economy. Because the consequences of breaking the rigid countermeasures are: the people dare not invest, at least need higher profits to cover risks. What is the height of China's financial cost? Is there any profit for the enterprises? If that happens, what will China's economy be like? So our brain must be sober and not be "marketed". We should let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of financial resources, but should we act as a financial authority to play a better role instead of vice versa?

That's the problem. On the one hand, it is important to let the market play a decisive role in the financial allocation. On the other hand, it is necessary to tear down the compliance channels of financial flow and allow the "quasi financial institutions and quasi financial markets" to overflow. Is this a responsible attitude? Now it is to be cleaned up, but if it is not completely "closed down", then the need for survival will always stimulate these markets to take risks and operate irregularities. How much money do these markets need to dig out from the standard channels? How high is the cost of these funds flowing to the real economy? Is our financial department not distressed?

　　 money market The interest rate is still rising. When the commercial bank deposit rate cap is subject to "guidance", will such interest rate "distortion" not increase the "policy arbitrage" space? Will it not make money market speculation arbitrage make a big profit, but directly increase the financing of enterprises and directly destroy the capital market that serves the real economy? This is the concrete embodiment of our financial services for the real economy. What a terrible thing!

Look at the present China. Property investment and currency speculation have become the least risky ones. Investment Industrial investment, bond investment and equity investment have become big risks and low returns. Is that not a big problem? Shouldn't it be changed? Is it the wrong choice of the people? I think the financial institutions need to reflect on what role you should play. Do you play a better role in the government?

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