How Long Can The Dual Protection "Healthy Bull Market" Last?

This week, the stock market of the major developed countries went up all the way, of which the Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.99%, the London financial times 100 index edged up 0.98%, the Nikkei 225 index rose 2.44%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.8%. The global bond market is mixed. The yield of us 10 - year treasury bonds is down 8bp, the yield of China's 10 - year treasury bond is up to 2.69bp, and the 10 - year treasury bond futures price is up 1.03%.

In terms of exchange rate and commodities, the US dollar index dropped 0.99% to 100.7145 this week, and the RMB exchange rate depreciated from 0.11% to 6.8814 yuan / US dollar. Most of the world's commodities rose this week; domestic iron ore and rebar futures rose 6.63% and 3.72% respectively, while coking coal futures fell 2.69%; in the global commodity market, WTI crude oil futures rose 0.05% and COMEX gold futures rose 1.24%.

Seen from the global market, Tran universal Hinting at the impact of tax cuts, major global stock indexes and commodities will rise this week and the global bond market is mixed. China's bond market has eased the market nervousness after the central bank raised the reverse repo rate, and the spot price of treasury bond futures has changed. The factors that affect asset performance this week are:

(1) from the global fundamental level, the global economic data is still improving. The US employment market continued to tighten, and the number of jobless claims at the beginning of the week hit a 43 year low. On Thursday, Mr trump said that it would significantly reduce the corporate tax rate, and that the US stock market and commodities could be boosted.

(2) from the basic level of our country, the inflection point of economic L has passed; in January, the import and export volume was far ahead of expected, and the degree of import warming was even greater. In January, the PMI trend of China's new financial services industry was slowing but still at a relatively high level. It is worth mentioning that in January 2017, domestic heavy truck sales grew by 9%, an increase of 122% over the same period last year. The increase in heavy truck growth was mainly due to downstream finance, although the restriction policy made the housing market relatively cold, and the future economic growth or financial strength.

(3) from China policy On the face of it, President Liu Shiyu delivered an important speech at the national securities and futures supervision conference, saying that "capital market does not allow anyone to stir up trouble, stir up trouble and do whatever they want". For monetary policy, the central bank restarted the reverse repurchase after a week of reverse repurchase, but the reverse repo rate did not continue to adjust. Combined with the previous statement by the Central Bank Research Bureau, the central bank did not intend to raise interest rates too quickly.

(4) from the perspective of China's capital market performance, early market rumors will restart the repo to drive the yield up quickly, but the market sentiment has eased, and the bond market has returned to the level before the reverse repurchase rate increase.

Looking forward to the future, we maintain the view of "healthy bull" and "bond market" in the stock market.

(1) the bond market continues to "shake up the market". On the one hand, monetary policy tightens and tightens regulation. De-leveraging The fundamentals of the bond market are all bad, but on the other hand, the increase in the level of the bond market yields has implied multiple interest rates in the money market. The difference between the bond market yields and the central bank's reverse repo rate has reached a higher level in history.

(2) the stock market maintains "healthy cattle". For the domestic capital market, we believe that the economy is still going well, and has been showing the performance of the super market expectations. Die Jialiu's speech and the healthy development of the capital market are clear.

US side: Trump on Thursday met with us aviation executives, suggesting that tax cuts would be introduced. He said the US government will announce "big news on taxes" in the next two to three weeks. Trump also said he was "drastically lowering the corporate tax rate". Trump has long promised to reform the corporate and personal tax system in the US. Two weeks ago, when Trump met with manufacturing executives, he promised to cut the business tax rate to 15% to 20%.

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