Slow Bull Market: Break Through 3301 Or Re Open Intermediate Adjustment

With a year's cycle of observation, this year's rate will probably come out of the slow bull market. In other words, as long as we have enough patience to hold shares, we should have good returns at the end of the year. But the negation rule of philosophy tells us that the development trajectory of anything is not linear but spiral. Therefore, in the long term trend of slow down, moderate level adjustment is inevitable. If we are unwilling to accept the adjustment, we must avoid it as soon as possible before the adjustment comes. Therefore, it is particularly important to judge the timing and location of the adjustment.

Then, where is the timing and location of the adjustment? Market After breaking through the 3243 gap gap, the market has shown a cautious attitude before the high point of 3301 last year. We can interpret it as the failure of the main test panel yesterday. Why did it fail? Because there is no follow suit now. When the market is willing to follow the wind, it is when nerves are tight.

At this point, a normal adjustment may trigger a stampede in the market. At this point, stampede is very unfavorable to everyone in the market, whether it is the main body or small and medium-sized retail investors. Therefore, we also see that the adjustment in these days is proceeding in a very mild form. But it is obvious that the moderate adjustment is only a drop in the bucket, and can not solve the problem. The market still needs a wave of intermediate adjustment. Now that there are no conditions for intermediate adjustment, the adjustment can only be made at a more suitable time.

What kind of timing is appropriate? That's when the market sentiment starts to rise, so that the chips can be spanferred from high to low. So when the index breaks through the important juncture (for example, the 3301 point), it may be the time for market sentiment to turn from the current cold to warm. As for whether or not the upward trend will soar, I think it is unlikely that trees can grow to the sky forever. Therefore, after breaking through 3301 points, as long as the volume is enlarged, there may be any adjustment at any time. Because of this, I think there is still room for uplink at the moment. Once we break through 3301 points, we really need to be vigilant.

In terms of monetary policy, JP Morgan expects 2017. credit policy Tend to be neutral. CICC expects that monetary policy will gradually withdraw from monetary policy in 2017 and pay more attention to prevention and control of financial risks. The current CPI is relatively moderate. The central bank has little chance of raising interest rates in the near future. However, the growth target of M2 and total social financing in 2017 may be reduced from 13% last year to 12%, which is generally stable compared with last year's actual growth rate.

Liang Hong predicted that Market interest rate It will continue to grow, including interest rate corridors and Treasury yields. In 2017, the central bank will also raise the 7 day reverse repo rate by 20 basis points to 2.55%, and as the inflation continues, the long-term nominal GDP growth and return on investment will rise. Government risk prevention and financial deleveraging will continue in the second half of 2016: first, administrative supervision, including the improvement of MPA management and the improvement of a three party joint regulatory framework; and two, by deleveraging liquidity and capital prices.

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