China'S Foreign Trade Growth Rate In April Is High, And The "One Belt And One Way" Will Provide New Momentum For Trade Growth.

The Customs General Administration released data on trade in goods in April, showing that the total import and export volume of goods trade in China was 8 trillion and 420 billion yuan in the first April this year, an increase of 20.3% over the same period last year.

In April, China's total import and export volume was 2 trillion and 220 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2% over the same period, of which 1 trillion and 240 billion yuan was exported, an increase of 14.3% over the previous year, and an import of 979 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 18.6% over the same period last year.

In dollar terms, China's exports grew by 8% over the same period in April, and imports increased by 11.9% over the same period last year.

The two have dropped considerably over the previous month.

Meanwhile, the trade surplus in April has expanded to $38 billion 48 million.

With the improvement of the international economic situation, China's exports have maintained a good situation, and with the decline in commodity prices and other factors, imports have increased or narrowed.

With the continuous progress of China's economic structural reform, economic stability has been enhanced, laying a good economic foundation for China's balance of payments, which has also kept China's foreign exchange reserves basically stable.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the twenty-first Century business reporter that the growth rate of foreign trade in April is still at a high level, and the growth rate in the short term is down to normal.

"China's foreign trade will be a zigzag wave trend over a long period of time: there will be a callback in the first one or two months.

As a whole, the stabilization of foreign trade is still a matter of probability. The median line of this year's foreign trade will fluctuate.

Customs data released in May 8th showed that China's imports and exports grew by 16.2% over the same period in April, down 8 percentage points from March's growth rate. The growth rate of imports and exports was 7.8 percentage points and 8 percentage points respectively.

According to the analysis, with the volume and price of commodities falling and the weakening of domestic economic rebound weakened, the growth rate of China's imports continued to decline. The decline of seasonal fluctuations in the beginning of the year and the fall in the growth of us commodity consumption also led to a slowdown in export growth.

On the whole, China's imports and exports are already showing signs of stabilization. The annual foreign trade is expected to continue the trend of a zigzag wave rising in the middle line.

China's trade with other countries along the belt and road has increased rapidly, but this trade accounts for only about 1/4 of China's total trade volume. With the deepening of economic and trade cooperation between China and the countries along the line, it is expected to further stimulate trade potential of China and the countries along the belt and Road, so as to provide new growth momentum for China's foreign trade.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in May 8th, the total value of China's imports and exports in April was 2 trillion and 220 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2%.

Among them, exports were 1 trillion and 240 billion yuan, an increase of 14.3%; imports of 979 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 18.6%; trade surplus of 262 billion 300 million yuan, an expansion of 0.6%.

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Overall, it continued the warm-up and rapid growth since the second half of last year. However, in April, both imports and exports showed a growth rate of callback: compared with March, the export growth rate dropped by 8 percentage points, and imports dropped 7.8 percentage points.

This decline has been reflected in the previous leading indicators: China's foreign trade export pilot index ended 4 consecutive months of rising trend in March. The newly released PMI in April also fell for the first time in recent years, including new orders, new export orders and hand in orders index, which fell by 1, 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points respectively over the previous month.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told the twenty-first Century business reporter that the growth rate of foreign trade in April is still at a high level, and the growth rate in the short term is down to normal.

"China's foreign trade will be a zigzag wave trend over a long period of time: there will be a callback in the first one or two months.

As a whole, the stabilization of foreign trade is still a matter of probability. The median line of this year's foreign trade will fluctuate.

In terms of imports, Bai Ming said that in the first two months, there has been a sharp correction in commodity prices, and imports have also declined. With the slowing down of China's overall economic rebound, import growth has stepped back.

In April, the purchasing price index of raw materials dropped by 7.5 percentage points to 51.8%, the first time it has dropped to 52% since August last year.

With the end of replenishment, imports of iron ore, oil and other commodities also began to decline, and iron ore, copper and crude oil imports reached the lowest level in the year.

From the data point of view, 82 million 230 thousand tons of iron ore imported in April, the growth rate dropped 13.4 percentage points from the previous month, the import volume (in US dollar) growth rate dropped by 45.7 points, the import crude oil 34 million 390 thousand tons, the growth rate dropped 13.9 points, the import amount dropped 49.1 points, the import steel 1 million 80 thousand tons, the growth rate dropped 4.2 points, and the import amount also dropped by 1.3 points.

Liu Xuezhi, senior researcher at Bank of communications Jin Yan Research Center, told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report that the growth rate of imports in the future may continue to decline.

"In dollar terms, imports have been higher than two digits for 4 consecutive months, but import growth since February has been 38.1%, 20.3%, 11.9%, showing a gradual downward trend. It is estimated that the growth rate of imports in the future may drop to single figures."

Liu Xuezhi said that in April, the composite index of commodity prices dropped to around 420 at the end of the month, and the price lifting effect on import growth would be weakened.

After the two quarter, the momentum of economic recovery may weaken, and the replenishment cycle of enterprises is coming to an end. The import volume of major imports is therefore hard to sustain.

In addition, due to the narrowing of the negative growth rate of imports after the two quarter of last year, the low base effect will also weaken.

The sharp drop in export growth is more like a technical adjustment.

Bai Ming pointed out that the decline in export growth and the overall environment of the international market do not match. Generally speaking, the international market is still good, and the export growth of various countries is still good.

He said that today's rebound in foreign trade is a slap in the face. We need to rely on industrial upgrading, foreign trade pformation and resonance in the international market.

The macro group of Xingye Securities believes that the Spring Festival factors and the low base of the same period last year have produced a significant disturbance on the export data of the first quarter. With the attenuation of the temporary factors in the first quarter, the export growth rate also began to fall. In addition, the impact of exports on the US terminal merchandise consumption is more obvious. Since March, the growth rate of us commodity consumption has obviously dropped, which has caused a certain drag on China's commodity exports.

On the other hand, the growth of trade in the surrounding areas may be bringing alternative pressure to China's exports.

Bai Ming said that with the warm-up of the external environment since the beginning of the year, the growth of exports in Vietnam, South Korea and other regions was very fast. Although China's exports were warming up, they did not have the advantage compared with those regions, and some countries and regions had a warmer recovery than China.

Looking forward to the future, Liu Xuezhi said that the overall recovery of the global economy will still provide a basis for the revival of foreign trade: the United States unveiled the largest tax reduction plan ever to boost market confidence, and the euro zone PMI has recently reached a six year high.

French presidential election marks the victory of black dragon, the black swan event in Europe and the negative impact of trade protectionism on the international market is expected to weaken.

Against this background, China's foreign trade pilot index rose to 40.7% in April, and the turnover of the Canton Fair has just risen by 6.9%. China's shipping prosperity index and confidence index have increased. Liu Xuezhi said that this indicates that there is a certain degree of sustainability in export warming, and that the growth trend of foreign trade in the two quarter is expected to remain.

According to different countries, in April, China made a survey of the United States, the European Union and Japan.

The growth rates were 11.7%, 4% and 13.2% respectively, while the export growth rates to Russia, India and Brazil were 18.7%, 25% and 22.3% respectively.

Liu Xuezhi said that the demand for economic growth in emerging market countries has increased, and China's trade with these countries has continued to grow rapidly.

It is worth noting that China's foreign trade along the belt and road has maintained fairly good development.

The latest data show that in 1-4 months, the total import and export value of China and ASEAN increased by 24.2% over the same period last year. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and China's trade grew by 30.1%, 27.4%, 30.6% and 23.3% respectively, while trade between China and South Africa increased by 31.5% over the same period last year.

In 2016, the trade volume between China and the countries along the border was 6 trillion and 300 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.6%.

Of which, exports were 3 trillion and 800 billion yuan, an increase of 0.7%, and imports of 2 trillion and 400 billion yuan, an increase of 0.5%.

After entering the 2017, trade between China and the countries along the line accelerated significantly.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce in late April, the total trade volume of bilateral goods between China and the "one belt along the way" has exceeded 16553 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 26.2% over the same period last year.

Among them, China exported 937 billion 600 million yuan to the countries along the border, an increase of 15.8% over the same period last year, accounting for 28.2% of China's total exports over the same period. China has imported 717 billion 700 million yuan from the countries along the border, an increase of 42.9% over the same period last year, accounting for 25% of China's total imports over the same period.

Bai Ming said that the growth rate of trade between China and the countries along the "belt and road" is indeed very fast, but the base is still not high.

The population of the countries along the "one belt and one road" account for almost half of the world's population, but accounts for only about 1/4 of our total foreign trade. These areas are populous and have great "need" potential. At present, due to the level of economic development, they do not become actual "demand", but with the strengthening of cooperation along the belt, many "needs" have the chance to become "demand", thus providing new growth momentum and potential for China's foreign trade.

Bai Ming said that under the backdrop of the revival of the developed countries, the rise of trade protectionism and the trend of anti globalization, the "one belt and one way" is an important direction for China's foreign trade to open up new battlefields and open new space.

Zhong Feiteng, director of the Research Office of the great power relations between the Asia Pacific and Global Strategy Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the vast majority of the countries along the "one belt and one road" level are lower than China, and their consensus is to develop the economy and raise incomes.

China is the largest manufacturing trading country in the world. Its industrial system is perfect and its trade is well-developed. Its per capita income is equal to half of China's countries. It is also an important target country for industrial pfer and productivity cooperation. By strengthening the manufacturing trade with the countries along the border, it is expected to create a new triangular trade cycle mechanism.

In fact, China is accelerating the upgrading of trade facilitation along the "one belt along the way": in March this year, the fifth round of negotiations on the China Maldives FTA has made positive progress; the twenty-eighth meeting of the China Philippines joint economic and Trade Commission held the important economic and trade consultation mechanism which has been suspended for six years; on April 19-21, the third round of negotiations on economic and trade cooperation between China and Eurasian Economic Union has also achieved some results.

China released by the Ministry of Commerce in May 4th

According to the report of the situation report (spring 2017), Chinese enterprises have built 56 economic and trade cooperation zones in 20 countries along the "one belt and one road" area, covering many fields.

According to the report, China is actively promoting trade with countries along the road along the road, expanding mutual market opening, using export credit, export credit insurance and other policies to support the export of large complete sets of equipment, while actively expanding imports from countries along the border, developing cross-border e-commerce, and supporting orderly development in China and Europe.

China is about to hold the "one belt and one way" International Cooperation Summit Forum in Beijing.

This is the first international forum that China has held for the first time on the theme of "one belt and one road" construction. It is also China's efforts and contributions to jointly build the community of human destiny after China's G20 summit in Hangzhou.

Sun Jiwen, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said recently that the Ministry of Commerce will host a parallel theme meeting on promoting trade liberalization during the summit forum, focusing on issues such as trade facilitation, promoting two-way investment, trade and sustainable development, and further promoting economic cooperation between China and the "one belt along the way".

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