New Year Cotton Market Bearish Atmosphere Caused Strong Decline In Zheng Cotton

In June, lint cotton was moderately warm in the early days, and all the way down in the middle and late days. As of June 30th, the lint price of 3128B was 15930 yuan / ton, which was 0.74% lower than that of 16048 yuan / ton in June 1st.

Zheng cotton futures rose slightly in early June, opening the down channel in mid and late June 30th. As of June 30th, the 1709 settlement price of zhengmian main contract was 14935 yuan / ton, down 3.95% compared with the May 31st settlement price of 15550 yuan / ton.

The increase of cotton planting area in the world is obvious, the rising trend is good, the expected high yield is strong, and the new year cotton market has a strong atmosphere.

Due to the excellent crop growth rate in the United States, the United States as the world's main cotton producer is expected to increase its production significantly. According to the report released by the US Department of agriculture in June 30th, the sown area of US cotton in 2017 was 12 million 50 thousand acres, an increase of 20% over the same period last year.

According to statistics of India Cotton Association, as cotton yield is better than other crops, cotton growers have been expanded. As of June 23rd, cotton planting area in India reached 37 million 50 thousand mu, an increase of 30% over the same period last year.

Due to the obvious benefit of cotton planting in China, according to the national cotton real sown area survey report released by the national cotton market monitoring system, in 2017, the national cotton sowing area was 47 million 573 thousand mu, an increase of 3 million 728 thousand mu compared with the same period, an increase of 8.5%.

Xinjiang was protected by the price of national policy. In 2017, the sowing area of Xinjiang cotton was 31 million 629 thousand mu, up 8.9% compared to the same period, and the total output of Xinjiang was 4 million 191 thousand and 300 tons, up 3.4% compared to the same period.

Cotton production is expected to be strong in the new year. Cotton fell for 10 consecutive months during the ICE period. Zheng cotton was close to a 15000 yuan / ton mark.

In the 17 year, the reserve cotton rotation began in March 6th, and the volume of listing was stable at about 30 thousand tons per day. In June, the domestic high grade cotton market still had a significant gap. All the new cotton products sold in the reserve cotton were sold, and the paction rate of the national reserve real estate cotton was still not high.

In June, the output of Xinjiang cotton dropped from around 15 thousand tons per day to 10 thousand tons in the beginning of the month. In the month, the output of cotton increased from bad to worse in the month, and the turnover was gradually low. At the end of the month, the cotton turnover rate was around 50%.

Cotton prices fell during the month, and cotton prices continued to decline. The price of cotton reserves continued to drop at a low price. According to the round data, the reserve price of cotton released in June 26th was down by 748 yuan / ton compared with the base price announced in May 27th, although it has great attraction for textile enterprises, but the market is not optimistic.

As of June 30th, a total of 2 million 469 thousand and 400 tons had been planned to go out of the warehouse, and 1 million 694 thousand and 600 tons of accumulated warehouses were sold. The turnover rate was 68.62%. The average price was 14958 yuan / ton, and the 3128 price was 15775 yuan / ton. The highest price was 16780 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 12810 yuan / ton.

Commodity cotton turnover inventory, entered the tradition in May.

However, cotton enterprises generally worry about the supply of quality resources at the later stage of the year. The overall procurement is positive, especially for Xinjiang cotton with better quality.

Although the volume of cotton reserves has been maintained at a high level of over 400 thousand tons, the turnover of cotton turnover in the whole country has dropped sharply.

According to the inventory survey of 193 warehouse members in 18 provinces and municipalities in China, the total inventory of cotton turnover in the whole country was about 1 million 158 thousand and 800 tons by the end of May, representing a decrease of 317 thousand and 600 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 21.5%.

The turnover of commodity cotton in the mainland is 525 thousand and 400 tons, a decrease of 54 thousand and 200 tons, including 415 thousand and 800 tons of Xinjiang cotton, 55 thousand and 100 tons of imported cotton and 54 thousand and 500 tons of real estate cotton.

The turnover of commodity cotton in Xinjiang area is 633 thousand and 400 tons, and the reduction is 263 thousand and 400 tons.

In terms of imports, the turnover rate of cotton reserves continued to fall in May, and cotton imports also declined for two consecutive months, but they still grew year on year.

According to customs statistics, in May 2017, the number of cotton imports in China was 85 thousand and 400 tons, a decrease of 18.5%, an increase of 9.2% over the same period last year. The average import price was 1932 US dollars / ton, up 74 US dollars compared with April, or 3.9%, up 17.6% over the same period last year.

In the first 9 months of 2016/17, 864 thousand and 500 tons were imported, an increase of 19.6% over the same period last year.

In the first 5 months of 2017, it imported 565 thousand and 200 tons, an increase of 58.1% over the same period last year.

Downstream cotton yarn market entered the off-season, domestic

In the doldrums, however, the spot price of cotton was limited, and the profit was squeezed earlier. Some manufacturers tried to raise their prices after a slight rise in cotton prices at the beginning of the month, but were finally wiped out by cotton production expectations.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, by June 30th, the average price of 21S single yarn with high quality knitted fabrics was 23650 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.32%, an increase of 17.86% over the same period last year.

In June, the market of cotton yarn was sluggish in the market, and the demand was weak. The yarn and cloth production and sales rate in the downstream market continued to decline from last month, and the stock of products continued to increase slightly. Meanwhile, the price of domestic and foreign yarn kept shrinking, and the support for cotton prices was weak.

From the perspective of the textile industry, the export situation of textile and clothing remained strong in May, and domestic demand growth slowed down.

In May 2017, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $23 billion 405 million, a growth of 8.30% over the same period, down 0.47% from the same period last year.

Among them, textile exports amounted to US $10 billion 406 million, an increase of 1.97% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $13 billion, down 2.34% from the same period last year.

The domestic demand growth slowed down. In May, the retail sales of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles were 115 billion 900 million yuan, an increase of 8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down.

In 1-5, retail sales of units above Designated Size reached 58977 billion yuan, up 8.5% from the same period last year.

The retail sales of needle textiles reached 594 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last year.

In June 2017, the commodity supply and demand index (BCI) of the business community was -0.08, which rose by 0.07%, reflecting the contraction of the manufacturing economy last month and the smooth operation of the economy.

The growth of the cotton growing area is obvious, and the high yield is expected to be strong. The cotton market in the new year is full of empty air, resulting in a sharp fall in Zheng cotton and a continuous decline in cotton spot.

The downstream cotton yarn market has entered the off-season, and the production and marketing rate has continued to decline, which is expected to have a weak supporting role for cotton prices in July.

In the domestic market, although the domestic cotton planting area has been improved, the domestic cotton output is less than consumption. The domestic cotton price is not only affected by the international cotton price, but also depends on the domestic policies such as the rotation of cotton reserves and the change of import quotas.

At present, the domestic market as a whole is stable, and the risk of continuous decline of cotton market in national storage cotton inventory stage is relatively small. It is expected that the lint will run steadily in July, and the price will run between 15800-16000 yuan / ton.

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