The Price Of Polyester Filament Is Rising Sharply, Which Attracts CCTV Attention. After September, Will PTA Price Fall?

In August 29th, CCTV's 2 set of "economic information network" program focused on the price inflation of PTA.

The production line of Tung Kun group, the largest polyester filament production enterprise in China, is running at full capacity, and trucks from all over the country are pulling goods.

The head of the enterprise said that the polyester filament was selling well in the near future, and the stock in the warehouse is at the lowest level in history, which is only enough to sell for 5 days.

And in less than 1 months, the price has risen by more than 13.5%.

Even so, the supply is still in short supply.

Tax per ton

July 19th 10181 yuan

August 17th 11558 yuan

The driver who came to the factory to pull the goods said that he would pull the goods one by one in an average of 3 days.

Prices are rising and sales are high.

Although the volume and price of the products increased, profits fell sharply.

The reason for the analysis is: the price of the main raw materials is increasing.

July 19th 6015 yuan / ton

August 17th 8300 yuan / ton

Rose 2285 yuan, or nearly 40%

Yang Jianfei, deputy director of new Feng Ming, once said that the raising price of polyester filament is not a casual and unreasonable price increase, but a normal raise on the basis of rising cost.

Tong Jun, the chief executive of Tung Kun, once pointed out in the media interview that the demand for polyester filament is very strong this year. Tong Kun is producing 365 days without rest. The capacity utilization rate is 100%, and its sales volume has increased from 100% last year to 79%.

"Specifically to the extent of price increases, we also take full account of the downstream bearing, after all, we have many loyal old customers, so we sacrificed more than 800 yuan of room for growth."

Zhou Jun said.

Founder Li Yonglei, chief analyst of Fangzheng securities, said that by the end of this year, the new capacity of PTA was completely gone. Influenced by various downstream clothing sales platforms, demand has increased rapidly, while the supply side has not increased. Therefore, the overall market situation of PTA has improved.

Analysis of the industry, the recent RMB exchange rate fluctuations, as well as

The rise in import prices of PX has led to higher PTA prices.

China Chemical Fiber Association polyester filament Specialized Committee has said that the international oil price center of gravity gradually lifted, in July 3rd, the US oil once broke the 75 U.S. dollar mark, hit a new high since November 2014; Asian PX price rose from June 22nd 927.67~946.67 US dollars / ton to August 3rd 1080.67~1099.67 US dollars / ton, and PX depended heavily on imports. Under the devaluation of RMB, its import cost rose sharply, and promoted the domestic PTA price to rise rapidly; the second major raw materials and ethylene glycol import dependence degree were relatively high, and the RMB continued to depreciate, which means that the import cost continued to rise.

Can downstream businesses still get enough?

PTA belongs to the link of "crude oil fuel oil, naphtha aromatics -PTA- polyester spinning and weaving, garment" chain.

Can PTA's prices rise and can downstream businesses survive?

In August 4th, the Tongxiang chamber of Commerce issued a proposal to suspend production, announcing that the production and operation of warp knitting enterprises had been seriously affected because of the unreasonable unreasonable increase in the prices of raw materials. Therefore, after the inventory of raw materials was finished, the 39 warp knitting enterprises of the chamber of Commerce would suspend production and leave, and boycott the unreasonable price increase of raw materials.

Previous analysis has revealed that the demand for warp knitting industry accounts for only 10% of the production of polyester filament. 90% of the demand is concentrated in knitted, woolen and industrial yarn industries. Even if the warp knitting industry is shut down, the demand for polyester filament will only be 10%, which will hardly lead to a decline in the price of polyester filament yarn.

The CCTV reporting group went to Zhejiang, where intensive enterprises were concentrated, and visited a number of enterprises, and found that there was no large-scale production shutdown. However, some enterprises began to cut production.

Xu Yingzhong, deputy director of the CMC, said that from the current situation, we did not cause the company to suspend production or shut down because of the appeal. There were more than 200 enterprises related to the price of polyester yarn, and some enterprises were considering shutting down production.

Usually, warp knitting enterprises stock is 7~15 days, and many enterprises are buying after orders.

When signing the order, the price of polyester filament is at a low point. When purchasing, the price rises, the profits of the enterprise are compressed, and some even appear a loss.

Xu Yingzhong said: profit margins must be a bit of a shock, and sales price and cost price have even reversed.

A person in charge of an enterprise in Haining, Zhejiang, said: the order has just been placed, and then the raw material is bought, and the cloth has not been woven yet.

Generally speaking, every ton of cloth can earn 2000~3000 yuan if it is made of white cloth. Now the price has increased by nearly 2000 yuan / ton in 1 months, and 40%, the downstream can not be done.

Many people in charge of warp knitting enterprises said that at present,

Gray cloth enterprises have not made money, and if the price of raw materials continues to rise, the next step is to increase the price of grey cloth is an inevitable trend.

"Orders will be more cautious.

Within a certain range, the price of grey cloth can remain unchanged; if it exceeds the price range, the price will be raised appropriately.

In Haining, Xu village, home textile product distribution center, curtain dealers said that the upstream products increased in price, and the pressure on downstream sales increased, especially those with many polyester fabrics, such as curtains, pillowcases, bathing suits, sportswear and other textiles.

The price of grey cloth is rising, and the finished products will go up.

Some dealers said that the price was only a little higher, and now the rice cloth has increased by 2~3 yuan per meter, and the wholesale profit is very thin.

Another dealer said that because he was afraid that customers would run away, he would not dare to raise prices easily, but he could only try to carry them again.

PTA behind the potential

In August 28th, the PTA futures price of 1809 was 9244 yuan / ton, up 55% compared with July 19th.

Nevertheless, the industry analysis: this round of rapid rise in chemical raw materials prices will not last too long.

The closing price in August 28th, PTA1901 contract price of 7924 yuan / ton, lower than the September 2018 delivery price of about 1000 yuan, after September, PTA price will fall.

Li Yonglei, principal analyst of Founder Securities, said: prices will be relatively strong before September, and inventory is relatively low. The whole supply and demand side is relatively good, and there is no basis for a sharp fall.

As for whether it will rise or not, it has reached a relatively high position.