Monthly Analysis Of Supply And Demand Situation Of Bulk Agricultural Products In July 2018 (Cotton Related Part)

Sufficient cotton reserves have been put into operation, the state has issued 800 thousand tons of cotton import quotas, the annual supply and demand pattern is loose, and Sino US trade disputes have affected market confidence.

The global cotton supply is tight in the new year, and there is little room for price reduction in the short term.

[Characteristics]

Cotton prices fell at home and abroad.

[trend]

Sufficient supply, the state issued 800 thousand tons of cotton import quotas, the annual supply and demand pattern is loose, Sino US trade disputes affect market confidence, and it is expected that domestic cotton prices will be down in the near future.

The global cotton supply is tight in the new year, and there is little room for price reduction in the short term.

[details]

In July, Sino US trade frictions escalated, domestic cotton supply was adequate, textile enterprises' willingness to wait and see increased, and domestic cotton prices fell.

According to the purchasing intention survey of China cotton industry inventory survey report, 67.6% of enterprises preparing raw materials this month accounted for 0.4 percentage points lower, 32.4% of the wait-and-see attitude, and 1.6 percentage points higher than the annulus.

As of July 30th, the cumulative turnover of cotton reserves totaled 1 million 754 thousand and 200 tons, with a turnover rate of 59.65%.

Domestic leather sales of 16 cotton were slower than before. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, as of July 27th, the national cotton sales rate was 87.3%, down 6.5 percentage points year-on-year.

800 thousand tonnes of national issuance

Import quotas provide adequate domestic cotton supply.

In July, the average monthly price of domestic 3128B cotton was 16210 yuan per ton, down 1.5%, up 2% from the same period last year.

The monthly settlement price of Zheng cotton futures contract (CF901) is 17130 yuan per ton, up 2.3% compared with the same month, up 16.9% from the same month.

(two) international cotton prices are decreasing. In early July, Sino US trade friction led to market anxiety and ICE cotton prices fell.

In the second half of the year, the US Department of agriculture sharply reduced the next year's US cotton output and the end of the global inventory, and the main cotton producing areas in the United States, such as drought in Dezhou, and other factors, ICE cotton prices rebounded.

In July, the average monthly price of Cotlook A index (equivalent to domestic grade 3128B cotton) was 96.18 cents per pound, down 1.6%, up 14.4% from the same period last year.

(three) the cotton price difference between inside and outside has narrowed slightly. The Cotlook A index (equivalent to domestic 3128B grade cotton) is equivalent to RMB 13695 yuan per ton, 2515 yuan lower than that of China's cotton price index (CC Index) 3128B class, and the price difference narrowed by 219 yuan from last month.

The import cotton price index (FC Index) M class (equivalent to domestic 3128B grade cotton) average monthly price 97.86 cents per pound, 1% customs duty down to the after tax price of 15681 yuan per ton, 529 yuan lower than the domestic price, the price difference narrowed by 215 yuan last month, the sliding tax rate is 16387 yuan per ton, the price is 177 yuan higher than the domestic price, the price difference expanded 136 yuan over last month.

(four) the yarn price decreased slightly compared with the ratio of spinning. According to the National Bureau of statistics, China's spinning volume was 3 million 106 thousand tons in June, down 0.8% from the same period last year.

In the month of 1-6, China's cumulative spinning volume was 16 million 738 thousand tons, up 1.4% over the same period.

The price of yarn has declined slightly due to the decline in raw material prices.

In July, the average price of the main representative varieties of 32 Cotton Combed Yarns was 24136 yuan per ton, down 0.7%, up 4% from the same period last year.

(five) ICAC increased the world's cotton production and consumption. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted in July that the global cotton production in 2018/19 increased by 190 thousand tons to 25 million 940 thousand tons from last month, of which Brazil increased 360 thousand tons, China reduced 50 thousand tons, India reduced 120 thousand tons, and increased global cotton consumption 700 thousand to 27 million 420 thousand tons, of which China increased 610 thousand tons; trade volume increased 130 thousand tons to 9 million 320 thousand tons; the end of the world inventory was increased from 130 thousand tons to 130 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio of the whole world except China was also.

(six) local dynamics. When Xinjiang cotton enters the flowering and boll stage, most cotton areas are topped off, which is delayed for 5-15 days compared with the same period in the past year. The growth rate is less than that of last year.

The main cotton producing areas in Hebei are abundant in light and heat. Due to the deviation of cotton seedling growth in early stage, the average growth rate of cotton is still not as good as that of the whole year.

The disease is more serious than the whole year, and the insect pest is lighter than the whole year.

The meteorological conditions in Hubei are generally suitable for cotton growth. Most cotton fields are in the buds stage, and the overall growth is good.

During the bud stage of cotton in Jiangxi, Maria's typhoon caused some lodging of cotton plants and no serious diseases and insect pests occurred.

There is no rainfall in Gansu cotton area this month, the temperature is suitable for cotton growth, and some cotton fields wilt occur sporadically.

Short term domestic cotton prices are expected to maintain a downward trend, and international cotton prices will continue to oscillate with limited downlink space.

From the supply point of view, the current cotton reserves have been put into operation smoothly. Up to July 30th, the total turnover of cotton reserves has reached 1 million 754 thousand and 200 tons, with a turnover rate of 59.65%.

The supply of commercial cotton is adequate, and the sale of lint is slower than before. The national cotton market monitoring system data, as of July 27th,

Sales rate was 87.3%, down 6.5 percentage points over the same period last year.

The state has issued an additional quota of 800 thousand tons of cotton imports. The demand for cotton imports has been released after the recent quota issuance. India cotton and Australia cotton are available, and domestic cotton supply is generally adequate.

From the perspective of demand, the order situation of textile enterprises has improved steadily, but it has been imported.

Impact, cotton demand has not improved significantly in the short term.

Domestic cotton prices are expected to maintain a downward trend in the near future.

The pattern of global cotton production and marketing in 2017/18 is basically determined. The global cotton supply is tight next year, and there is little room for price reduction in the short term.