The Analysis Of The China Textile Alliance Data Came Out: How Did The Textile Industry Perform In The First Three Quarters?

Since 2018,

The market demand is relatively strong.

Smooth operation.

Looking forward to the whole year, the textile industry is expected to maintain steady operation under the support of domestic demand consumption and pformation. However, a series of external pressures such as cost and environmental protection still need to be overcome. Trade friction needs to be properly dealt with, and the task of speeding up the development of high quality development and enhancing risk tolerance is intensified.

Market sales increase rapidly, domestic demand and consumption contribute significantly.

The domestic and new markets are also accelerating at the same time.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of 2018, the per capita disposable income of our residents increased by 6.6% in real terms, and the consumption expenditure increased by 6.3% in real terms, which was faster than the per capita GDP6.2% growth rate. The contribution rate of consumption increased to 78%, which is closely related to the people's livelihood.

The traditional format of textile and clothing sales is better than that of last year, 1~9 months above the national quota.

The retail sales of needle textiles increased by 8.9% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year, which is at a relatively high level in the past three years.

The emerging industry maintained rapid growth, and the retail sales of the national online clothing category increased by 23.3% year-on-year, up from 4.1 percentage points in the same period of the previous year.

Fig. 1: domestic sales growth of textile industry

(source: National Bureau of Statistics)

Export markets continue to pick up.

According to the customs express data, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China (excluding 94 chapters) in 1~9 months was 207 billion 770 million US dollars, up 4.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 3.7 percentage points over the same period last year, which is 1.3 percentage points faster than that in the first half of this year.

From the point of view of product mix, textile competitiveness is stable, export volume grew by 10.5% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 7.6 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and the proportion of total exports increased to 43%. Clothing was affected by factors such as high manufacturing costs, orders, investment pfer and other factors, and export pressure was greater. 1~9 export volume increased by only 0.6% over the same period last year.

Separately, the export volume of textiles, raw materials and textiles and clothing in the US, EU and Japan increased by 8.5%, 3.4% and 4.8%, respectively. The export growth rate to the US increased by 9.1 percentage points over the same period last year. The export market of Vietnam, Turkey and Indonesia along the "one belt and one road" market grew well, and the exports increased by 30%, 5.7% and 21.6%, respectively.

Figure 2: export growth of textiles and garments

(source: China Customs)

Steady improvement in quality and efficiency and effectiveness of supply side reform

Economic benefits continued to improve.

In 1~9 months, 36 thousand Textile Enterprises above Designated Size reached 4 trillion and 219 billion 760 million yuan in total business revenue, an increase of 4.2% over the same period last year. The growth rate slowed by 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year, but increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with the first half of this year. The total profit reached 198 billion 80 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year, while the growth rate slowed down 3.5 percentage points over the same period last year, but it was 4.7 percentage points higher than that in the first half of this year.

From the perspective of the industrial chain structure, the efficiency of the chemical fiber industry is stable at a higher level due to the increase of industrial concentration and the extension of large enterprises to the upstream refining and refining links. The total business revenue and profit of 1~9 increased by 14.4% and 22.3% respectively over the same period, which respectively promoted the 2 and 3.2 percentage points of the textile industry's main business revenue and profit growth.

Fig. 3: main business revenue and profit growth of textile sub sectors

(source: National Bureau of Statistics)

The quality of operation is relatively stable.

In 1~9 months, the sales profit rate of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, the total assets turnover rate was 1.3 times / year, and the three fee ratio was 6.9%, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year.

Production keeps slow growth and investment growth continues to pick up.

Production capacity has been maintained at a relatively high level and production growth has slowed down.

1~9 months, textile industry and

Capacity utilization rates were 80.6% and 82%, respectively, which were higher than 76.6% of the national industry.

In 1~9 months, the industrial added value of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 2.9% over the same period last year, 2 percentage points slower than the same period last year, but 0.1 percentage points faster than the first half of this year.

The industrial chain terminal production growth is relatively stable, and the industrial added value of clothing, home textiles and industrial textiles industry increased by 4.6%, 4.9% and 8.4%, respectively. The growth of capital and technology intensive industries increased rapidly, and the added value of chemical fiber industry increased 8.2%, up 2.8 percentage points from the same period last year. The industrial added value of textile machinery industry increased by 12.5% over the same period last year, reflecting the steady improvement of the competitiveness of the domestic equipment market.

Investment growth rebounded month by month.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the total investment in fixed assets in textile industry increased by 5.8% over the same period last month, down 0.4 percentage points from the same period last year, but 9.1 and 4.5 percentage points respectively higher than the first quarter of this year and the first half of this year. 1~9

In terms of industry, the growth rate of textile industry (including spinning, weaving, dyeing and finishing, knitting, home textiles, industrial use) increased by 5.1 percentage points to 5.9% in the first half of the year, and 31.9% in the chemical fiber industry compared with the same period last year, and maintained a rapid growth for 6 consecutive months, while clothing industry investment decreased by 1.6% over the same period last year.

Macroeconomic environment is generally stable and downside risks should not be ignored.

Looking forward to the future, the world economy will still be on the recovery track. However, the negative impact of risk factors on global economic growth, such as the increase in interest rate, liquidity contraction and aggravation of US trade protectionism, will gradually appear. The latest report released in IMF10 will reduce the forecast value of global economic growth in 2019 from 3.9% to 3.7%, and the growth of international market demand is slowing down.

Under the influence of the external environment, the pressure of China's macro-economic operation will increase, but the trend of steady development will not change fundamentally. The state's efforts to stabilize employment, and the income and consumption level of residents will move towards a well-off society in an all-round way, all of which will support the continuous growth of the textile and clothing domestic demand market and become a driving force.

The absolute main force of development.

Sino US trade frictions are escalating. Although the direct negative impact of the US tax increase measures on textile industry is very small at the present stage, the uncertainty of the trade environment has increased, increasing the worries of international buyers and domestic production enterprises.

In addition, factors such as rising factor costs, increasing environmental pressure, financing difficulties and financing will continue to affect the long-term operation of the industry, and textile enterprises still need to strengthen their response.

For the whole year of 2018,

The current smooth running trend will continue, and the main operational indicators will basically maintain the current growth level.

In 2019, the domestic and foreign market environment of China's textile industry has changed steadily. The pressure of the textile industry will increase compared with this year. The uncertainty of export situation is enhanced, and the internal demand of the industry to promote high quality development is more urgent. We must focus on improving production efficiency and wind risk ability, so as to maintain a steady development trend.