The Blue Book Of The Academy Of Social Sciences Predicts The Employment Situation In 2019. What Trend Changes Do The Textile Industry Employ?

The new blue book on social development published recently by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the "blue book") focuses on the interpretation and analysis of the trend of employment in the current analysis and prediction of the current social situation in China in 2018 and 2019. Accordingly, the reporter made an understanding of the employment trend of the textile industry.


1 the overall stability of the textile and employment situation


The blue book pointed out that in 2018, China's national economy was running smoothly and the employment situation in the whole country remained stable. At the same time, the employment structure continues to optimize, and the number of employed personnel in cultural and new industries is growing earlier than that in information spanmission, software and information technology service industries. Under the influence of external trade friction, the traditional labor-intensive industries such as toys, textiles and clothing, leather products and so on have greater employment pressure.


China Textile Industry Federation responsible person said that in 2018, the textile industry maintained a smooth running tone, and the employment situation remained stable.


In terms of talent supply, the social blue book shows that in the first 3 quarters of 2018, the total number of migrant labors in rural areas was 181 million 350 thousand, an increase of 1 million 660 thousand over the same period last year, an increase of 0.9%. In 2018, the number of newly graduated university graduates exceeded 8 million for the first time, reaching a high of 8 million 200 thousand.


In terms of talent demand, the employment situation in China remained stable throughout 2018, and the scale of urban employment continued to expand. In the first 3 quarters, 11 million 70 thousand new jobs were added to urban areas. The employment situation of college graduates remained stable and stable. According to the whole year's situation, in July 2018, the unemployment rate of college graduates increased, but then the monthly unemployment rate decreased. In September 2018, the unemployment rate of young people aged 20~24 or above dropped 2.4 percentage points year-on-year.


Under the background of talent supply and demand, the total labor resources in the textile industry remained stable, while the employment rate of textile graduates in Colleges and universities remained stable.


According to the relevant person in charge of recruitment and Employment Department of Tianjin University of Technology, the employment situation of graduates in 2018 was flat, and the professional employment rate of textile engineering, nonwoven materials and engineering, light chemical engineering and so on reached 100%, and the professional employment rate of materials science and engineering, clothing design and engineering, clothing and costume design reached over 90%.


In the interview, the reporter learned that the employment rate of textile specialty graduates from Wuhan Textile University and Xi'an Polytechnic University was unchanged from last year, and the employment rate of graduates of fashion specialty in Beijing Institute Of Fashion Technology was better than in previous years.


2 structural adjustment spawned new demand for talents.


The blue book points out that from the macro level, the basic characteristics of the pressure on the total amount of employment and the structural contradictions in employment will not change. At the same time, it will also face some new challenges and problems. It is mainly due to the extensive and profound influence of the profound adjustment of population structure, the uncertainty of the world economic structure and external economic environment, the new format and the spanformation of new technologies.


The impact of demographic adjustment, new formats and new technological changes on employment has emerged in the textile industry.


Under the change of environment, along with the increasing labor cost, textile enterprises are going to adjust and adjust continuously, or spanfer production to low labor cost areas, or reduce the number of employees, and replace them with machines. And strengthening textile digitalization, intelligent equipment development, promoting the construction of intelligent workshop, cultivating large-scale customized development, promoting the innovation of manufacturing mode and business mode, and forming a new driving force of textile economic development have become one of the important goals of textile industry reform.


Take Hengli Group as an example, the company is one of the earliest enterprises in the field of industry to explore intelligent manufacturing. The group has gradually changed the development mode of enterprises from "demographic dividend" to "technology dividend" through "machine for labor", "changing machinery", "complete sets of single tables", "intelligent data exchange" and so on. The group weaving section introduces the industry-leading automatic wear machine and automatic stranding machine to create a pre processing intelligent production workshop, which saves labor costs by 80% and improves efficiency by 700%.


In recent years, Sheng Hong group, which actively adapted to the development trend of new technologies of big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, has achieved an average annual cost savings of 15 million yuan by implementing the "Internet +" technology, machine substitution and Internet of things technology. The production line can save 127 workers, reduce the utilization rate by 34%, reduce the failure rate by 55.9%, increase the production per person by 29.8%, and increase the production capacity by 33%.


In addition to big enterprises such as Hengli and Sheng Hong, as a whole, promoting intelligent manufacturing and reducing efficiency, many small and medium enterprises in the textile industry have begun to adopt intelligent devices and data management in parts of production and operation so as to improve efficiency and reduce employment.


The blue book also points out that the impact of technological innovation on employment has two sides: "substitution effect" and "creation effect". At present, the two effects are being superimposed on China's human resources market. The new technology revolution will adjust and optimize the post demand structure of human resources market, to a certain extent, alleviate the excessive demand of ordinary workers, and create more and more matching job opportunities for college graduates, but at the same time, it also puts forward higher requirements for human capital. If the reform of higher education and vocational education can not be followed up in time, the training scale of skilled personnel can not be expanded. The general education and innovation and entrepreneurship education in computer science and other disciplines are not enough. The difficulties in employment of some institutions and some professional graduates will still be difficult to resolve, while the compound, skilled, innovative and entrepreneurial labor force will be seriously short. The contradiction between technical unemployment and high-level talent shortage will exist simultaneously, and the contradiction of skills structure will further intensify.


Shen, manager of Jiangsu Guotai Yida Industrial Co., Ltd., in an interview, said that with the spanformation of the company's business in recent years, the company needs both the professional background of textiles and the talents of foreign languages, foreign trade, management and computer. To meet the demand, the company has launched a long-term talent spanfer plan with Soochow University.


Tianjin University of Technology, Wuhan Textile University and other institutions responsible for each person to the China textile daily reporter said, with the continuous upgrading of the industry, the enterprise's demand for talents is more diverse.


According to Pan Aihua, deputy secretary and vice president of the school of textile and clothing engineering, Soochow University, in order to meet the needs of talents in the rapid spanformation of the textile industry, the Institute adjusts the strategy of personnel training in a timely manner, and trains engineering practice and innovative ability throughout the whole process of personnel training. The aim is to enhance students' engineering practice ability and engineering research ability. Relying on the national key subjects, national experimental teaching demonstration centers, state-level virtual simulation experimental teaching centers and modern silk National Engineering Laboratory, a set of high-quality textile engineering training personnel training system with innovative thinking and practical ability has been formed.


3 pay close attention to the impact of external risks on employment.


The blue book pointed out that we should seize the opportunities of new economic development, vigorously develop new industries and new formats, develop a large number of high-quality jobs suitable for the employment orientation of the new generation of labor force, and promote the high quality development of employment and economy. At the same time, we should avoid the instability in the development of new industries and new formats and bring unemployment risks. For this point, the advantages of the textile industry as a livelihood industry are still obvious.


As an important livelihood industry, the textile industry has created a large number of jobs. At present, the employment population of the whole industry is over 20 million. In 2015, the number of employed Enterprises above designated size was 9 million 462 thousand, accounting for 10% of all industries above designated size. Most of the textile industry workers are rural labor spanfer, and the whole industry provides about 10000000 jobs and hundreds of billions of yuan cash income for rural migrant workers every year.


The blue book also suggests that the ability to resist risks in traditional industries is essential for stabilizing employment. The blue book points out that the direct impact of trade friction on foreign trade production and operation enterprises may lead to short-term business difficulties and reduce employment opportunities for some enterprises. The sustained development of economic and trade frictions may lead to a global adjustment of supply chains, and some related enterprises may rearrange production lines, which will have a more profound impact on China's employment growth and employment structure adjustment over a longer period of time.


Statistics show that the total number of employed persons in China's industrial sector has dropped from 99 million 772 thousand in the peak period in December 2014 to 80 million 585 thousand in August 2018. The employment volume of technology industry, traditional dominant industries and other manufacturing sectors has also decreased to varying degrees, especially in the labor-intensive traditional industries. The relevant people in the Academy of Social Sciences said that this process actually occurred before the Sino US economic and trade frictions, so the decline in employment in China's industrial sector came from many factors. But from the trend, 2018 has accelerated trend compared with the decline in 2015~2017, which is related to the negative impact of Sino US trade friction.


According to the relevant personages of the Academy of Social Sciences, over 3 of China's exports to the United States are concentrated in traditional labor-intensive industries such as toys, furniture, textile and clothing, leather products and electrical equipment manufacturing. Foreign trade processing enterprises have almost no risk resistance to trade policy fluctuations. Therefore, if the United States imposed higher tariffs, the export of these industries to the United States might stop. Moreover, due to the rising cost of land, labor and other elements, the processing trade, which is the main mode of subcontracting, is in a state of "squeezing down" in the international industrial chain, and the resulting shift of industries may lead to a decline in the employment rate of some highly dependent industries.


Ji Xiaofeng, Secretary General of the China Textile and clothing education association, told the China textile daily reporter that external risks such as changes in the trade situation may have an impact on the employment of some textile and general workers. However, from the distribution of Higher Vocational Colleges and universities, there has been no obvious fluctuation in 2018. At present, the demand for talents in technology and management is still pressing.